The vote is in. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel ran a poll asking Green Bay Packers fans to estimate how many games the team will win in 2025, and, according to MJS‘s update, the consensus is 11-plus.
National media tends to be a bit lower on Packers projections. In the betting market, their win total sits at 9.5, a game lower than last year (Green Bay went 11-6, hitting the over on 10.5). Sports Illustrated, for one, is taking the under this season, putting them in a 23% minority among (admittedly biased) poll voters.
What must go right for the Packers in 2025, and what could go wrong?
Green Bay Packers Endorse Conservative Offseason, To Rely on Internal Growth
MJS provides a breakdown of the votes among 464 respondents.
12-plus wins: 9.5%
12 wins: 19.2%
11 wins: 25.2%
10 wins: 23.9%
9 wins: 9.5%
8 wins: 7.5%
sub-8 wins: 5.2%
The Packers did not lose a lot of talent in free agency, but they also did not bring in much. Their external signings included cornerback Nate Hobbs, offensive lineman Aaron Banks and receiver Mecole Hardman. They also brought back linebacker Isaiah McDuffie and kicker Brandon McManus.
In the draft, they used their first round pick on Texas receiver Matthew Golden, later selecting Savion Williams from TCU, 87th overall. Also of note, the Packers took tackle Anthony Belton with the 54th pick and drafted edge rusher Barryn Sorrell, Golden’s Texas teammate, at the end of the fourth round.
The team will rely on internal improvements from the likes of Edgerrin Cooper (LB), Lukas Van Ness (DE) and Dontayvion Wicks (WR), among others, as well as another step forward from quarterback Jordan Love. Despite his rookie status, the Packers are also depending on contributions from Golden, which would compensate for Christian Watson’s possible absence to begin the season as he recovers from ACL surgery.
Green Bay Packers, Packers news, Packers predictions 2025
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks (13) catches a first quarter touchdown pass against the New Orleans Saints on Monday, December 23, 2024 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers defeated the Saints 34-0.
Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
How It All Comes Together
On the surface at least, aside from adding Golden, Green Bay has essentially decided to run it back. With a tough schedule, that might not be enough to replicate last year’s results.
At the same time, the Lions lost both coordinators and the Vikings are starting rookie QB JJ McCarthy – both seemed poised for a step back. Led by head coach Ben Johnson, former Lions OC, the Bears should improve in year two of the Caleb Williams era, but they probably aren’t ready to contend for more than a fringe playoff spot.
To reach or exceed 2024’s 11-6 mark, the Packers might not need much more than the benefit of anticipated development (Cooper, Golden, etc.) and relatively good health. The latter, of course, is never a given in the NFL, but that formula seems a reasonable bet for a third straight wild card appearance.
Green Bay Packers, Packers news, Packers predictions 2025
Jan 12, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) rushes the ball past Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (29) during the first half in an NFC wild card game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
For the team to compete for a Super Bowl, however, they would need results far along the positive end of the spectrum. Say Cooper makes a case for Defensive Player of the Year. Golden is a legitimate wide receiver two, or even the number one option. Love puts bad habits to rest, improves his decision-making and his receivers stop dropping the damn ball. The defensive line, a glaring potential weakness, holds up, with better production from Rashan Gary, Van Ness and Kenny Clark.
And, of course, key guys stay healthy.
How Things Fall Apart
All of the above could happen, but almost everything has to go right – as is typically the case for teams in the Super Bowl, unless your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes or your roster so stacked – hello, Eagles – that injuries or setbacks are easier to hurdle.
Natural variance (for instance, negative regression in turnover luck after Green Bay enjoyed a +12 margin last season) could dictate a variety of outcomes around the 10-win range. The way the Packers flop, stumbling to eight wins or fewer, involves the flipside of everything that must go right: injuries, lack of development, a weak pass rush.
Green Bay Packers, Packers news, Packers predictions 2025
Jan 12, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) reacts after being injured against the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC wild card game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Somewhat paradoxically, Green Bay has a solid floor but a narrow margin for error. If everything goes according to plan, without a big swing one way or the other, 10 or 11 wins sounds about right. But the Packers don’t have the star power to withstand underachievement from young players or an ill-timed handful of injuries. Hopefully their offseason inactivity doesn’t come back to bite them.
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