The biggest trade domino that could fall this season across the NBA is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks star has not advanced past the first round in Milwaukee over the past three seasons now. His aging co-star Damian Lillard is expected to miss next season with a torn Achilles, and the Bucks have very limited resources to upgrade the surrounding roster.
It’s not yet clear whether Antetokounmpo will be asking out of Milwaukee, given a lack of appealing options to improve. Shams Charania of ESPN.com reported earlier this month that he is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining with the Bucks, but both sides should have some clarity on that front in the coming weeks.
If Antetokounmpo does push for a new home, he could have some leverage with only two fully guaranteed years remaining on his deal. The Bucks probably will only get the max value for him if they send him to a place he wants to sign with for the long term.
While there will be plenty of suitors lined up for Antetokounmpo if he hits the market, Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com speculates he may want to stay in the East due to the competition level.
“The key to me is the Giannis domino effect,” Windhorst said on ESPN’s Get Up Thursday. “Where he might get traded and what that trade might look like, both with the teams involved in the trade and the other teams that come around it. Giannis is going to say a lot of things and while I can list you a bunch of teams that can make a big offer for him, if I was Giannis and I’m looking at the lay of the land right now, I want to stay in the Eastern Conference. I don’t want to go to a Western Conference team because it’s going to be a really hard mountain to climb.”
There are not many teams in the Eastern Conference that are positioned to trade for Antetokounmpo and still have enough leftover to contend. However, Windhorst believes the Celtics would be in that group if they make a push for the Bucks star.
“I don’t think Miami has the perfect set of circumstances,” Windhorst said of possible suitors. “I think Boston was more interesting before the devastating Tatum injury because I don’t know what you can possibility get from Jayson Tatum next year. Before that, I think that was a real conversation and maybe it still could be.”
Windhorst also pointed out a Celtics division rival as another potential landing spot if Antetokounmpo wants out of Milwaukee but prefers to stay in the East.
“I think you have to look at the teams that could make a trade for Giannis that the Bucks would accept and on the other side of the trade would have a contending team so Boston would be on that list,” Windhorst said. “I think New York would be on that list. There are some difficulties when you talk about aprons and second aprons with teams trying to make trades but there are some teams in the Eastern Conference you could construct an ability to get this done.”
There are countless hoops that the Celtics would have to jump through in any potential Antetokounmpo pursuit. The team would need to get below the second apron in order to aggregate salaries in any swap. The fact that Tatum could miss all of next season would surely be a major factor in Antetokounmpo’s decision as Windhorst mentioned.
Just exactly what the Bucks would be looking for in an Antetokounmpo trade package would be big as well since they currently do not control their own first-round draft picks until 2030. Would win-now talent from Boston interest them? Or more likely could that talent bring appealing young players and draft assets from a third team that would turn into an appealing offer?
Ultimately, there are plenty of dominoes that would have to fall for this to even become a possibility. Giannis hasn’t said he wanted out yet and he may not push to go East as Windhorst suggested. However, this is a situation worth watching this offseason for Boston since a potential deal involving the former MVP will be the first big domino to fall in what is predicted to be a wild offseason.