If one thing has been when it comes to the Los Angeles Rams over the last four seasons, it is that they will only go as far as quarterback Matthew Stafford takes them. When Stafford is at his best, the Rams are one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. However, when he is not, the Rams have had a tendency to start slow and find themselves in a 3-6 or 1-4 hole that they have to recover from.
Stafford’s impact on the Rams offense has been evident from day one. His second pass in a regular season game went for a touchdown. The Rams started the 2021 season with a 7-1 record as Stafford led the NFL in EPA per drop back at 0.407. Tom Brady was the next closest quarterback at 0.248. In fact, the gap between Stafford at one and Brady at two was the same as Brady at two and Jalen Hurts at 20.
In the blink of an eye Stafford went from the best quarterback in the NFL from an efficiency standpoint to the worst. In Weeks 9-12, Stafford ranked dead last in EPA per drop back. However, the Rams quarterback bounced back and from Week 13 until the Super Bowl, he ranked fourth. During just the postseason, he was second behind only Josh Allen.
It was evident in 2021 and it’s been evident since that the Rams go as Matthew Stafford does. When the Rams started 3-6, Stafford was in the middle of the pack in EPA per drop back. However, from weeks 10-17, Stafford was the fourth best quarterback in the NFL. Obviously some context is needed from the early stretch as the Rams dealt with injuries to the offensive line. Still, the point remains that when Stafford is comfortable and playing well, he has the ability to elevate the Rams roster.
That was proven again last season. When the Rams started 1-4, Stafford ranked 24th in EPA per drop back. Over the rest of the season, he ranked 12th and if you remove the final three games of the regular season, he was seventh.
There is certainly context needed for why, but outside of 2021, the Rams haven’t gotten full, consistent season from Stafford. There have been stretches or individual games where he’s shown that he deserves to be in the conversation with the upper-echelon of NFL quarterbacks. There was no better example than last year when he out-dueled Josh Allen, throwing for 320 yards in a win against the Buffalo Bills. Allen would go on to win MVP.
With that said, since 2021, Stafford has not thrown more than 25 touchdown passes in a season. Last season, 14 quarterbacks threw more than 20 touchdown passes. Stafford was not one of them. In 2023, 10 quarterbacks had 25 or more touchdown passes, Stafford was not one of them.
He also hasn’t eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark since 2021. Again, 10 quarterbacks surpassed that in 2023 and in a down year for passing, only six hit the mark last season. Still, Stafford finished each season ranked 11th and 13th in yards.
That’s not necessarily bad and it’s not saying that Stafford hasn’t been good enough. However, the Rams enter a season in which they have Super Bowl aspirations. For the Rams to hit that mark, Stafford will need to be at a top-seven level over the course of 17 games. In 2021, Stafford threw for over 300 yards in seven games and the Rams were 6-1. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in seven games over the last two seasons combined. The Rams are 5-2 in those games.
In 2021, Stafford threw three or more touchdown passes in nine games and the Rams were 7-2. Over the last two seasons combined, he’s done that just five times. The Rams are 4-1 in those games.
Again, this isn’t a criticism of Stafford and what he’s been over the last two years. Without Stafford, the Rams don’t get close to the playoffs in 2023 and they don’t come within 14 yards of beating the Philadelphia Eagles on the road last year.
However, this is to say that for the Rams to get where they want to go this season, Stafford does need to show some more consistency. While Stafford has had good individual performances, he had just one stretch last season with back-to-back top-10 weeks in EPA. Those performances took place in Weeks 13 and 14 against the Saints and Bills. To put that in perspective, Stafford had four back-to-back top-10 weeks in 2023 and six back-to-back top-10 weeks in 2021.
Over the last two seasons, and especially in 2024, Stafford was much more up-and-down than he had been in past years. There are several big spikes from a week-to-week standpoint. While there were still peaks and valleys in 2021, they were generally more gradual.
Matthew Stafford Weekly Performances Matthew Stafford Weekly Performances
Heading into 2025, the Rams have surrounded Stafford with the tools and supporting cast to have success. Davante Adams and Puka Nacua are arguably a top-five wide receiver duo in the NFL. Dan Forneck of FTN Fantasy ranked the offensive line as the fifth-best unit in the NFL. Said Forneck,
“The Rams are rolling back a strong starting five but will need the group to stay healthy to hit their potential. There is enough talent for a top-five unit in this group if they do.”
In addition to all that, whatever you may think about Kyren Williams, the Rams also have a top-10 run game at worst. While it may not be explosive, Williams has proven to be good enough to at least take some pressure off of the quarterback.
Stafford hasn’t been bad over the last two years, but he hasn’t reached the 2021 level that helped lead the Rams to the Super Bowl. He’s shown flashes, but that’s exactly what they’ve been. While the defense is still developing, the strength of the roster remains the offense. With that said, that is a unit that will only go as far as Stafford takes them.
The Rams may not need Stafford to be at a Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson level to be the contenders that many expect them to be in 2025. However, they need him to be better and more consistent than he has been over the last two years. It takes special seasons from multiple players to win the Super Bowl. The Rams don’t just need a good year from Stafford. They need a defining one.