Under Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots had exactly three losing seasons with negative point differential in Belichick's 24 years as the team's head coach and primary shot-caller. There were the 2000 Patriots (5-11, -62), when Belichick and his crew were flipping the roster and establishing a competitive core. And then, there were the 2020 Patriots (7-9, -27) and the 2023 Patriots (4-13, -130), when the post-Tom Brady era really started to bite the franchise in the posterior.
The 2024 season under Jerod Mayo was a holdover and nothing more. This was a team in transition without a true end goal, and the 4-13 record with a -128 point differential was pretty much more of the same.
On January 12, 2025, the Patriots went back to the future with the hire of Mike Vrabel as their head coach. Vrabel, who led the Tennessee Titans from 2018-2023 and spent last season as a consultant for the Cleveland Browns (don't hold that again him), of course played linebacker and red zone tight end for New England from 2001-2008, so he's certainly familiar with the championship culture.
Vrabel is matched with general manager Eliot Wolf, who began his time with the organization as a scouting consultant in 2022, rising quickly up the org chart, especially after Belichick's departure.
What was dominantly evident for these two men was that they would have to reform and reclaim what the Patriots were, because they weren't that anymore. And to that end, the Wolf/Vrabel brain trust did as much as possible to build around what was there with the kinds of players that made sense to them.
Free agency saw a major haul in the person of former Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Milton Williams, who signed a four year, $104 million contract with $63 million guaranteed. That made Williams one of the NFL's highest-paid interior disruptors, but based on the tape he put up in the Eagles' 2024 championship season, it's warranted. Williams can beat blocking from anywhere on the line, but he's particularly evil when he's caving in opposing interior offensive linemen. Williams had eight sacks, 54 total pressures, and 19 stops in just 653 snaps last season, so his numbers in 2025 and beyond could eclipse what he already has.
The Patriots also signed ex-Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane to a three-year, $33 million contract with $20.6 million guaranteed. This was an important addition, as New England's linebacker corps was undefined last season, and Spillane is a very smart player who does just about everything at a high level.
And at the third level of the defense, there was the signing of veteran cornerback Carlton Davis III to a three-year, $54 million contract with $34.5 million guaranteed. Davis, who allowed 43 catches on 72 targets for 583 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, seven pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 87.9, can do well in any coverage.
But as much man coverage as the Patriots have played in recent years, and as much as that will continue under new defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, it's important to note that when in man coverage in 2024, Davis allowed 17 catches on 41 targets for 321 yards, one touchdown, five pass deflections, and an opponent passer rating of 67.2. Man coverage is Davis' wheelhouse, and he went to the right team for that.
New England did make some offensive moves in free agency with the additions of receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, as well as center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses, but the real table-setters on that side of the ball came in the draft.
With the fourth overall pick, the Patriots selected LSU left tackle Will Campbell. The idea is for Campbell to anchor the left side of an offensive line that alternated between terrible and worse for most of 2024, and while there are legitimate questions about his arm length and how that affects his ability to deal with speed-rushers off the edge, nobody in the building is concerned.
"I wouldn't say it gave pause," Wolf said of Campbell's 77 3/8-inch wingspan (seventh percentile among offensive linemen since 1999), and his 32 5/8-inch arm length (21st percentile). "It's something when you get that metric, you go back and look at it. I think we only started measuring wingspan like 10 years ago, so historically for the last 10 years, maybe it's an outlier. Ultimately, it always comes back to the tape, and some of his unique athletic ability and ability to bend and extend. Even though he doesn't have that long wingspan, [there's] his ability to recover, and his ability to anticipate. For a young guy, he's pretty polished for an offensive lineman, so we just kept coming back to the tape, and seeing those things, and didn't think they affected him too much."
So, we'll see how that goes.
In the second round, New England took Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson, and there are no attendant issues with Henderson as a "lightning" back with his speed, agility, and versatility. Last season for the national champs, Henderson gained 1.010 yards and scored 10 rushing touchdowns on just 145 carries — that's a gaudy 7.0 yards per carry average, with 37 forced missed tackles, and 21 runs of 15 or more yards. Factor in his 26 catches on 30 targets for 281 yards and a touchdown, and the fact that he lined up in the slot or outside on 30 snaps last season, and it's easy to extrapolate Henderson all over the place in Josh McDaniels' offense.
But the real get for second-year quarterback Drake Maye is the third-round selection of Washington State receiver Kyle Williams, who may be the best pure separator in the 2025 draft class. Last season for the Cougars, Williams caught 70 passes on 101 targets for 1,196 yards and 14 touchdowns. 14 of those catches on 24 targets came on throws of 20 or more air yards for 454 yards and six touchdowns. For a Patriots receiver group that totaled 14 deep receptions on 52 targets last season (ouch), the Williams addition could well be the most important one for this offense.
Which brings it all back to Maye. In his rookie season, the North Carolina alum did his level best behind an offensive line that couldn't consistently protect, and a receiver corps that couldn't consistently separate. Maye still completed 225 of 338 passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 88.1. That put him behind the Rookie Big Three of Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams, and more in the pack of Michael Penix Jr., whose rookie performances were tantalizing at times, but ultimately frustrating.
Still, Maye showed more than enough to give the impression that he can be The Guy in the right environment. With better protection and better receivers, Maye has the tools to ascend.
So, to the Big Question: With all these changes, are the Patriots primed for their first winning season since 2021, and their first playoff win since the 2018 season, when they took their last Super Bowl?
On the surface, and in an AFC East in which the Buffalo Bills are the only team without major unanswered question, all these changes and improvements should get the franchise back to respectability. The secret sauce from there will be a combination of all those new defensive parts jelling will with the talent already on the roster (which is considerable), and an offense that will have to go from zero to 60 in a fairly big hurry.
If that all happens, and the Patriots are able to begin a new competitive culture? Well, stranger things have happened — in fact, they happen just about every season at least once.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).