One small anecdote sums up perfectly the scale of Manchester United‘s transfer missteps over recent years.
When the Red Devils were in the market for a goalkeeper in 2023, having decided to dispense with the services of David de Gea, they were invited and encouraged to bid for his compatriot David Raya.
The data suggested it was the right move and Brentford were open to creative ways of structuring a deal for a player in the final year of his contract. Raya was open to it and an offer was awaited.
Instead, they backed the judgement of Erik ten Hag and spent more to prise Andre Onana from Inter. Two years on, they are open to offers for Onana this summer while Raya has just won the Premier League’s Golden Glove for a second straight season (this time shared with Matz Sels).
It’s not unusual for Premier League clubs to make mistakes in recruitment. What marks Manchester United out – what one insider tells The i Paper makes them such a “disaster class” before this summer – is the sheer number of them emanating from Old Trafford.
Buy or not, Bryan Mbeumo transfer could set the tone
WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MAY 25: Bryan Mbeumo of Brentford celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers FC and Brentford FC at Molineux on May 25, 2025 in Wolverhampton, England. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Man Utd must avoid overpaying for Bryan Mbeumo (Photo: Getty)
Will this year be any different? A swift, incisive start to the window saw United clinch a move for Matheus Cunha for a deal that will rise to £62.5m. Given the boxes that Ruben Amorim needs them to check, it looks like a smart bit of business and now they have Bryan Mbeumo in their sights.
It looks like dynamic stuff but a deal for Mbeumo is far from done and news leaking out about his preference for United might actually have drawn groans from the Old Trafford boardroom.
The best way for these deals to get done is usually for the transfer to be a decent way down the line before it gets into the public domain. With reports now saying United are stepping up their interest in the Cameroon forward, it might be more difficult to hard bargain for a player Brentford value at some £5m-10m more than United would ideally like to pay.
Unlike with Cunha, there is also no release clause here. It will be a big test of a club who have become synonymous in football circles for overpaying, a reputation they have carried with them into the Ineos era.
Then United have to become better “sellers”. While there will be relief that Bruno Fernandes has not opted to take the big bucks on offer from Al-Hilal, it does leave them with some big-player trading decisions to make because real assets are thin on the ground and players they would let leave – think Rasmus Hojlund – have depreciated in value.
So how do you solve a problem as big as United this summer? The i Paper spoke to executives and those in Premier League recruitment circles and there’s a common theme: they’ll need “big balls” and an even bigger capacity to absorb pain.
“The league table looks dreadful but the underlying numbers for them aren’t actually that bad. The silver lining is they’ve been a bit unlucky in the league,” one source tells The i Paper.
“They’re a top-10 Premier League club now according to the data so next season will be better. That’s a guarantee. The big jump for them, though, is getting back to challenging for titles and there’s no magic wand. It’s just time.”
Four priorities for new Man Utd blueprint
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 25: Harry Maguire of Manchester United speaks with teammate Casemiro during the Premier League match between Manchester United FC and Aston Villa FC at Old Trafford on May 25, 2025 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Matt McNulty/Getty Images)
Shifting on Harry Maguire and Casemiro could reset wage expectations (Photo: Getty)
One recruitment exec says his priority would be to plot the contract expirations of the old guard like Casemiro, Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire and put all of them up for sale immediately so that wage expectations – and those around contract lengths – can be reset.
Then it’s three “good, mid-level” signings every window and then “one in, one out” while the club pivot to bringing in the best academy level talent that can’t get a game elsewhere.
The recruitment of Ayden Heaven from Arsenal gets a big tick and some believe this is the route they should go down.
Ted Knutson, the founder of football analytics firm Statsbomb, recently wrote a fascinating piece for his TransferFlow newsletter on the United rebuild that suggested the club make “opportunity” their USP for the sort of players who might be considering moving to Germany’s Bundesliga in search of games.
They benefit from having some greater headroom around profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) than some of their rivals.
“PSR-wise, they can spend £100m and not have to worry about it,” professor Rob Wilson, a football finance specialist, tells The i Paper.
“Anything over £100m they’re starting to go into their PSR headroom so you’d have to see some departures.”
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One thing everyone agrees on is that this window is critical for the club.
“If this had been three years ago they would be in danger of going down because the budget gaps weren’t as big as they are now. They’re certainly on a better path than they were at that time,” Knutson – who has advised some big Premier League clubs on recruitment – tells The i Paper.
“Put it this way they’re much, much closer to going down than they are to the Champions League right now.”
First four: tread carefully with Mbeumo, become better sellers, show big balls, absorb pain
Next four: Sell the old guard, buy three ‘good mid-level’ signings each window, then operate a one in, one out policy, also find academy talent that aren’t playing elsewhere
Absorb pain, be careful with Mbeumo, sell the old guard: How to fix Man Utd