Alpern Sengun is currently the best player on the Houston Rockets. He’s one of the best 20 players in the NBA, too.
This despite the fact that in some respects his statistics declined a bit last season, mostly in terms of offensive efficiency. In other respects, looking at various counting,rate, and value stats, there’s reason to believe that Alperen Sengun is a top 20 player in the NBA, at 22 years old, in his fourth NBA season.
Alpie will turn 23 in July. It’s remarkable how good he is now, even 4 or 5 years away from typical peak seasons for an NBA player. It’s also remarkable that he showed this same growth path on two exceedingly dismal Rockets teams that did not feature him, in his first two seasons. In his third he again faced skepticism from his head coach, and he again proved that coach wrong.
Now it’s a matter of getting NBA watchers and commenters to realize that Alpie is genuinely top 20 in the NBA, maybe top 15. There are some bigger names, some better known players that others might rank in front of him, but some of those spots are perhaps claimed on reputation, rather than production.
This may all seem hard be believe, given that right now in terms of national media recognition, Sengun mostly gets kindly pats on the head, rather than the genuine respect he deserves. That should change, soon. Partly because his work demands it, and partly because I suspect the Rockets will enjoy more playoff and regular season success in the 2025-26 season and beyond. The likely continuing growth and maturity of Rockets players who are still young enough to improve, including Sengun, makes this seem a good prediction to me.
Certainly there are legitimate questions about the future of some Rockets players, and also real concern over the moribund and ineffective status of Ime Udoka’s offense, as so glaringly demonstrated in the playoffs against Golden State, this post-season.
All the same, in my mind there should be little question or doubt regarding Alperen Sengun’s future play, and future value to the Rockets. Indeed, I believe the question will be whether or not he simply grows into the better players in the NBA at his position, but not clearly near the top of that spot, or ascends to stardom.
Sengun has given us ample reason to believe stardom is a real, possibly likely outcome, because he’s already living in the outskirts of that rarefied country.
Last season Alpie posted these stats, at age 22:
19.1pts/10.3rbs/4.9ast/1.1stl/0.8blk
Here’s another age 22 stat line:
18.5pts/10.7rbs/6.1ast/1.2stl/0.8blk
Yes, the second line is Nikola Jokic’s age 22 season. He, too, saw a slight decline in his shooting percentages in his age 22 season as well, like Sengun. His free throw shooting, though, was markedly better at 85% on 4.2 attempts, versus Alpie’s 69% on 5.6 attempts per game. Making free throw’s at The Joker’s age 22 rate would take Alpie over 20 points per game, with no additional shot or free throw attempts.
Still, when people say “Baby Jokic” referring to Sengun, those people probably don’t realize it’s more like “Twin Jokic” in terms of the main stats for Alperen Sengun thus far, when you compare same age seasons.
There are still more reasons to be confident in Sengun. Here are metrics in which Sengun is Top 20 in the NBA.
Counting/Rate Stats:
Total Rebounds - 8th
Defensive Rebounds - 12th
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 8th
2pt FG per game: 9th
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 11th
And some calculated stats:
PER - 19th
Win Shares - 19th
Defensive Win Shares - 5th
Box Plus/Minus - 14th
VORP - 12th
Defensive Rating: 11th
Beyond this, Alperen Sengun is also one of two offensive players on the Rockets any opponent actually game plans, and sets its defense, for. He’s one of the few Rockets who have shown the ability to carry the team to wins on the back of his performances. I believe he could do more, much more, with a more imaginative and free offense. An offense that doesn’t fear its own mistakes and opponents scoring off them so much that it constipates itself. Will the Rockets actually achieve such an offense? That remains to be seen. Alpie’s usage is somewhat high at 27%, but could go higher, and would profit even more from a return to his earlier efficiency levels.
Alpie faced real targeting from defenses last season, and especially in the playoffs. We’ll see if he does as he has in the past, and begins next season ready to face, and exceed, that challenge.
In any case, Rockets fans should feel good that their current best player is not only signed for the future, but still growing, still on a great path (almost precisely like Jokic’s so far), and capable of more than we’ve seen so far.
Alpern Sengun is currently the best player on the Rockets. Maybe Amen Thompson, or another player takes that crown, but given Alpie’s path, that might take some real doing, and could only be good for us as Rockets fans.
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