Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s future looked bleak when the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for him at the 2022-23 deadline.
He was on his third team in just over a year, on an expiring rookie-scale contract, and struggling to find his role in the NBA. If he did not find his niche, he would be on his way out of the NBA.
However, he found a way to impact the game in Minnesota.
Alexander-Walker was a sweetener in the trade that sent Mike Conley to Minnesota, D’Angelo Russell to Los Angeles, and Russell Westbrook to Utah.
The Timberwolves longed for a change from the tumultuous Russell, and Conley instantly brought more balance and a veteran presence. Therefore, Alexander-Walker fell under the radar in the deal.
Expectations were low when Alexander-Walker arrived in Minnesota. Still, he had an opportunity with the Wolves. At the time, the Timberwolves had little impact from their bench guards Jaylen Nowell, Austin Rivers, Jordan McLaughlin, Bryn Forbes, and Wendell Moore Jr.
Alexander-Walker seized this opportunity early and thrived. However, he had a different role in Minnesota. The Timberwolves used him more as an off-ball threat, allowing him to take nearly all his shots off the catch and limit his inefficiency by decreasing on-ball possessions. It was a complete change from how he had played throughout his early NBA career.
It’s challenging to make sense of Alexander-Walker’s time with the New Orleans Pelicans at the start of his career. The Pelicans weren’t great in his time there, but he could never find a consistent way to positively impact the game.
Alexander-Walker’s teammates created shots for him at the start of his career. They assisted on 91.3% of his three-point (3P) shots in his rookie season. However, they didn’t assist on many of his inside-the-arc field goals.
Over time, he started making more assisted 2P field goals, jumping to 34.5% in his second season and 39.4% in his third. He made quick decisions as a 3P shooter but was more methodical with his 2P field goal attempts.
Much of Alexander-Walker’s on-ball usage in New Orleans was as a pick-and-roll (PnR) ball-handler. It was his most frequent type of play with the Pelicans. When Alexander-Walker got downhill in New Orleans, it was often off a ball screen. As a scoring combo-guard, the Pelicans allowed him to look for his shot.
In Alexander-Walker’s full two seasons with the Pelicans, he had his two highest marks in PnR ball-handler frequency: 35.5% in his rookie season and 31.7% a year later. He was still finding his rhythm in the NBA, and playing off the PnR wasn’t working.
Alexander-Walker struggled to find his groove early with New Orleans because he was not good enough to provide a positive output within his more shot-creation role, a trend that would follow him during his brief time in Utah.
Alexander-Walker’s points-per-possession output was not productive in New Orleans, and he was inefficient. He had a 49% true-shooting percentage and a 46.9% effective field-goal percentage in 143 games with the Pelicans.
Utah unlocked something in Alexander-Walker by increasing his spot-up reps and three-point rate from his time in New Orleans. However, the change was nothing compared to what happened in Minnesota.
Alexander-Walker’s percentage of field goals assisted data and spot-up frequency massively increased once the Wolves fully integrated him into their offense. In the 2023-24 season, Alexander-Walker’s first full year with the Timberwolves, his percentage of field goals assisted was at a career-high mark of 97.7%.
Alexander-Walker’s newfound shot diet directly coincided with the best 3P shooting season of his career. In the 2023-24 season with Minnesota, Alexander-Walker:
Shot a career-high 39.1% from three.
Shot a career-high 41.7% on catch-and-shoot threes.
Had a career-high 49.1% of his shot attempts be catch-and-shoot threes.
Had his three-point rate jump from 48.5% in New Orleans and 55% in Utah, to 62.3%
Had a career-high 48.7% play-type frequency on spot-up possessions, up from a previous career-high of 30.4% in 2022-23.
The Timberwolves also recognized that Alexander-Walker’s on-ball reps were less fruitful than his off-ball reps and slashed his heavy PnR usage.
2019-20 – 35.5% PnR frequency | 0.65 points per 100 possessions
2020-21 – 31.7% PnR frequency | 0.83 points per 100 possessions
2021-22 – 27.3% PnR frequency | 0.80 points per 100 possessions
2022-23 – 27.5% PnR frequency | 0.95 points per 100 possessions
2023-24 – 16.4% PnR frequency | 0.63 points per 100 possessions
2024-25 – 18.3% PnR frequency | 0.66 points per 100 possessions
Alexander-Walker struggled when initiating the offense amidst Minnesota’s backup point guard issues. Ultimately, the Wolves maximized Alexander-Walker by using him as a spot-up 3P shooter.
Alexander-Walker’s consistency in his newfound role earned him regular minutes. However, his real success came from his impact on winning basketball.
Alexander Walker didn’t just take advantage of Minnesota’s lack of guard depth. His impact became more valuable when he accepted his new role and abandoned his old playstyle, which carried him through college and into his first few seasons in the NBA.
“This is the only place I’ve had a real opportunity to play and be the best version of myself,” Alexander-Walker said during his exit interview.
While Alexander-Walker may sign with another team this off-season due to Minnesota’s cap crunch, and Julius Randle and Naz Reid hitting free agency, Alexander-Walker is a vital case study on how important under-the-radar acquisitions remain in today’s NBA salary cap era.
The Timberwolves completely transformed Alexander-Walker’s play style to fit winning basketball, and he gave them two excellent seasons of play off the bench. In those two seasons, Alexander-Walker was on an affordable 2-year $9-million contract, significantly less than he’s likely to make this off-season.
To continue their success in the Anthony Edwards era, the Wolves must continue to find development projects like Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
There’s an immense amount of talent in the NBA. Teams often miscast players into different roles early in their careers, and teams must occasionally reinvent a player’s role. However, the Timberwolves and Tim Connelly have proven, and need to continue to prove, that they can evaluate and develop talent to fit their timeline and nucleus.