It’s a tale as old as time: the pesky underdog looking to upset the heavily favored Goliath, whom many have already crowned champ.
The Pacers can do just that by pulling off an improbable victory, but standing in their way is a 68-win juggernaut with a seemingly impenetrable defense. OKC looks unbeatable right now, but bigger upsets have taken place these playoffs — many of which were orchestrated by Indiana themselves.
So, can Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers continue to defy the odds, or will Shai lead the Thunder to a title that seems inevitable?
Let’s find out.
Note: all stats reflect the playoff unless otherwise stated.
Key storylines
Turnovers
In many ways, these teams are two sides of the same coin, as the Thunder and Pacers are both elite at creating and limiting turnovers.
Starting with OKC, it’s common knowledge that their ability to create turnovers is one of the traits that makes them so lethal. The Thunder have forced their opponents to give up the ball on a ridiculous 18% of their possessions, ranking first in the playoffs and nearly an entire percentage point more than their historic 17.1% regular season mark.
The Pacers, though, could be the perfect foil to the Thunder’s ball-snatching ways. Despite averaging the second most passes per game (314.3), Indiana has turned the ball over on just 12.5% of their possession (4th lowest).
The ways in which these clubs force TOs also matter. The Thunder can do it in every way imaginable, be it jumping passing lanes, sending doubles, or simply snatching the ball away when an opponent dribbles in their vicinity.
Even with the Pacers’ low TO rate, OKC’s defense could prove to be Indiana’s (and everyone’s) kryptonite, as the Pacers’ desire to push the ball up the court could play right into the Thunder’s hands — especially if they’re as sloppy as shown in the plays below.
On the other side, Indiana’s 14.5% TO creation is also 7th highest, but they’ll be challenged by an OKC team whose 11.1% TO rate is the lowest among all playoff teams. Considering both the numbers and eye test, I’m less confident in Indiana’s ability to steal the ball from the Thunder: the Pacers’ highest usage players are merely average to slightly above average in steal rate, whereas OKC’s three highest usage players are elite at limiting turnovers (Shai, JDub, and Chet all have TO rates under 10%, ranking in the 90th percentile).
Moreover, the Pacers’ highest TO players include Nembhard (13.7%), Turner (13.4%), and Mathurin (12.5%), who are all averaging over 28 minutes a game for Indiana. If those three prove to be liabilities against the Thunders’ historic defense, the Pacers could be forced out of playing the frenetic style that’s made them so dangerous.
Meanwhile, Hartenstein is the only important player in OKC’s lineup who has a high TO rate (15.4%), and his role might be reduced anyway due to other matchup concerns we’ll touch on later.
In short, the Thunder have a much better chance of slowing Indiana down and limiting their potent speed than vice versa. The Pacers will still force their fair share of TOs, but asking them to keep up with OKC is a whole other level — especially since the Thunder’s offense doesn’t involve much ball movement and Shai has one of the lowest turnover rates in the league.
Transition
The similarities of both teams are also noticeable in transition.
OKC runs on 15.6% (2nd) of their possessions and has a ridiculous 142.0 offensive rating (1st) on such plays, while Indiana sports a 13.8% frequency (5th) with a 138.5 ORTG (3rd). Defensively, these teams are 2nd (11.0%, Thunder), and 4th (11.8%, Pacers), respectively, in limiting transition frequency, while also maintaining an elite defensive rating of 114.5 (4th, Thunder) and... 97.0 (1st, Pacers).
That latter number is unsustainable for Indiana, but OKC’s transition defense is legit. The Thunder played an even better transition team in the Grizzlies in round one and completely prevented them from running. Memphis’ 17.2% transition frequency in the regular season ranked second league-wide, but that dropped to just 11.9% in their four-game sweep, which would’ve been last in the league by a wide margin.
Numbers aside, these teams create transition chances in different ways. Thunder rely most on turnovers, while the Pacers prioritize getting past half-court regardless of the situation. Indiana’s first instinct is to throw the ball ahead and create a mismatch before the opposing defense can get set, no matter if that’s after a make, a rebound, or a steal.
