Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo recently released their most recent draft big board, and it came with some interesting intel on the top-5 of the draft.
Givony reveals the obvious that Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper will go #1 and #2, but it’s after that where the draft gets interesting. They slate Ace Bailey at #3 to the 76ers, but they did mention what would happen if they pass on Bailey.
Bailey has remained polarizing for NBA executives all season, with the wide understanding that he’ll need time to adjust before contributing winning minutes on a good team. There are varying levels of confidence around the NBA as to whether he will reach his ceiling ultimately, creating a layer of risk that has held him back from becoming the consensus option at No. 3.
The way the lottery played out didn’t necessarily help Bailey, but his range remains narrow. The possibility that Philadelphia, angling to win more games next season, opts to go a different direction could move him down the board a spot or two, with Charlotte and Utah likely to look hard should he be available — and his upside might become too difficult to pass on. — Woo
It’s clear Bailey is the first prospect with real risk involved. As Woo mentions, Philly will try to compete next season and may not have the patience to work through things with Bailey. It looks like if both Philly and Charlotte pass on Bailey, he’s not dropping past Utah at #5, according to this.
At #4, Givony and Woo have Edgecombe going to Charlotte, but again it looks like there’s a floor there at #5 with Utah.
Edgecombe measured better than expected in Chicago, standing taller, stronger and with a longer wingspan than previously known, which alleviated some concerns about needing to play point guard early in his pro career. He possesses dimensions similar to those of Boston Celtics players Derrick White and Jrue Holiday.
He appears to have a relatively narrow draft range, starting with Philadelphia at No. 3 and likely not extending further than Utah at No. 5.
Utah is in an interesting spot because everything depends on what happens with Philly and Charlotte. One surprise move means Utah comes away with either Edgecombe or Bailey. But will either of those teams want someone more than Bailey or Edgecombe. Not likely. It feels impossible that both might fall, too. That brings us to one of the biggest wildcards at the top of the draft, Tre Johnson, who Givony and Woo have the Jazz taking at #5. Here’s what Givony and Woo said about Johnson.
Johnson measured well at the combine (6-6 in shoes and a 6-10 wingspan), giving him strong size and length for a shooting guard and helping affirm his projection as one of the draft’s higher-upside scorers.
The way the lottery played out might work to Johnson’s benefit, with teams including Washington and Brooklyn in need of perimeter scoring and presenting potential landing spots inside the top eight picks.
Going to a team where he can grow into significant offensive responsibility would be good for Johnson’s development, as he’ll need to hone his decision-making and evolve into a more polished and consistent playmaker to maximize his upside. — Woo
Interestingly, they don’t mention anything about Utah even though that’s who they project drafting Johnson. It makes a ton of sense to put Johnson in a Jazz jersey and allow him to grow as the primary scoring option. A full season with the Jazz would give him a ton of reps and would enable him to improve as a passer/playmaker. He has excellent positional size, and what they don’t mention is that Johnson measured extremely well with his vertical at 37.5 inches. There’s a lot to like!
At #21, Givony and Woo have Newell falling to Utah at 21. Newell is an interesting prospect, who I assumed would go higher, so this feels like a steal for the Jazz if this happens. Woo mentions his perimeter shooting as a swing skill for him.
Teams are curious about the productivity and shooting flashes he showed at Georgia, the hope being that he’ll develop into a versatile option at power forward (where his combine measurements suggest he’ll likely play best) in the long run. If he can become more comfortable on the perimeter and sharpen his habits defensively, Newell has strong upside to tap into thanks to his size, mobility and motor. — Woo
Newell played with Cooper Flagg, Derik Queen, and Liam McNeeley on an insanely stacked Montverde team in high school. He was a highly recruited player that has a lot of potential. We’ll see if the Jazz are lucky enough to get him at #21. If that happens, they’ll be coming away from this draft with some really impressive talent.