The MLB Draft is in a little over a month and I think it’s about time to try a draft preview. Here’s something you should know before I write another word: I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about. I have never paid any attention whatsoever to college or high school baseball. I follow the draft every year, but I don’t make predictions on who the Cardinals will pick. When the clock is ticking and the Cardinals are on the clock, I have no preconceived notions on who they might pick or who even who they should pick. I just wait for them to pick someone. I know more about the NBA Draft than the MLB Draft and I don’t follow the NBA at all.
So instead of what A.E. Schafer or Blake Newberry might do - give you their opinions of draft prospects, I will instead share other people’s opinions. Maybe a consensus opinion if such a one exists. Based on those opinions, I may have an opinion of mine own, but clearly it is entirely informed by what other people are saying and not me looking at tape. So, very necessary disclaimer out of the way, let’s talk high school bats.
Ethan Holliday, SS/3B
Ranks: ESPN (#3), Keith Law (#1), MLB Pipeline (#1), BA (#1)
BA Scouting Grades: Hit: 55. Power: 60. Run: 40. Field: 50. Arm: 55.
MLB Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60
You probably do not need to be told about this guy. I’m a little surprised both scouting grades give him a 50 on defense only because I’ve seen a lot of comments on this site not be high on his defense. And maybe I’m reading into it too much, but three of the four sites list him as a SS/3B and the one that puts him as a SS even says he’s probably moving to 3B. He is 6’4, so it is almost entirely size-related given none of them seem particularly negative on his defense. Just thought it was funny.
Interestingly, and I’m going to sound more negative on Holliday than I really mean, but I did the next player first when writing these profiles, and it really put into focus how much scouts care about power. The next guy’s only real flaw listed in all of the scouting reports is “he won’t get to as much power as you’d like.” Holliday’s is that he’s probably going to need to move to a different position and he has swing-and-miss in his game. I find this absolutely fascinating.
BA: “There is some swing-and-miss to his game, but Holliday has a mature offensive mindset, controlling the strike zone and using the whole field. Holliday drives the ball well now and doesn’t have to sell out to generate that power, with the upside to develop into a 30-plus home run threat.”
Law: “He’s not a sure thing, given some of his swing-and-miss issues (such as on velocity up in the zone) and the mechanical adjustments he’ll have to make, but he offers the best combination of upside and probability in the class.”
MLB: “He has nice actions and solid arm strength at shortstop, but he won’t cover enough ground to stay there on a long-term basis. The Oklahoma State recruit projects better as a slugging third baseman and could be a quality defender on the hot corner.”
ESPN: “The main concerns here are that Holliday’s summer performances have been just OK and he didn’t face much elite velocity this spring, so he may just be a .240ish hitter going forward. The rest of the profile isn’t in dispute, so he could actually be a .240 hitter and still be a really good big leaguer.”
Eli Willits, SS
Ranks: ESPN (#2), Keith Law (#7), MLB Pipeline (#5), BA (#3)
BA Scouting Grades*:* Hit: 55. Power: 50. Run: 60. Field: 55. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting Grades*:* Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55
MLB Pipeline polled 22 higher-level members of the scouting industry (their description, not mine) about MLB Draft prospects and Willits actually got the second most amount of first place votes behind Holliday. One scouting director said he was the best overall player with tools, performance, and elite makeup. He’s also young for the draft class, being just 17-years-old. We know the Cardinals historically have loved drafting a young for their class player (Dylan Carlson comes to mind).
Baseball America’s power grade, judging by the other sites, seems on the optimistic side. To use a Cardinals comparison, he seems more like he has JJ Wetherholt power, which is going to be primarily doubles. There is much more of a consensus on his hit tool, his defense, and his speed, however.
McDaniel (ESPN): “He’s also a plus runner and good shortstop, so the lack of impact raw power due to his medium-sized frame doesn’t bother me; this kind of player is often underrated at this stage.”
BA: “He’s a switch-hitter with a short, tight swing from both sides. He stays balanced and has a simple approach and good bat control.”
Law: “He’s a definite shortstop with soft, easy hands, a plus arm, and plus running speed, with the upside of 70 defense.”
