NBA Finals predictions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana Pacers
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The stage is set for the NBA Finals with a matchup between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. While it’s not the finals matchup that anyone predicted when the season began, our NBA Finals predictions will highlight why it’s going to be a fun series to watch.
Indiana got off to a slow start this season, holding a 10-15 record with a -4.2 point differential through their first 25 games. However, the Pacers settled in and got hot at the right time, posting a 40-17 record (.702 winning percentage) with a +5 point differential in the final 57 regular-season games.
Oklahoma City’s dominance is far more well-known. Beyond posting the best record this season (68-14), the Thunder broke the NBA record for single-season point differential (12.9). They’ve shown that same dominance throughout the NBA playoffs, setting up this Pacers vs Thunder matchup.
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Let’s dive into our NBA Finals predictions.
Game 1: Oklahoma City Thunder 119, Indiana Pacers 114
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Pacers have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA, which played a key role in their advancement through the Eastern Conference. New York had a defensive scheme to cause some problems, but not necessarily the full depth and personnel needed to contain both Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. That’s not the case in this matchup against Oklahoma City. In Game 1, Haliburton will encounter a Thunder defense that knew how to take away Anthony Edwards. It’s going to be an adjustment for Haliburton, allowing Oklahoma City to take the first game of the NBA Finals.
Game 2: Oklahoma City Thunder 121, Indiana Pacers 119
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Paycom Center has provided a tremendous home-court advantage for the Thunder this season. During the regular season, the Thunder posted a 35-6 record at home, making them one of just two teams with single-digit losses at home. It’s carried into the NBA playoffs, where Oklahoma City has an 8-1 record. Haliburton and Siakam will adjust to the Pacers’ defense, but the home-court advantage will help swing Game 2 to give the Thunder a 2-0 series lead in the NBA Finals.
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Game 3: Indiana Pacers 110, Oklahoma City Thunder 104
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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The last sweep in the NBA Finals came in 2018 and it was the last sweep since 2007. It just barely happens. Besides, the Pacers’ depth gives them something that the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets didn’t have in their matchups against Oklahoma City. Tyrese Haliburton might not lead Indiana’s scorers in a Game 3 victory, but his rare vision and basketball IQ will help Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard propel the Pacers to a close win.
Game 4: Oklahoma City Thunder 122, Indiana Pacers 108
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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After missing out on an opportunity to take a commanding three-game lead in the NBA Finals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander responds with a memorable performance on the road. Gilgeous-Alexander already has 10 games with 30-plus points and five-plus assists during the NBA playoffs, putting him in exclusive company with Jalen Brunson, LeBron James and Michael Jordan. He’ll reach that mark again in a decisive Game 4 victory in Indiana, putting the Thunder just one game away from becoming NBA champions.
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Game 5: Indiana Pacers 108, Oklahoma City Thunder 100
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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Time and time again, the Pacers have responded when their backs are against the wall. In OT against the Milwaukee Bucks, they overcame a seven-point deficit in the final 40 seconds to take the series. In Game 2 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, they stormed back from a seven-point deficit with 50 seconds left to steal another road game in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Then, in the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana found itself down 8 points in the final minute and rallied to win on a buzzer-beater. Rallying against slim odds is in the Pacers’ DNA and we believe they’ll pull it off again with a Game 5 victory in Oklahoma City.
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Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder 128, Indiana Pacers 109
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Thunder will win the NBA Finals. They have the defensive advantage and the depth that positions them to exploit the Pacers’ weaknesses, even beating them on the road twice. This isn’t just the best team in the NBA; Oklahoma City has a core that can make this the league’s new dynasty. In a blowout victory to take the NBA Finals, the Thunder’s championship era begins.
NBA Finals MVP: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander
NBA Finals predictions, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
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Jalen Williams will deliver some clutch performances and Chet Holmgren’s defense is going to have a significant impact on Siakam. However, the NBA Finals MVP has to go to the player who got his team to this stage and then delivered in the biggest moments. He will break the record (11) for most 30-point, 5-assists games in a single playoff tournament since 1963, making him the unquestioned choice for the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player award.