On the other end, both teams prioritize running back after losing possession to set up their defense. Neither side cares much for grabbing offensive rebounds as they’re both ranked in the bottom half in OREB%, which is a smart strategy since both teams score at will when the opposition is left behind crashing the boards.
Still, it’s inevitable that these teams will be caught in cross-matches due to the pace they play at. How often that happens could determine the outcome of the series, which brings us to...
Matchups
Indiana’s offense vs OKC’s defense
Indiana’s relentlessness on offense will force OKC to make heavy adjustments to their rotation. For starters, I expect Hartenstein to have a reduced role in the finals. The Pacers hunted him relentlessly last year when he played in New York, and iHart doesn’t have the footspeed to keep up with Indiana’s guards. Given that the Pacers are also a poor rebounding team with only one reliable big in Myles Turner, expect OKC to play Chet heavy minutes alone. This will also mitigate the Thunder’s turnovers since iHart has the highest TO rate among players in their rotation.
In his stead, OKC could start Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso, depending on the matchups. What’s interesting on this side of the ball is that there is no matchup certainty except for Dort to be assigned to Haliburton. In their most recent regular season game, Shai guarded Nembhard, Wallace guarded Nesmith, Hartenstein guarded Siakam (since Chet was injured), and JDub guarded Turner. The Thunder will have no problem switching given their versatility, although they’d like to keep Chet and Shai out of the primary action.
In particular, the defensive assignments of that duo could be a bellwether for the Thunder. In Chet’s case, if OKC decides to play him straight up against Turner, they risk having him switch on to Haliburton, and the drop defense the Thunder’s bigs usually play could result in him giving up open threes.
OKC could try putting Chet on a historically below-average shooter in Nembhard, thus freeing him up to roam in the paint. This would also allow one of Caruso/Wallace to be on Turner so that the Thunder could switch a Hali-Turner pick and roll without giving up a mismatch. However, Nembhard seems to be a Playoff Jimmy disciple due to his ability to suddenly become a sharpshooter in the postseason, as he’s making 50% of his threes during this run.
Shooting aside, the Pacers are more than comfortable having Nembhard initiate offense as well, so Chet will still be forced to guard on the perimeter. To mitigate this issue, OKC could elect to put him on Siakam instead, who operates in the paint more than any non-big Pacer and could keep Chet closer to the basket. Still, a simple Siakam-Haliburton pick and roll would force him back out on the perimeter, and Indiana’s ability to field a full lineup of players who can all dribble, pass, and shoot is what makes them so hard to defend.
For Shai, having him guard either Nembhard or Nesmith are the only viable options, and the health of the latter could be the deciding factor in this decision. If he’s 100%, Nesmith’s speed and off-ball cutting might be too much for Shai, but a banged-up version of him could give the MVP a place to somewhat rest on defense. If OKC opts to have him on Nembhard, expect the Pacers to run more offense through the two-guard to tire out Shai and attack the so-called “weak link” in the Thunder’s defense.
Another interesting wrinkle in this series is the stylistic differences between the two teams, some of which heavily favor one side. For example, the Thunder prioritizes rim protection by limiting drives from opposing teams — OKC collapses into the paint when players attack the basket, and as a result, only 27.4% of shots (5th fewest) from opponents have come within four feet of the Thunder’s rim. However, this means that they allow lots of threes, especially from the corner: 40.3% (3rd most) of opponent shots have come from deep, and 13.5% (2nd most) from the corners.
If Mark Daigneault chooses not to change their defensive scheme, Indiana could have a scab to pick at. The Pacers are shooting 41.7% from three (1st) and 47.5% from the corners (2nd), but they’re only attempting 35.3% of their shots from deep (14th).
Considering everything, the Pacers’ best chance of consistently scoring on OKC is by targeting Shai and Chet and kicking the ball out to their shooters. It’s not a foolproof strategy, but there aren’t many better options against a historically great defense.
OKC’s offense vs Indiana’s defense
For the Thunder, everything starts and ends with Shai. Nembhard will draw that assignment, while Nesmith takes JDub and Turner plays straight up against Chet. This allows Siakam and Haliburton to hide on Dort and Caruso/Wallace while also allowing the former to be a roamer on the back line — a role that he excels at.