MLB: “He has outstanding bat-to-ball skills, making consistent line-drive contact while rarely straying from the strike zone. He may never have more than average raw power, but his hitting ability should enable him to tap into most of it and provide 15 homers per season.”
Billy Carlson, SS
Ranks: ESPN (#5), Law (#11), MLB Pipeline (#7), BA (#10)
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 45. Run: 50. Field: 60.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 65 | Field: 70
Carlson is technically a two-way prospect. Or at least he could be a pitching prospect if he wanted. Law suggests Carlson isn’t interested in pitching despite what Baseball America grades as a 60 fastball (up to 97 mph) and 50 control. That’s a good starting point for a pitching prospect. But if he’s drafted, he’ll probably be drafted as a position player.
As far as high school bats go, Carlson seems to have a high floor because of his defensive ability. Law calls him a defensive wizard with a 70 grade arm and you can see how high MLB Pipeline is on his defense as well. The reports on his bat, however, are not near as enthusiastic as you’d like for someone who you might draft 5th overall.
Law: “He bars his lead arm and his hands are so far back that he has trouble getting the bat head to the ball on time, so the power doesn’t always play in games and he’s very vulnerable to pitchers who can change speeds on him within at-bats.”
BA: “At the plate, Carlson typically has a selective approach and one of the lower swing-and-miss rates among top 2025 prep players. There are times where he hits too many balls on the ground, but his offensive game took a step forward in the 2024 spring season, with a line-drive approach and more power showing up in games”
MLB: “All summer, Carlson impressed with his athleticism and bat speed from the right side of the plate. It’s more of a line-drive approach at present with a good swing, but he has the chance to grow into more impact and average or better power, though not all evaluators were sold on his hit tool.”
ESPN: “The track record of prep position players of this age (he turns 19 just after draft day) suggests, in short, that they tend to be overrated at draft time because they’re facing exclusively younger competition at a point when age is very important.”
JoJo Parker, SS
Ranks: Ranks: ESPN (#9), Law (#9), MLB Pipeline (#10), BA (#11)
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 55. Run: 50. Field: 45. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50
I guess it’s premature to call a player who is technically a shortstop prospect something else, but none of the four sites I looked at were particularly optimistic he would stick at short. It’s almost treated as a foregone conclusion that he will move to either 2B or 3B. Maybe he can fake it, but he’s better at 2B or 3B is a clear consensus.
Also a consensus: his bat. Scouts love his bat. Law says that he is one of the best pure hitters in the draft and ESPN says that, along with Willits, he is one of the highest probability hitters in the draft. #5 might be a little too high for a guy like this, but you could do worse in the draft than “His bat should play, you just got to figure out where to put him.”
ESPN: “Parker isn’t seen as having a huge upside, but if a year from now he looks like a plus-plus hitter who will hit 15-20 homers while playing a solid second or third base, that concern will seem a little silly.”
Law: “He has incredible hand-eye coordination and a reasonably compact path to the ball, only whiffing twice in 86 pitches in the zone, according to 2024 data from Synergy. He doesn’t expand the zone easily and has shown he can catch up to good velocity.”
BA: “Parker is a fringy runner with fringy actions in the infield and average arm strength, but he could be stretched at shortstop at the next level and a better fit at third base or second.”
MLB: “He has a sound left-handed swing, manages the strike zone well and employs a gap-to-gap approach. He shows some feel for driving balls in the air and is posting more impressive exit velocities as he continues to gain muscle.”
Kayson Cunningham, SS
Ranks: Ranks: ESPN (#17), Law (#20), MLB Pipeline (#10), BA (#11)
BA Scouting: Hit: 60. Power: 50. Run: 55. Field: 50. Arm: 50.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50
We’re in the official part of the list where the Cardinals are not going to draft these guys.... well that is unless they somehow fall to the 2nd round. Unless the Cardinals surprise everyone. But it’s still worth covering these guys because you never know. He’s actually a very similar prospect to Parker, because nobody expects him to stay at SS, and everybody has good things to say about his bat.
Law calls him one of the best pure hitters of the draft and BA says he might be the best pure hitter of the draft. One thing, he’s 5’10 and according to Law, he’s really like 5’8. So there’s not a ton of projection here. He’ll also be 19 on draft day. Really does not feel like 5th overall pick here.
