Pittsburgh Steelers GM Omar Khan hasn’t been on the job for as long as some general managers in the league. But he’s certainly put effort into trying to address roster shortcomings. He’s invested in the offensive line heavily. He’s also tried to keep strengths going, like with the defensive line. But the quarterback position continues to plague him and the organization. Will Aaron Rodgers sign, and if so, when?
Until Rodgers puts ink to paper in Pittsburgh, things aren’t looking good for the Steelers. Pro Football Focus evaluated all 32 NFL rosters, and the Steelers ranked 21st in the league. The biggest problem? The offense, of course. In 2024, the Steelers ranked 25th in yards per play.
The Steelers’ offense was nothing to write home about in 2024… Pittsburgh did make some changes by trading away wide receiver George Pickens, bringing in D.K. Metcalf and waving goodbye to quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. It likely won’t lead to more success in 2025, though, unless the X-factor below signs a contract.
Unsurprisingly, that X factor is QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite legendary QB Terry Bradshaw’s less-than-glowing thoughts on Rodgers, the Steelers still seem to be locked in on Rodgers as their starter for 2025. And PFF thinks that the Steelers’ results in 2025 are completely dependent on Rodgers.
The Steelers are the only team on this list whose X-factor isn’t even on the active roster… The 41-year-old was still solid last year with the Jets, posting a 76.3 PFF passing grade that was a top-15 mark in the league. If he does indeed sign with Pittsburgh, the team could make the playoffs. If he doesn’t and the Steelers are forced to start Mason Rudolph, they could be picking near the top of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Well, if PFF is right, Rodgers is the textbook definition of an X factor. If he signs and plays well, the Steelers will be among the teams fighting for a playoff spot. If he doesn’t sign, then the Steelers will have a high draft pick in 2026.
Which, all things considered, could be a good thing for the Steelers’ long-term prospects. After all, they don’t seem to have a solution in mind at the quarterback spot. Maybe it could be sixth-round pick Will Howard? That seems unlikely, but Mason Rudolph thinks that Howard has “a lot of tools” after working alongside him this spring. Perhaps he could be a pleasant surprise.
But the truth is, if the Steelers genuinely have a bottom-half roster in the league, they need more talent. Khan did a good job adding players like C Zach Frazier, G Mason McCormick, and LB Payton Wilson in the 2024 NFL Draft. And PFF likes the addition of rookieDerrick Harmon to an already-talented defensive line room.
PFF also thinks RB Kaleb Johnson is the rookie to keep an eye on in 2025, especially if Rodgers doesn’t sign.
With Najee Harris signing with the Chargers, Kaleb Johnson projects as the Steelers’ starting running back from Day 1. The third-round pick enjoyed a massive breakout at Iowa in 2024, placing fifth in the nation with 1,060 yards after contact. And while Pittsburgh struggled to protect the quarterback last year, the team managed to rank ninth in PFF run-blocking grade. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t sign with the Steelers, Johnson should receive a ton of touches in his rookie year.
Heck, with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith calling the shots and head coach Mike Tomlin’s offensive philosophy marrying ball control and minimizing risks, Johnson could be in line for a lot of carries even with Rodgers in the building.
But the overall picture isn’t thrilling for the Steelers. There are questions along the offensive line, mainly at the tackle position. Will Broderick Jones be better back at his natural left tackle position? And will Troy Fautanu stay healthy this year?
And despite the addition of Metcalf at wide receiver, the rest of the room isn’t giving a lot of people confidence. Calvin Austin III had his best season as a pro in 2024, but it’s unlikely that he will be a full-fledged WR2 in this league. And we have no idea what Roman Wilson will look like after barely touching the field as a rookie due to injuries. Analyst Sam Monson thinks Wilson is a breakout candidate, but can the Steelers depend on him yet?
Then there’s the age of key players on the defensive side of the ball. Cam Heyward has been a stalwart on the line, and he had a fantastic 2024 after an injury-plagued 2023. But how much longer can he keep playing? Undoubtedly, that’s part of why the Steelers drafted Harmon. But it’s hard to replace a legend like Heyward.
Same goes for OLB T.J. Watt. He’s entering the final year of his contract and is on the wrong side of 30. The Steelers have Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, and rookie Jack Sawyer. But Watt is the franchise leader in sacks. That is a situation that bears monitoring this offseason and for the future.
You can argue whether or not the Steelers are the 21st-ranked roster in the league. But you cannot argue that there aren’t plenty of questions across the roster, starting with the quarterback position. That’s why you can make the case that Aaron Rodgers is the Steelers’ X factor for 2025. So much hinges on whether he signs or not and how well he plays if he does. Because a high-quality quarterback can paper over a lot of issues elsewhere on the roster. If Rodgers signs with the Steelers and plays at a high level in 2025, they won’t finish 21st in the league.
The question we should be asking is whether short-term success in 2025 robs the Steelers of a chance to seriously improve for the future. Because if the Steelers are picking somewhere around 20 next year, they’ll have to invest a lot of picks to move up for a potential franchise quarterback. A bad season could make it a lot less expensive for the Steelers, preserving picks for investing in other areas of the roster.
As for the rest of the AFC North, the Steelers aren’t the lowest-ranked roster. The Cleveland Browns are, and they can’t go any lower. PFF has them ranked 32nd. The Baltimore Ravens are at almost the exact opposite spot of the Browns, coming in at 2, just behind the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cincinnati Bengals are only three spots higher than the Steelers, coming in at 18 despite offensive stars led by QB Joe Burrow.
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