The NBA will soon showcase itself on the biggest stage, but without some of the factors that has spurred the league’s popularity.
This year’s NBA Finals will not feature the league’s defending champion (Boston Celtics), any big-market teams (Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors) or any of the league’s most marketable players (Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant).
Instead, the Western Conference’s best team (Oklahoma City Thunder) will host a surprise Eastern Conference finalist (Indiana Pacers), beginning with Game 1 on Thursday (8:30 p.m. on ABC). The matchup boasts this year’s regular-season MVP winner (OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), another All-Star point guard (Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton) and two deep and well-coached teams.
Will that matchup attract enough interest among both casual and devout NBA fans? How compelling and competitive will this series be? Below are five predictions to answer those questions and more.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander operates with the ball as Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin defends at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Dec. 26, 2024.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander operates with the ball as Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin defends at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Dec. 26, 2024.
Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
NBA Finals ratings will take a dip, but still spark interest
Not as many viewers will watch the NBA Finals as they would if the matchup featured a big market team or a generational superstar.
Though this year’s NBA Finals won’t compare as well as the 1990s Bulls’ Finals (1991-93, 1996-98), the Warriors-Cavaliers matchups (2015-18) or the Warriors-Celtics series (2022), don’t expect the Thunder-Pacers series to suffer the same declined viewership as the Lakers-Heat bubble series (2020) and the Suns-Bucks post-COVID Finals (2021).
Fans can debate whether it’s a good or bad thing that the NBA hasn’t had a repeat champion since the 2018 Warriors. But both the Thunder and Pacers each have All-Star caliber players, depth and coaching to suggest their strong basketball will appeal to fans of all stripes.
The NBA mostly has downplayed ratings decreases because of ongoing cord cutting, growth on digital platforms and a lucrative new television deal. Regardless, the league concedes that it needs more attention on the game itself. The Thunder-Pacers series would at least satisfy that need.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reacts after scoring against the Orlando Magic at Paycom Center on Nov. 4, 2024.
Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reacts after scoring against the Orlando Magic at Paycom Center on Nov. 4, 2024.
Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win Finals MVP
Gilgeous-Alexander will dissect the Pacers’ defense the same way he has slice through opposing defenses throughout the regular season and playoffs. He will finish at the rim with efficiency. He will punish defenders for leaving him open with either a timely 3-point shot or assist. And, yes, he will hunt for fouls by seeking contact at the rim, angling his body off drives and even embellishing a bit for the officials.
Don’t call Gilgeous-Alexander a free-throw merchant, though. He doesn’t flail his arms, try to land in his defender’s landing space or fall obnoxiously after taking a step-back shot. Gilgeous-Alexander has so many other tools with his strong finishing, improved 3-point shooting and elevated playmaking.
The Pacers might become the latest team that becomes frustrated with Gilgeous-Alexander. But most of the reasons will center on not having single or multiple defenders who can stop him, not because of his acting skills.
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton controls the ball as New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson defends during overtime of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals at Madison Square Garden on May 21, 2025.
Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton controls the ball as New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson defends during overtime of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals at Madison Square Garden on May 21.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Tyrese Haliburton will have up-and-down performances
Each game, Haliburton will display a different version of himself. As the NBA’s best passing point guard, Haliburton always will post high assist numbers. With his scoring however, Haliburton will either make clutch baskets or struggle with his shooting.
For better and for worse, Haliburton has produced both hits and misses throughout the playoffs. Mostly, Haliburton has elevated the Pacers with dramatic comeback wins against Cleveland and New York. But there also have been a handful of games where he relies too much on his passing and doesn’t show enough aggressiveness to remain a scoring threat. Considering the Thunder’s deep roster and elite defense, expect that Haliburton will experience the same rites of passages.
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams drives to the basket against Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam at Paycom Center on March 29, 2025.
Thunder forward Jalen Williams drives to the basket against Pacers forward Pascal Siakam at Paycom Center on March 29.
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Jalen Williams, Pascal Siakam could decide the series
Although they both could provide compelling individual performances, Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton won’t produce a riveting NBA Finals matchup by themselves. That’s because neither player is likely to guard the other. Gilgeous-Alexander has become a much more elite scorer than Haliburton. But Haliburton could ensure that the Pacers maximize their depth with his superior passing. Therefore, both teams likely will need another dependable player to offset each star player’s performance.
That’s where Williams and Siakam enter the picture. Williams made his first All-Star appearance this season partly for becoming a more secondary scorer and 3-point shooter. Siakam won Eastern Conference finals MVP honors by mastering the same job description that helped the Toronto Raptors win the 2019 NBA title: strong off-ball movement, efficient scoring and defensive versatility.
My bet is on Siakam to prevail over Williams for numerous reasons. He already boasts championship experience. He has produced more consistently. He will assume a bigger scoring role because of Haliburton’s pass-first role. I don’t think that will be enough, however, for the Pacers to win the NBA title. That’s because Gilgeous-Alexander will play more consistently than Haliburton, which puts less pressure on Williams to produce as much as Siakam. Williams still will prove to be valuable, though. After struggling last season with scoring consistently, Williams has become more reliable as a secondary scorer, outside shooting and playmaker both on and off the ball.
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren gestures after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers at Paycom Center on March 19, 2025.
Thunder forward Chet Holmgren gestures after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers at Paycom Center on March 19, 2025.
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Thunder will win the NBA Finals in six games
The Pacers will challenge the Thunder with Haliburton’s brilliance, Siakam’s efficiency and their fast pace. That will be enough to make this a competitive series. That won’t be enough, however, to make the Thunder feel vulnerable.
Gilgeous-Alexander will produce an MVP-type performance every game. The Thunder will utilize their numerous wing defenders (Williams, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace) to minimize Haliburton, Siakam and Indiana’s deep rotation. OKC also can rely on its big-man lineups with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in case the Thunder need to make an in-series adjustment.
The Thunder might let down in one or two games. Indiana has a respectable enough team to stay competitive. But with OKC boasting the NBA’s best defensive team and best overall player, the Thunder will undoubtedly win their first NBA title in franchise history.
Mark Medina is an NBA contributor for Athlon Sports. Follow him onX,Blue Sky,Instagram,Facebook andThreads.