For Indiana, their entire scheme should be geared toward slowing down Shai. He’ll hunt Turner relentlessly, and the Pacers can’t give up easy switches unless they want heaps of BBQ chicken to be served.
The Thunder’s offense is nowhere near as innovative as Indiana’s, but they’re still capable of executing multiple actions to get the matchup they’d like. For example, the clip below shows OKC running a double drag to get Shai attacking Gobert downhill, resulting in an easy pull-up middy.
Even if his defender gets around the screen, Shai can still get to his spot in the half-second it takes his defender to recover. Then, the MVP shows everyone why he has a PhD in tough shot-making.
Another key component of OKC’s offense is guard-guard actions. Every one of the Thunder’s rotation players are willing and capable screeners, and they will use that to bring Haliburton’s man into the play to create a mismatch for Shai.
To counter this, Indiana needs to shoot the gap and close off Shai’s driving lanes. Denver did a decent job of this in their round two series, forcing the MVP to put up tough shots like the one below.
OKC wanted to attack Jamal Murray, put him in action to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Williams screens, Denver gives the switch but look at the help from Christian Braun. Parked at the nail. Try and take away driving lanes and contest. pic.twitter.com/NBiBE78h0U
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) May 10, 2025
With that in mind, Indiana’s best chance at slowing down the Thunder is, well, slowing down Shai. OKC’s one Achilles heel is their secondary offense, so the Pacers need to get the ball out of Shai’s hands and force the Thunder’s supporting cast to beat them instead.
The numbers back that up, too. Among OKC’s rotation players, only iHart and Caruso have scored with above-average efficiency relative to their position, outside of Shai. The Thunder are also shooting just 33.5% from deep during the postseason, which is one of the worst marks among all teams who made it to the playoffs.
Overall, Indiana’s path to success is simple in theory but hard to execute. They need to prevent Shai from easily switching on to Turner and Haliburton and trap him early in the possession before he gets to his spot. The Pacers’ other defenders will then need to be sharp with their rotations to prevent an easy basket while being outnumbered, although forcing the Thunders’ secondary creators to score should be considered a win for Indiana.
If the Pacers manage to accomplish that and OKC continues to struggle with their shot, then they’ll have a shot at victory.
X-Factor: Myles Turner
Turner struggled against New York, as KAT basically got anything he wanted offensively. Chet isn’t as gifted of a shooter as Big Purr, so Turner won’t need to defend him as tightly on the perimeter. Still, Chet is more than capable of creating his own shot while also being a better passer than KAT, so Turner will need to be aware of other actions the Thunder might be running.
Moreover, the Pacers’ weakest link in their rotation is their centre depth, or lack thereof. Indiana has no reliable backup bigs behind Turner, so he needs to be counted on to play big minutes without getting in foul trouble. As mentioned before, Shai will hunt him relentlessly, and Turner needs to prevent giving up an easy switch by hedging and recovering or trapping the MVP.
Offensively, Turner will also need to continue hitting threes consistently. OKC is willing to give up open looks from the corner, especially for opposing bigs when Chet/iHart are more focused on defending the paint. I’m not sure how feasible it is to expect Turner to continue making 40% of his total threes and 50% from the corner, but those numbers can’t drop off drastically if the Pacers hope to pull off a historic upset.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
The Pacers will make this a competitive series with their innovative offense and ingenius coaching, but the talent mismatch will be too much to overcome. OKC is arguably the only team that can keep up with Indiana’s (the Thunder’s pace is actually higher than the Pacers’ these playoffs) speed, which will neutralize the Pacers’ main trump card.
Simply put, too many things need to go right for the Pacers to be crowned champs. Indiana needs to win the turnover battle, limit Shai’s effectiveness, and hope OKC continues to struggle shooting, while the Thunder should win simply by playing at the same level they have been the entire playoffs. It’s not impossible given the comebacks the Pacers have already pulled off, but there’s an inevitability to this Thunder team that makes it impossible to bet against.
OKC will finally win the title that once seemed assured, and their new Big Three will avenge the dynasty that never was.