Last summer, you will find very few Arsenal fans that did not have the same three positions as their priority transfers: Striker, left winger, defensive midfielder.
I wrote numerous blogs last year on the 3 players I wanted: Benjamin Sesko, Nico Williams and Martin Zubimendi. We ended up with none of them and ended up signing Ricardo Calaffiori and Mikel Merino, with Raheem Sterling on loan becoming our only attacking arrival.
Some will say that our poor summer last year is the reason we did not win the league. And it is hard to disagree.
Had we signed Sesko, Williams and Zubimendi, I am confident that it would have been Mikel Arteta leading his team to Premier League glory and not Arne Slott. Instead we finished 2nd for the 3rd season in a row.
So it is kind of ironic that this summer, the first two men in look increasingly to be Sesko and Zubimendi. And with a left winger also a high priority, we could be set to have the summer that most expected last year.
So what actually happened last year?
New striker
A new centre forward was clearly a priority last year. But anyone coming in had to be better than Gabriel Jesus and (if it was big big money) Kai Havertz.
Out short list seemed to be: Benjamin Sesko, Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Ollie Watkins. We would have won the league had we signed any of them. But a deal did not materialise.
All 4 basically decided to stay at their current clubs for “one more year”. Fair enough. Loyalty is a rare commodity in this game and it showed that we were targeting the right kind of players – if you go for players who will jump at the first opportunity to join you after 1-year at their current club (Sesko, Gyokeres), then do not be surprised in 12-24 months time when they are looking to move again.
In Sesko and Gyokeres case, the message came back clear to Arsenal – wait a year and we will be on the market next summer. I also think that a similar message was received from Isak and Watkins team, depending on if their teams got Champions League football.
So that left Arsenal with a bit of a conundrum – do we stick with Havertz and Jesus and wait to sign a primary target in 12 months, or do we go further down the list and end up spending big on someone we do not really want.
Back in 2016, we missed out on our primary target – Jamie Vardy. We then continued down the list until someone said “yes” to us. That man was Lucas Perez.
Perez would play just 11 Premier League games before being loaned out in his second season. After two years at the club he was sold to West Ham for £4m. It was £17m down the drain.
When you miss out on your primary targets, knowing that they will be available in 12 months, you will naturally be reluctant to tie up too much money in someone who might then be surplus to requirements in a year. And if you spend too much, that could massively impact the budget for the next summer window.
Dominc Solanke (£55m), Georginio Rutter (£40m), Joshua Zirkzee (£35m), Evanilson (£31m) and Igor Thiago (£27.5m) were the 5 most expensive forwards to move to a new Premier League team last summer. 6th on the list is Eddie Nketiah.
Only one (Evanilson) reached double figures in the Premier League, with the 5 scoring a combined 27 goals. I am not sure any of them would have been an upgrade on Gabriel Jesus (“but he got injured” – well done Captain Hindsight), and certainly were not an upgrade on Havertz.
I am also not sure if any of them would have driven us to the league title, when you consider they all would have played less minutes for The Arsenal than they did for their respective clubs. Signing any of them would have left Arsenal still needing a new striker this summer, whilst fans would label them as deadwood and we would be frustrated about carrying their transfer fee and wages for the next 5-years.
The club took a risk last season having missed out on Sesko, Gyokeres, Isak et al. they made the decision that the other strikers on the market were not better than what we had, resulting in us going into this season with Havertz and Jesus.
With us finishing 2nd, the risk did not pay off. But then no one could have predicted the injuries to Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz. And you do not go out and spend £30-50m on a 3rd choice striker “just in case”.
I am confident that we will end up with either Sesko or Gyokeres this summer.
Central midfielder
Like with Sesko and Gyokeres, I believe the message came back from Martin Zubimendi’s people that he would “like to spend one more year at Real Sociedad”.
At the same time as being linked with us, he also publically turned down and approach from Liverpool and was heavily linked with Barcelona.
Signing a defensive midfielder last summer was not urgent for Arsenal – we had Declan Rice, Thomas Partey and Jorginho as our options.
Had we go Zubimendi, I am confident that one of Partey of Jorginho would have departed. Instead, Partey was allowed to enter the last year of his contract and Jorginho was offered a one-year extension.
12-months on and Jorginho has departed following 2 and a half years at the club, whilst Partey’s renaissance in both form and fitness has led to talk of a new 2-year contract.
Having missed out on Zubimendi last summer, we went on and signed Mikel Merino. His recruitment has been a success and in Partey / Jorginho deep and Rice / Merino further forward, we had plenty of options.
Zubimendi incoming will give us two top draw options as our deepest midfielder, freeing up Rice to play exclusively as an 8, further forward, backed up by Merino.
I do not think failing to sign Zubimendi last summer cost us the league. Especially considering Partey’s return to form. And had we signed a stop gap defensive midfielder, we probably would have still been in the market for Zubimendi this summer.
Left winger
Finally on the list of last summer was a new left winger. It will still be a priority this, but below the midfielder and striker.
Arsenal still face a bit of a headache on the left wing – anyone coming in for big, big money must be better than Gabriel Martinelli. And that is not easy to do.
Nico Williams was top of most of our lists last season, but he is increasingly looking like a good player to miss out on. This season he has once again flattered to deceive and has not kicked on from his breakout Euro campaign. My feeling is he could be a great tournament player, but struggles for the consistency to do it for the entire season.
Last summer we were also heavily linked to Pedro Neto. His 4 Premier League goals and 6 assists is a worse output that Martinelli this season (with a similar minutes, and certainly would not have justified us spending £52m on him.
I am still struggling to come up with a list of half a dozen names that would be:
a) an upgrade on Martinelli
b) a realistic transfer target.
We have been linked heavily with Rodrygo, and I am just not entirely sure about him. Beyond the Madrid player, the other names we are linked to feel no better than Martinelli. And that is why perhaps we need to look for a lesser name. Someone who can play at the same level as Martinelli but does not come with the hype and pricetag.
Solving out left wing problem is still the toughest job as there are just not a lot of options. I would not be surprised if a name comes out of nowhere. someone that is not yet an established world star. And we would still have Martinelli, Trossard, Jesus (if he stays) and Havertz as options out wide.
My final thought on this is could we get a cut price Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa to provide us with both further squad depth upfront and also be an option alongside Martinelli on that right wing?
Last summer was disappointing, and it potentially cost us the league title. But there is no guarantee that we would have won the league had we signed out 7th or 8th choice striker.
You could argue that we should have been more aggressive with Sesko, Isak or Gyokeres and said “if it is not this year we won’t be back next”. But I am not sure that would have forced a deal through.
There are a lack of top strikers in world football, and if all 3 were adamant on staying, they would do so with the confidence that another top club would be in for them in 12 months. And all we would have done is burnt a bridge and diminished the opportunity of us signing them in 122 months.
We took the risk and kept our powder dry. It may have cost us the league. But it also stoped us spending £100m+ on players that were not good enough.
A final, final thought. We could have spent £140 on Solanke, Neto and Ugarte as “Plan C’s”. I do not think those 3 names lead us to the league title.
Have a good Saturday.
Keenos