People judge NFL players and coaches by wins.
Every all-time great is measured by what they accomplished on the biggest stage. Tom Brady may hold almost every significant passing record, but he’s best remembered for his seven Super Bowl victories. Vince Lombardi has the third-highest winning percentage of all time. Still, his five championships, including the first two Super Bowls in the 1960s, got his name etched on the Super Bowl trophy.
Likewise, what players and coaches don’t accomplish can taint their legacy. Dan Marino could make every throw on the field and held every significant passing record when he retired, but he never won a ring. In his second season, he lost to the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XIX; he never returned to the Super Bowl.
Marv Levy and Bud Grant combined for 301 regular-season victories as head coaches of the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, respectively. Still, people remember them as the coaches who could never win the big one, despite each reaching four Super Bowls during their tenures.
Through three seasons as the head coach of the Vikings, Kevin O’Connell has won plenty in the regular season. His .667 winning percentage ranks fourth among current coaches and 15th all-time among coaches with at least three years of tenure. O’Connell accomplished that despite losing Kirk Cousins midway through the 2023 season and starting 2018 draft bust Sam Darnold in 2024.
But the Vikings have yet to win in the postseason under O’Connell. They made the playoffs in 2022 and 2024, holding a better record than their opponents heading into each game. However, the Vikings lost to the Daniel Jones-led New York Giants two years ago and the Los Angeles Rams four months ago.
People have placed much of the blame on the quarterbacks O’Connell started in those matchups. Cousins infamously threw well short of the first-down marker on fourth-and-eight on a potential game-tying drive against the Giants. Darnold laid an egg against the Rams, taking nine sacks for a combined loss of 82 yards while averaging a meager 6.1 yards per attempt. He looked more like the quarterback fans grew accustomed to over his first six seasons.
O’Connell received a contract extension shortly after the 2024 season ended. That gives him ample time to work and grow with 2024 first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with a torn meniscus. But does the long-term security of the contract extension offer O’Connell the luxury of a short-term grace period that may be needed with a first-time starter at quarterback?
“QB wins” is a whole debate in itself, and not what this article is about. Still, since 2018, teams that start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback are 61-3. That includes one high school state championship, one high school football national championship, and a College Football Playoff National Championship.
That isn’t to say that the Vikings won’t lose in McCarthy’s first season as quarterback. But it does establish an expectation for him. Before signing with Michigan, McCarthy reportedly told other incoming recruits that if they wanted to “party and chase girls, go somewhere else.”
Being part of the team wasn’t enough for McCarthy; he wanted to make a difference. If he held that standard for himself and others before signing with Michigan, what kind of personal responsibility does he have for himself? And what’s his expectation for others?
On Wednesday, O’Connell told reporters that there was full participation in Organized Team Activities (OTAs), a voluntary offseason program. Justin Jefferson skipped the last two years of OTAs. Even if contract negotiations played a part in last year’s absence, he missed valuable time getting acclimated to a new quarterback. Now, even after securing the bag and not being in any danger of losing his spot on the depth chart, he’s out catching passes from McCarthy.
Outside expectations are lukewarm for the Vikings. The unknown of a first-time quarterback plays a part in it. Replicating Darnold’s 4,319-yard, 35-touchdown performance will be a tall task. So is matching the team’s unexpected 14-3 record, which would have landed them a first-round bye week in most years.
Still, do those expectations outside the walls match what’s happening inside TCO Performance Center? The Vikings bolstered their offensive line through free agency and the draft. They signed veterans Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to ignite a non-existent interior pass rush. And they made an under-the-radar move by adding longtime assistant Keith Carter, who has been around some of the best running games of the past decade, to the offensive line room.
Minnesota was intentional in improving what ailed them in the biggest moments of the 2024 season. Would they be that aggressive in adding these pieces if they didn’t believe and expect McCarthy to embrace the expectations that come with an improved, Super Bowl-ready roster?
Would O’Connell himself go into a season not embracing the challenge of taking a first-time starting quarterback to a Super Bowl? As a rookie head coach in 2022, O’Connell took a Vikings team that struggled in close games in 2020 and 2021 and helped them win an NFL-record 11 one-score games.
When Cousins went down and the Vikings sat at 4-4, O’Connell helped Josh Dobbs navigate the team to two thrilling victories, keeping their playoff hopes alive through Week 18. And when fans expected a step backward in 2024 after parting ways with Cousins, the Vikings went 14-3, the second-highest win total in team history.
At some point, the expectation in the NFL is to win big games. The Vikings have won some thrillers in O’Connell’s three seasons, some carrying more weight than others. But, so far, postseason success has eluded him. Brad Childress and Mike Zimmer won their first playoff games in Year 4. Childress never endeared himself to fans or players and was fired less than a year later. Zimmer seemingly became a different version of himself after the Vikings lost a week after their Minneapolis Miracle win to end their Cinderella run.
Perhaps O’Connell could avoid the scrutiny of not winning in the playoffs this year. He’s beloved by players, helping build a strong reputation across the league. Fans love his passion and willingness to accept responsibility for the team’s shortcomings. If the optics look good in 2025, maybe a playoff run isn’t essential to his future.
But sooner or later, O’Connell will be judged less by his impressive regular-season record and more by whether he can deliver when it matters most. He’s authored some thrilling victories over the past three years, but none have come in the postseason.
If O’Connell can’t find playoff success soon, even with a first-time starter in McCarthy, the conversation could shift from when he’ll break through to whether or not he ever will. But if he can win with McCarthy in 2025, O’Connell won’t just silence that doubt — he’ll prove he’s capable of doing it for years to come.