The jokes around the Madden curse have been around for as long as cover athletes have been a part of the video game. This year, Saquon Barkley is on the cover, but is the curse a joke or a concern with a track record?
The Madden Curse and Fantasy Football
The Method
To figure out the legitimacy of the Madden curse, I went back through the past ten years of cover athletes. Then, comparing their seasons that got them onto the cover with their season the year after, we can find the difference between the two. Total PPR fantasy points were used to make it as straightforward as possible. Injuries are unpredictable, but if they heavily correlate to the Madden cover, it may truly be a curse.
Raw Results
Name Previous Season Cover Season Difference (Total Fantasy Points)
Christian McCaffrey (2024) 395.3 49.8 -345.5
Josh Allen (2023) 404.2 394.6 -9.6
Tom Brady (2021) 339.4 380.7 41.3
Patrick Mahomes (2021) 371.8 365.7 -6.1
Lamar Jackson (2020) 420.4 338.8 -81.6
Patrick Mahomes (2019) 419.1 289 -130.1
Antonio Brown (2018) 308.3 323.7 15.4
Tom Brady (2017) 256.6 297.8 41.2
Rob Gronkowski (2016) 255.6 97 -158.6
Odell Beckham Jr. (2015) 297 319.3 22.3
Takeaways From the Data
While there have been some catastrophic seasons following a Madden cover appearance, it’s clear there’s not some almighty curse. At least, just for the following season for fantasy football purposes. Sharing the cover seems to protect athletes well, as Brady and Mahomes shared the cover in 2021 and each stayed on their current paces. The same goes for Larry Fitzgerald when he shared the cover with Troy Polamalu, as Fitzgerald had a better season for fantasy purposes the year after the cover.
The Madden curse seems to hit skill position players a little harder than quarterbacks, at least in the long term. While Odell Beckham Jr. and Antonio Brown didn’t experience drop-offs in their cover seasons, it’s safe to say neither of their careers met the expectations they had at the time. Gronkowski and McCaffrey both experienced seasons riddled with injuries, but that was part of their careers before they were ever on the cover. Gronkowski hadn’t played a fully healthy season in five years when he was on the cover, but it was normally just a game or two. Not half the season. McCaffrey was a similar story. He had just put together two relatively healthy seasons in 2022 and 2023, but in 2020 and 2021, he was often on the sidelines rather than in our fantasy lineups.
The stigma around the Madden curse likely stems from a terrible streak in the late 2000s and early 2010s. With Peyton Hillis, Adrian Peterson, and Vince Young, it used to be a nasty impact to cover athletes. These days, it’s mostly a joke, but Christian McCaffrey just reminded fantasy managers around the world that the curse might still be around.
Watch: 2025 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings
The Madden Curse and Saquon Barkley
Only one running back has been on the cover in the past ten years, but maybe that’s what was keeping the curse in check. The past three running backs to be on the cover (McCaffrey, Peterson, Hillis) all experienced brutal seasons the year following. There’s no definitive proof, but with curses, there rarely is.
Main Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images