The wait is finally over for Indiana basketball fans. After 25 long years, the Indiana Pacers are back in the NBA Finals. Their prize? A matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have been nothing short of dominant throughout the 2024-25 season. It’s a David-versus-Goliath showdown. This Pacers squad, however, is led by All-Star Tyrese Haliburton and battle-tested forward Pascal Siakam. They aren't short on confidence or momentum. As Game 1 tips off Thursday in Oklahoma City, there are plenty of bold predictions for how this Finals series might unfold. Some are favoring Indiana’s resilience, while others highlight the enormous challenge they face.
Remarkable Run to the Finals
The NBA Finals begin on Thursday as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for Game 1 of the seven-game series. For the Pacers, it is their first trip to the championship series since 2000. This is just their second time making the Finals in franchise history. The Pacers were able to beat the New York Knicks in six games. That was the same amount of games it took them to beat New York back in 2000 when they won the Eastern Conference for the first time.
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Led by Haliburton, the Pacers entered the playoffs as the fourth seed in the East. Rounds one and two were a breeze for them as they beat the No. 5 seed Milwaukee Bucks and No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers in five games. They had to play one extra game in the Eastern Conference Finals, but there still has not been much of a challenge for Indiana as they prepare for the Finals. Now, the real test begins as they face off against the juggernaut Thunder.
Here we will discuss several Indiana Pacers bold predictions for the 2025 NBA Finals vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Siakam Faces the Williams Wall
Pascal Siakam has been a major driving force behind Indiana’s playoff surge. Sure, many expected Haliburton to hog the spotlight. However, it was Siakam who captured the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. He delivered steady scoring, championship poise, and veteran leadership. His previous Finals experience with Toronto in 2019 gives him a level of comfort under the brightest lights that many of his teammates are experiencing for the first time.
That said, Siakam now faces a much taller order: breaking through Oklahoma City’s versatile defensive ace Jalen Williams. Williams, one of the league’s premier two-way wings, has been instrumental in limiting some of the NBA’s biggest stars during the Thunder’s playoff run. OKC’s defense already proved its mettle by neutralizing MVP-caliber talents like Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards.
For Siakam, matching his ECF performance will require near-perfection. Williams’ length, quick feet, and disruptive hands will force Siakam into tougher situations. If Siakam struggles early, Indiana could find itself playing from behind more often than it can afford. His battle with Williams may ultimately dictate whether the Pacers can steal games in this series or get overwhelmed early.
Defensive Dilemma: Can Indiana Contain Oklahoma City?
Indiana’s offensive system thrives on movement, pace, and unselfish ball-sharing. However, for all their offensive fluidity, their defense remains a glaring concern entering this matchup. The Thunder closed the regular season as the league’s fourth-best scoring team. They averaged 120.5 points per game on a blistering 48.2 percent shooting clip. That included a top-six ranking in both overall field goal and three-point percentages.
In the playoffs, Oklahoma City has only slightly dipped. They are averaging 117.1 points per game while still overwhelming defenses with their array of scoring threats. The Thunder dismantled Minnesota’s elite defense, pouring in 128 and 124 points in their last two games of the Western Conference Finals. That kind of firepower presents a nightmare scenario for Indiana. The Pacers' defense finished middle-of-the-pack during the regular season and has yet to face anything remotely close to OKC’s level of offensive potency.
Slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the primary concern. The newly-crowned NBA MVP has elevated his game even further in the postseason. He is currently averaging 29.6 points per contest on 47.6 percent shooting. He is relentlessly attacking the rim and getting to the free-throw line. Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Ben Sheppard will likely rotate defensive assignments on Gilgeous-Alexander. Still, containing him for four quarters — let alone an entire series — borders on impossible.
Even if Indiana can somehow disrupt SGA, Oklahoma City’s supporting cast will be troublesome. This includes Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and the newly-acquired Alex Caruso. They will provide layers of scoring, passing, and defensive versatility that few teams in league history have possessed all at once. The Pacers will need the best defensive basketball of their season to keep these games within reach.
Haliburton’s Playmaking Tested Like Never Before
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Indiana’s best chance at pulling off an upset hinges on Tyrese Haliburton’s ability to control pace and minimize mistakes. Haliburton has dazzled this postseason with his combination of vision, efficiency, and creativity. He has also averaged under two turnovers per game while maintaining his status as one of the league’s top assist leaders.
However, Oklahoma City’s defense presents a much different animal than anything Haliburton has faced in the East. The Thunder’s perimeter defenders — Dort, Williams, Caruso, and others — apply relentless, physical pressure while rotating seamlessly to cut off passing lanes. Their defensive scheme doesn’t just aim to slow down stars. It aims to suffocate entire offensive systems.
Expect Haliburton to face ball pressure for 94 feet, with the officials allowing a higher level of physicality on the perimeter. That could disrupt Indiana’s rhythm and lead to uncharacteristic mistakes. OKC led all playoff teams in steals per game (10.8) through the first three rounds. They often generate fast-break opportunities off deflections and turnovers. Yes, Haliburton’s poise and court awareness will allow him to adjust. That said, even a slight uptick in his turnover rate could swing close games decisively in the Thunder’s favor.
The Reality: Pacers Likely to Fall Short
Make no mistake — this Indiana team is easy to root for. They play a beautiful brand of basketball built on movement, trust, and teamwork. Rick Carlisle has masterfully balanced a roster blending youth and experience. Haliburton is blossoming into a bona fide superstar, while Siakam provides battle-tested leadership. They’ve already far exceeded preseason expectations and captivated NBA fans with their joyful, fearless run to the Finals.
But the Thunder are a different beast entirely. Statistically, they’ve been one of the most dominant teams in NBA history. They’ve gone 8-1 at home in the playoffs, winning those eight games by an average margin of nearly 28 points. Every time they’ve been tested this postseason, they’ve responded with emphatic victories.
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) stands on court during the second quarter against the New York Knicks of game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
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Even if Indiana steals a game at home, the Thunder’s overwhelming depth, star power, and defensive superiority give them a clear edge. OKC’s combination of Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance and an elite supporting cast will likely prove too much for the Pacers to overcome. Barring a miracle, this series will not extend beyond five games.
Final Thoughts
For Indiana, this NBA Finals trip marks both a celebration of how far they’ve come and a preview of what their future could hold. They’ve re-established themselves as a rising force in the Eastern Conference and laid the foundation for sustained success behind Haliburton, Siakam, and Carlisle’s leadership. But in this particular moment, they are running into a buzzsaw.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been on a mission all season long — one that feels destined to culminate in their first championship since relocating from Seattle. Indiana will fight, they will entertain, and they will learn. But in the end, expect the Thunder’s march of dominance to continue — and for the Pacers to fall just short of the mountaintop.