Ace Bailey is almost universally expected to go with the third pick in the draft, which is currently held by the Philadelphia 76ers. But with an unusually competitive group of teams picking in the top three, there’s always the possibility that some funny stuff happens once the draft rolls around. If there is a surprise in the top three, Bailey would likely be the target for the Charlotte Hornets with the fourth overall pick.
**Height:** 6’7.5″
**Wingspan:** 7’0.5″
**Standing reach:** 8’11”
**Weight:** 202.8 pounds
**Vertical:** 27.5″ no step, 34.5″ max
**Shot making at size, defensive potential**
Bailey’s hype almost starts and ends with his shot making. The big appeal for him as a high school prospect was his ability to create looks for himself, and he showed that to an extent at Rutgers. He does a great job planting and rising up on balance to shoot over the top of defenders. He has an expansive bag of pull-ups, turnarounds, fadeaways, and floaters. There are few players that have the audacity, confidence, and ability to make some of the shots Bailey makes.
He’s also a capable shooter off ball. He catches the ball ready to shoot and is very organized with his footwork. Rutgers drew up a lot of sets for him off inbounds and other game situations, and he was good as a movement shooter. He should be able to contribute as a spot up shooter right away.
While he’s primarily known for his offense, Bailey has very good defensive attributes. He’s very long and has a very tall standing reach. While he’s not always as engaged as he needs to be, he still contributed 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals per 36 minutes. The tools of a good defender are there and he shows flashes of ability. He needs to be more consistent here, but in the right situation he can be a plus defender.
**Feel for the game, ball handling**
Bailey has a concerningly low assist rate and assist to turnover ratio for a player that’s likely drafted with hopes of him becoming a franchise cornerstone. He averaged just 1.3 assists against 2.0 turnovers per game. He gets tunnel vision as he looks for a shot and can be very reckless with his shot selection. There are a whole lot of instances of him shooting pull-ups over double teams or dribbling into heavily contested threes less than 10 seconds into the shot clock.
And Bailey doesn’t seem particularly concerned with his shot selection.
Bailey played for a bad Rutgers team, which skews some of his advanced numbers a bit, but he still didn’t excel in any advanced statistical category. If anything, most of his numbers were very poor for a potential top three pick.
Bailey’s spotty decision making is accentuated by his less than stellar handle. He puts virtually no pressure on the rim and uses his handle to get into jumpers. In an upset loss to Kennesaw State, Ace put up an especially concerning shot profile.
> Ace Bailey is 6’10 and shot 2/7 on two’s today. All 7 shots were jumpshots. Ace took 17 shots today, and not a single one was close to the restricted area. His closest shot to the rim was an 11 foot jump shot. Only went to the line once with 17 shots… 3 turnovers 0 assists too [pic.twitter.com/uJV2C3NFVn](https://t.co/uJV2C3NFVn)
>
> — g (@freewave3) [November 24, 2024](https://twitter.com/freewave3/status/1860784906491539799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
He has some nice looking handles when he goes iso, but he hasn’t shown the ability to use that handle to get downhill or create advantages for himself.
Bailey is very highly regarded as a prospect and seems like a sure bet to go number three overall. While he clearly is very talented, there are some glaring flaws in his game that can hold him back from reaching his potential.
To me, I’d be very wary of the Hornets selecting Bailey if he were to somehow fall out of the top three. While the shot making looks like that of a superstar, there has to be something else there. Guys have to do other things well to be granted a long enough leash to play with such a difficult diet. Bailey lives and dies on tough jump shots, and it’s hard to see that as a projectable path to a high impact NBA player.
I see Bailey’s most likely ceiling as a Michael Porter Jr type of player–a flamethrower that can get extremely hot but needs a lot of play making around him to keep the offense moving. That type of player requires some elite shooting that Bailey hasn’t shown yet. If the spot up shooting just stays in the “good” range, he likely caps out as a bench chucker or “best player on a terrible team” type of player. I’m just not optimistic about players with a poor feel for the game amounting to true difference makers. I’m okay missing on those guys.
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