The Atlanta Dream parted ways with coach Tanisha Wright after the 2024 WNBA season, bringing in an entirely new staff under new head coach Karl Smesko. The Dream also signed three free agents over the offseason in future Hall of Famer Brittney Griner, All-Star Jordin Canada, and guard Shatori Walker-Kimbrough.
Through seven games, the Dream have a 5-2 record, which puts them in a tie for third place with the new-look Phoenix Mercury, just behind the 2024 WNBA championship finalists, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx.
How have the 2025 Dream performed statistically compared to the 2024 Dream?
Note: All statistics are from wnba.com unless noted otherwise.
The 2024 Atlanta Dream team finished eighth in winning percentage at .375 with a 15-25 record. Through their first seven games, Atlanta is in third with a .714 winning percentage at 5-2.
Last year’s squad struggled offensively, finishing last in the league with 77 points per game, 27.8 field goals made per game, a field goal percentage of 40.8%, and just 18.4 assists per game. Atlanta has improved in all of these categories, currently ranking second in the league with 85.9 points per game (behind only the New York Liberty), seventh in the league with 29.3 field goals made per game, a slightly improved field goal percentage of 42.0%, and 20.6 assists per game — good enough to be ranked fourth in the league.
As expected from Smesko’s history at Florida Gulf Coast University, the offensive improvements can be attributed to philosophical changes in team three-point shooting. The 2024 Dream were 10th in three-pointers made at 6.0 per game, ninth in three-pointers attempted at 19.4 per game, and 11th in three-point percentage at 30.81%.
The 2025 Dream are currently third in three-pointers made at 9.9 per game, third in three-pointers attempted at 30.7 per game, and have slightly improved their three-point percentage to 32.1%. While this number is only good for 10th in the league, the fact that it has not declined with the dramatic increase in attempts is a good sign for the sustainability of the Dream’s performance thus far.
Avoiding the 2024 midseason drop-off
While Dream fans should be pleased with Atlanta’s improvements so far this season, the team’s waxing and waning 2024 performance can serve as a cautionary tale. The Dream were 4-2 after six games and 5-4 through nine games in mid-June.
Unfortunately, that would be the last time Atlanta held a winning record, as they went on an eight-game losing streak and lost 11 out of 12 games leading into the 2024 Olympics break. Because of the timing of the midseason hiatus, Atlanta had over a calendar month without a victory between June 30th and August 16th.
Atlanta can hope to avoid a repeat drop-off with Jordin Canada’s upcoming regular season debut as she returns from a preseason injury. Additionally, Brittney Griner returned in Atlanta’s last game against the Seattle Storm after a two-game absence. While Atlanta’s highest-scoring three-person lineup has been the combination of Allisha Gray, Brionna Jones, and Rhyne Howard, the next-best combination has been Gray, Howard, and Griner. It will be crucial for Griner’s availability to return to where it was at the start of the season.
In the absence of Canada and Griner, Howard and Gray have helped carry the Dream to a four-game winning streak. Specifically, Allisha Gray has propelled herself into the national conversation as one of the best players in the league. Kevin Pelton of ESPN recently ranked Gray fourth in the league in his WARP statistic (wins above replacement player) behind three WNBA superstars:
https://bsky.app/profile/kpel
A familiar trio has reemerged atop the leaderboard for my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric on a per-game basis so far this WNBA season, but shout out to Allisha Gray up there with them. WARP is a box-score value metric. More explanation here: sonicscentral.com/warp.html
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T17:45:31.236Z
Upcoming Commissioner’s Cup scheduling implications
Atlanta has a weeklong break between games to rest and prepare before they kick off their Commissioner’s Cup schedule. Between June 1st and June 17th, all WNBA teams will play a single game against each of the other teams in their conference. Team records in these designated Commissioner’s Cup games will determine which team from each conference will compete in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game on July 1st for a prize pool of $500,000.
For Atlanta, this means they will play just five games against their Eastern conference competitors in the first half of June, in contrast to the six games being played by teams in the Western Conference due to the expansion Golden State Valkyries bringing that conference’s total to seven teams. Luckily, the Dream will avoid tough matchups with three teams above .500 in the Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces, and Phoenix Mercury.
Looking ahead to summer challenges
After the Commissioner’s Cup games, Atlanta will have a tougher six-game, twelve-day stretch between June 17th and June 29th with two games against the currently-undefeated New York Liberty and a matchup with the currently-undefeated Minnesota Lynx.
Additionally, due to quirky WNBA scheduling, Atlanta will have completed its season series with the Indiana Fever after their third regular-season game on June 10th. Caitlin Clark may not be available for that rubber match between the two teams due to her quad injury. On the flip side, Atlanta will not have its first game against the Phoenix Mercury (currently with an identical 5-2 record) until July 23rd. Hopefully Atlanta can get and stay healthy for its tougher summer stretch while competing for the opportunity to host a playoff series.
Will the Atlanta Dream be able to hold on to their winning record throughout the 2025 season? Let us know in the comments below!