The Kansas City Chiefs are a dynasty because they have the best quarterback in the NFL. But having the best tight end in the sport for the better part of a decade didn’t hurt, either, and the connection will go down as one of the most accomplished in league history.
Tight end Travis Kelce could retire tomorrow and go down as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Fortunately for Chiefs fans, that won’t be the case. He’s back for another lap around the AFC.
However, it may very well be his last. With a lucrative, fulfilling off-field life waiting for him in retirement, Kelce has plenty of reasons to step away from the game. After a decade spent dominating the sport, his production is declining, too.
His decline is pronounced, and it has been noticed by analysts around the sport. Chiefs fans are saying the same thing about Kelce’s drop in Pro Football Focus’ tight end rankings, which landed him at No. 7.
“While Kelce has been the second-most-valuable tight end over the past two seasons, per PFF WAR, 2024 represented the lowest-graded season of his career (71.7),” John Kosko wrote. “Age looks to be catching up to the future Hall of Famer, as his 91.4 PFF overall grade from 2022 appears to be a thing of the past.”
Kelce is between Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson and Philadelphia Eagles veteran Dallas Goedert. Also ahead of him are George Kittle, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, and Sam LaPorta.
Seeing Kelce so far from the top of any list is bound to raise eyebrows, but the ranking isn’t unreasonable. Kelce missed virtually his entire rookie season. Since then, he had never posted a year with fewer than eight yards per target, until 2024 when that mark dropped to just 6.2. After ascending to stardom in 2016, he had never dipped below 65 yards per game until 2024, when his 823 yards came out to just 51.4 yards per game.
The decline is here, and it’s significant.
That doesn’t mean Kelce is ineffective. Being ranked seventh in the league is nothing to sniff at, and there’s a reasonable case to move him up a spot or three. The days of his dominance, though, seem to be over. He lost over half of a yard per route run and a yard after the catch per reception (per Pro Football Focus). Kelce’s explosiveness is diminished and he isn’t the same field stretcher from his years past.
Kelce’s regression is a surprising reminder that dynasties don’t last forever. Rosters turnover, players grow old, and the demand for new talent becomes impossible to ignore. The Chiefs no longer have the NFL’s best tight end. But if the worst version of Kelce is still far above average, Kansas City can still send him to retirement with another Super Bowl ring.