Peter King knows more about the NFL than 99% of us, so when he went on Pro Football Talk and predicted that “in our lifetimes,” the NFL Draft would go away, that raised some eyebrows.
King, the retired football writer for Sports Illustrated and NBC Sports, speculated that college players eventually will jump from the SEC or Big 10 into the NFL as free agents rather than an amateur draft. If you believe in capitalism, the free market, and fairness, this idea is worthy of a standing ovation.
In no other business are collegians forced to work at a place not of their choosing. Top-rated law students in the county can practice in whatever city best suits them. The top-rated quarterback, Cam Ward, has very little leverage. The Tennessee Titans drafted him, and that’s where the No.1 overall pick must go.
Because the NFL is a monopoly, he has no other options. Caleb Williams, last year’s top overall draft pick, figured this out.
Most NFL athletes are millionaires. They don’t get much sympathy from the public. That still doesn’t make the draft any less American. However, fans love the draft because their interests are aligned with the teams they root for, not the individual players. They have been brainwashed to believe that the draft is necessary for competitive balance.
The draft doesn’t exist for competitive balance. The draft exists to control player costs. In the free-agent scenario that King suggests, the owners would be fighting amongst themselves to outbid each other for the premier players. That, in turn, substantially drives up salaries.
And as much fun as it would be to see Woody Johnson of the Jets and Jimmy Haslam of the Browns engage in a bidding war for Ward, there is another good reason why King’s idea won’t happen anytime soon, if ever.
The NFL Draft has become too big a TV event to disappear.
The draft has become the NFL’s signature offseason showcase. What was once a relatively low-key event held in ballroom hotels has grown into a colossal revenue-generating marketing opportunity. It’s an infomercial dressed up as a sporting event, even though no games are played, and afterward, most franchises and their fans don’t know if their team is better or worse.
It draws attendees and a massive TV audience. And ever since the league decided to move the draft to different cities every year, it has only gotten bigger.
King has suggested that the NFL could pivot to a replacement event. However, the NFL Draft as a TV product is pretty unassailable. Sure, there could be tweaks, including a faster pace. Those are minor complaints. The people have spoken. They love the NFL and have a seemingly insatiable desire for anything connected to the league. It’s become football Comic-Con, and precious few fans want to see anyone ruin the party.
What is entertaining isn’t always what is right or legal. Just look at college football. The popularity of that sport was built on restricting the rights of students. Fans don’t care about the law. They just want to cheer on their teams. You would hope that the day will come when NFL players can pick where they want to start their pro careers.
I hope King is right. I’m skeptical it will ever happen and certainly not in our lifetimes.