Law: “ He has elite hand speed and rarely swings and misses, with a whiff rate of just 9 percent at tracked events in 2024 according to data from Synergy Sports. The swing is a little flat through contact, so the power potential here is limited unless someone can get him to loft the ball more”
BA: “Some scouts will look at his size and want to push him to second base, but he has good hands, footwork and moves well to both sides with a strong arm, so he should get a chance to stick at shortstop.”
MLB: “Cunningham has exceptional barrel control and rarely swings and misses. He has a mature approach, covers the entire strike zone and utilizes the whole field. Though he’s not physical, his bat speed and ability to repeatedly barrel balls should enable him to get to 15-20 homers per season.”
Gavin Fien, 3B
Ranks: Ranks: ESPN (#13), Law (#13), MLB Pipeline (#26), BA (#31)
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 50. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 50.
MLB: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55
Seems a little unfair the scouting grades are from the two low sites on him, but I’m working with what I got. Fien was, in theory, supposed to be considered a better prospect when he was the best hitter on the showcase circuit. In Law’s words, he was making hard contact against all manner of competition. But when he faced high school competition, he was not near as impressive. Honestly, just read Law’s profile of him cause he actually could fall to the 2nd round and Law considers him a great buy low candidate. (Granted the Cardinals 2nd pick is all the way to 55 so this is a pipe dream)
BA: “Fien’s setup and swing is a bit unorthodox. He has a narrow setup and high handset with a slight hitch in his load and leg kick to start his lower half before firing through the zone with a barrel that often looks a bit stiff. He makes it work, though, and has hit quality pitching to a degree that provides confidence in his hitting ability and usable power”
MLB: “While he has an unorthodox setup with high hands, he made it work and was always on time, but this spring he had more trouble finding his rhythm and was often late in pulling the trigger at the dish. He’s added strength, and there could be more power to come as he advances.”
Law: “The result is his timing has been off — but he’s had it before, and that’s something that you can fix, a lot more easily than overhauling a swing or trying to teach someone to stop chasing sliders down and away. He’s got a 70 arm and while he’s almost certainly moving from shortstop to third base in pro ball, he’s a good enough athlete that he could be a plus defender at the hot corner.”
Steele Hall, SS
Ranks: Ranks: ESPN (#11), Law (#33), MLB Pipeline (#26), BA (#13)
BA Scouting: Hit: 50. Power: 40. Run: 70. Field: 55. Arm: 55.
MLB Scouting: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55
We’ve covered a couple bat first high school prospects. Well, here is another defense first high school prospect. Hall is going to turn 18 eleven days after the MLB Draft, so he is very young, which is a positive. That said, I get the sense that when you think of the high bust rate for high school picks, it’s because teams draft players like Steele Hall.
Law: “He struggled badly against breaking stuff last summer in limited showcase time before he reclassified to get into the 2025 draft class.”
BA: “He’ll now be 17 years old on draft day and boasts an exciting defensive foundation with plus-plus speed and quick-twitch actions and a high energy playstyle at shortstop. Hall is smaller at 5-foot-11, 175 pounds but has quick hands in the box and an aggressive approach that leads to some swing-and-miss questions.”
ESPN: “He’s a plus-plus runner who will stick at shortstop and is somewhere in the Trea Turner/Anthony Volpe/Jett Williams spectrum of smaller shortstops with real speed and real ability to lift the ball to maximize power at a young age. Being among the youngest players in the draft after reclassifying only helps the case here.”
MLB: “A twitchy athlete, Hall has at least plus-plus speed and earns top-of-the-scale 80 grades from some evaluators. He’s a lock to stay at shortstop with good actions, range to both sides and the ability to make throws from a variety of angles.”
I’ll have to stop there for now. I was originally planning to do a high school bats and then a high school arms post, but as it turns out, there are a lot more bats than arms worth covering. So on Thursday, I’ll cover a couple of high school arms worth chronicling... and some more high school bats. Admittedly, we’re definitely in the territory where the Cardinals are extraordinarily unlikely to draft any high school bats, but it wouldn’t be THAT surprising if just one of the many high school bats I will cover drop to 55. And it’s more likely to happen to Thursday’s group than today’s group.