When Lukas Van Ness chased down Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields for a solo sack in his first game as a Green Bay Packer, I had visions of double digit sacks in his first year as a pro.
On that play, Van Ness ignored a play fake and took a perfect angle on the nimble Fields to corral him from behind and sling him to the turf along the sideline. It had Packers fans slapping nicknames on him such as “The Luke Ness Monster.”
Double digit sacks didn’t materialize, however. The rookie defensive end from Iowa finished the season with four total sacks, showing flashes at times and offering some promise for what might lie ahead, but at no point looking anything like the second coming of Clay Matthews III.
In his second season, Van Ness showed us that he indeed was no Matthews. If anything, he regressed a bit, not just statistically, but from an eye-test perspective, on a Packers defense whose pass rush was far too often anemic.
Still, I refuse to listen to fans who call the athletic Van Ness an absolute bust. Now, if we don’t see significant improvement in year three? I’ll listen. Right now, however, we can all admit he does look far more like Nick Perry than Matthews.
That said, amidst the consternation and doubt, it’s only fair to remember that Van Ness was drafted for what the Packers envisioned he could become in a few seasons – he was a developmental player, albeit one that cost some pretty hefty draft capital at his 13th-overall price tag (ouch). I’m willing to hold out hope and give the 6-5 linebacker a chance to refine his game and adapt to defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s system.
Could his relative regression in year two have been in part due to the transition to a 4-3? During his rookie season, Van Ness recorded 32 tackles – 24 of them solo – with 8 TFLs, 8 run stuffs and 10 quarterback hits, for 18 total pressures. During that season, according to the Packers, he became the first Packers rookie to post four-plus sacks and eight-plus tackles for a loss since – you guessed it – Matthews in 2009. He also recorded a sack, a tackle for a loss and a quarterback hit in the playoffs that year.
Last season, he upped his quarterback pressures to 23, but regressed in sacks (3), TFLs (6), run stuffs (6) and solo tackles (20). More importantly, there seemed to be fewer flashes of his ultimate potential, and at times it left fans either screaming “bust,” or at the very least wondering if Van Ness would ever offer more than rotational-level production. Even a mid-season trade of Preston Smith didn't coax more production from Van Ness -- instead, it was Brenton Cox Jr. who stepped up to fill the void.
The good news is the guy is still an above average athlete – the tools are still there. Coming out of college, his RAS was a strong 9.39, and the NFL's Next Gen Stats gave him a 6.40 prospect grade, which by Next Gen’s metrics suggested he would “become a good starter within two years.”
It’s year three incoming. Mark Oldacres over at PackersWire.com reported back in March that year-three jumps for pass rushers are, in fact, not uncommon, going so far as naming Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary as one of those who blossomed in his third season. He also noted that guys like Bradley Chubb, Leonard Floyd and Dante Fowler Jr. are examples of pass rushers who made the leap in their third campaigns.
In short, it’s borderline now or never. Perhaps the Packers replacing Jason Rebrovich with DeMarcus Covington as defensive line coach will unlock Van Ness’ substantial potential. Whatever does the trick, it’s time for Van Ness to take a big step forward if the Packers’ pass rush is going to make a leap in 2025.