The short answer to the subheading is yes. Will Anderson is ready to cash in. Ironically, while quarterbacks get the most headlines and the most money, there is more intrigue at the edge rusher position in terms of free agent dollars. The quarterback market is pretty tight and pretty well defined. The edge rusher market not so much.
Like with did with Stroud last week, we will do with Anderson this week. We will start by looking at the top 12 edge rushers according to AAV. In order to do this, we are playing a little guessing game. Trey Hendrickson and Micah Parsons will almost certainly have new deals from someone before the season starts. That will play into Anderson’s market, so we have to include them. At this point, we are just getting on a price, so their financials will be in italics.
From there, we can look at the collective performance of these 12 players over their last two seasons. With both the financials and the performance data we will gather a median and a mean. The final step will be to get a per 15 game estimate of those numbers to see where Anderson needs to be to comfortably be within the group.
Hendrickson and Parsons represent a guess. If we take them out then the numbers get much more stark. Everyone except for Garrett fits into a range between 22 and 35 million. Obviously, when you sign the contract makes a bit difference. This is why we use medians in the first place. Garrett’s contract skews the mean because it is so far beyond what anyone else is making.
It is also the folly of the Bengals and Cowboys in this instance. All it takes is one idiot to set the market and the [Browns](https://www.dawgsbynature.com/) were that Huckleberry. Parsons can make the Cowboys life miserable simply by demanding Garrett money. is he as good as Garrett? We will see when we look at the numbers, but this day and age that really doesn’t matter all that much.
The Bengals just paid both of their wide receivers, so they may not have the appetite to go 30+ million for Hendrickson. Someone will though. Then, you have the looming contract for Aidan Hutchinson. While Stroud will make more than Anderson, there is more of a state of flux for Anderson based not only on his performance, but the fact that a few prominent edge rushers have yet to be paid.
These run the gamat as well. Like we did with Stroud, it is important to pay attention to the mean and median for these numbers. Is this the neighborhood that Anderson lives in? If not, then what does he need to do to get to that neighborhood? Obviously, we need to look at his numbers.
Anderson: 27 games, 82 tackles, 26 TFL, 18.0 sacks, 41 QB hits
At first glance, it would appear he is far short. However, the category he is most short in is games played. If we prorate those numbers over the course of 32 games then we will see that he actually is not that far off from the median and mean. So, let’s take a look at that below.
Anderson: 32 games, 97 tackles, 31 TFL, 21.3 sacks, 48.5 QB Hits
I’d say that puts him in the neighborhood and that doesn’t even consider any kind of improvement he might have between year two and year three. Supposedly, he has already added a pass rush move or two, so it is reasonable to expect him to outproduce these numbers some. The whole key will be staying on the field.
Speaking of staying on the field, one of the things I like to do is project out numbers on a per 15 game basis. The idea is to give an approximation of what a normal season might look like. Expecting players to play in all 17 games seems unrealistic given the physical rigors of the NFL. So, let’s take a look at the positional mean and median on a per 15 game basis.
At first glance, this seems pretty straight forward and reasonable. However, we have to consider one monkey in the wrench. Danielle Hunter will steal some of these numbers for himself and he is one of the 12 people above. Moreover, as the [Texans](https://www.battleredblog.com/) defense continues to improve, the raw numbers might begin to look different. It is possible to have a dramatic impact without actually putting up numbers.
That being said, the bar seems easy enough to clear if he can remain on the field. This is a huge year for him similarly to Derek Stingley last season. If he can stay healthy and productive he will cash in. It seems like 30 million per season is the floor and the most likely result is somewhere between 35 and 40 million per season. 2026 is going to be an expensive year for Cal and Hannah McNair.