Yesterday we posted an article evaluating Portland Trail Blazers General Manager Joe Cronin. The basic gist was that Cronin’s tenure has been impeded by so many organizational and environmental obstacles that judging his fitness is hard. We know the team has not made a ton of progress in the last four years. We don’t know how much of that is dependent on executive action and how much is simply the consequence of dealing with a rebuild in the wake of losing a generational franchise star. Appreciating how hard the journey has been helps us moderate expectations about how quickly the pace should proceed.
We also suggested that the next 14-18 months should be smoother, give or take a change in franchise ownership. The decisions Cronin makes during this span will “stick” to him far more than his earlier efforts, many of which were constrained by circumstance.
In response to that claim, we’ve gotten the following Mailbag question:
Dave,
I read the recent Cronin story. Interesting take. Assuming it’s true I want to ask what specific events will you now begin to judge him by? I understand that people are sometimes in a rush to pass judgement but I also know we can’t keep pushing this kind of judgement down the road. If someone asks you the same question about how JC is doing two years from now what decisions are you going to hold him accountable for?
Miles
That’s a really good question, actually. Technically the correct answer is, “Every decision he makes.” Some will weigh more than others, though.
I think I’d start with a couple of past decisions.
The progress of Scoot Henderson is a huge one. This is one of the decisions in which I’m assuming Cronin and his staff had a relatively free hand. It’s also the highest organic draft position the Blazers can reasonably hope to attain during this stretch. (Milwaukee Bucks picks may supplement their resources though, depending on whether or not the Bucks trade Giannis Antetokounmpo.) Nobody drafts perfectly, but spending this resource on less-than-optimal results would be a serious red flag.
Extending Head Coach Chauncey Billups in the face of a 117-211 record was a remarkable decision. I understand the mitigating circumstances; many of the same obstacles facing Cronin also hampered Billups over the past four years. But as I said on a recent episode of the Trail Daddy podcast, extending a coach with that record through a seventh season is unprecedented in the history of the NBA. That doesn’t mean it’s the wrong move. It does mean the burden of proof is very much on Cronin and the front office now. If you do something that has never been done before and makes little instinctive sense, it had better be the exact right move. Otherwise you end up looking pretty foolish.
To that I would add the following:
How is the 11th pick used this year? Several outcomes might be satisfactory. The only avenue I’d object to (that people have seriously suggested) is using it as sweetener to trade away Jerami Grant’s contract. That’s not necessary, as the Blazers can generate cap space even with Grant in the fold. It would also be a self-inflicted wound. Other than that, I’m good if they execute it as-is or use it in trade. We just need to see results from it. Cronin gets a pass—indeed, credit—for whatever happened in the 2024 NBA Draft with a notoriously weak pool of candidates. 2025 definitely needs to count somehow, though. The draft is still Portland’s clearest potential avenue of improvement. They can’t waste opportunities.
Do the Blazers extend veterans this summer, particularly Deandre Ayton and Anfernee Simons? They have the potential to generate cap space in the Summer of 2026 if they don’t re-sign players early. I’m not saying they should use that space. Maybe they don’t even want it. But locking up middling-to-good players isn’t the move of an elite franchise. More like a scared one. At least they should wait to see what develops during the season and next summer. They’ll still have Bird Rights on those players if they want them back then. Only a true sweetheart deal in the meantime would change my mind.
Are there more Deni Avdija trades out there? I think there’s an argument to be made that, between Avdija and Toumani Camara, the Blazers have been good at identifying diamond-in-the-rough talents ready to assume a larger role. That’s a great quality for a rebuilding franchise. If they do it again, I’m going to assume it’s more than luck. At that point, there’s a tangible reason to value Cronin and/or his staff.
If the Blazers generate cap space in 2026, what do they do with it? If not, do they at least create enough room below the luxury tax to use cap exceptions? Cronin has not made a notable free agent signing since the Blazers started their rebuild. The ones prior were colored by the situation and don’t apply. Can he identify suitable veterans to fill roles amid the young players? I don’t care much whether they’re significant pieces or mid-level, supplemental players. I just want to know how Joe shops when the market is open.
How does the front office manage the contracts of Avdija and Camara? Both are underpaid. That will need to be addressed. If the Blazers want to keep the goodwill of their new, young starters, they’ll compensate them sooner rather than later. Obviously it’s better for the franchise to keep the costs down, though, retaining the maneuverability those low dollars allow. What’s the point of picking up value players if you immediately give up the value? This is the kind of hard decision that puts a front office to the test. It’s more of an academic question than a “right answer” one, but I’m curious to see how this is negotiated.
How do those Bucks picks turn out anyway? This extends beyond the two-year horizon, but delayed or not, they are the main fruits of the Damian Lillard trade. If the 2028 and 2030 swaps aren’t swappable and the 2029 pick ends up mediocre, cue the sad trombone. If Milwaukee stinks and the Blazers hop into repeated lotteries just when they’re starting to get good, it’s party time. This one factor alone could make the difference between Cronin looking milquetoast and looking like a genius.
This final one is loose, but it seems like the franchise is itching for some kind of resolution/consolidation move to clarify focus and forward path for the roster. Right now it’s a bit of a hodgepodge: a bunch of promise cobbled together by bailing wire and duct tape. Internal development may provide a solution. Failing that, we were all hoping that maybe lottery luck would drop a star in Portland’s lap. Right now neither of those possibilities seem strong. So what’s next? The team needs a locomotive to hitch all these freight cars to. Ideally they would find that resolution before guys like Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson hit their prime (and/or second contract) years. It seems far-fetched. Maybe it’s impossible. But without this kind of resolution and direction, all of Cronin’s moves are just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.
That’s enough of a list for two years, I think. It seems like a lot, but realistically unless some of these things go well the issue will probably take care of itself. I don’t think the incumbent General Manager would be able to explain to new owners why the franchise has been sailing in circles for the last 730 days after languishing for the four years prior. At that point they’re going to put someone else in charge of the ship and we can put this matter to bed.
Did I miss any significant milestones or items? If so, share them in the comments section!
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible.