The calendar has turned to June, which means it's time to crown a champion. It was just last year that the Dallas Mavericks were gearing up for game one against the Boston Celtics. Alas, the NBA moves at warp speed and is not afraid to leave you behind. This year, we’ve got an interesting matchup to end the year. The champions of the Eastern Conference, the fourth seeded Indiana Pacers, are set to take on the overall number one seed in the playoffs, the Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
These are the two best teams in the NBA by record since January 1st. In the playoffs, the Pacers have made relatively quick work of their run through the playoffs. They have not faced elimination yet and have only been forced past game five only once. The Thunder, meanwhile, can say the same thing, although they did face elimination in game seven against the Denver Nuggets.
Who will come out victorious? Let’s preview the NBA Finals.
Odds provided by theDraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
(4) Indiana Pacers vs (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
Series winner: OKC (-650) Indiana (+475)
Series spread: OKC -2.5 games (-140) Indiana (+120)
Tyler’s pick: Thunder in 5
I really, really want to come up with some rationale to where I can take the Pacers here. I am a well-documented hater of the Thunder. Even with that, there is not much that I can come up with to get the Pacers a path. The best that I can come up with is that the Pacers are 7-1 in clutch games this postseason, so if they can get enough of these games close down the stretch, they can clutch merchant their way to four wins. Beyond that, it’s bleak for me.
The Pacers have good depth off the bench, but you mean to tell me that TJ McConnell is going to have a great impact against Cason Wallace? Is Ben Sheppard going to hold up? What can Bennedict Mathurin bring on any given night? Even in the starting group, Myles Turner has been extremely hit or miss, Haliburton just scored eight points in a potential close out game against the Knicks, and Pascal Siakam can’t be the best player on this team for it to win. OKC is just going to be too much, I fear.
Series props
OKC to win series in exactly 5 (+230)
Shai to lead series in assists (+250)
Jalen Williams to record 4+ assists in each game (+195)
I am hopping aboard the “fade Haliburton express” in this series. Dort is going to be the match up, and in the past, he has been able to bother Hali. Because of that, I’ll back SGA coming off of a great series against Minnesota. For Jalen Williams, he’s been right at this number in basically every game of the postseason. At nearly 2/1 odds, I’ll take my chances.
David’s pick: Pacers in 6
The few and the proud can be used to describe two notable factions in this country: the Marines and the people picking the Pacers to win this series. I am no Marine, but I am taking the Pacers to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It may be an overthink, and Oklahoma City could wipe the floor with Indiana. But, at the very least, this will be a much closer series than the “experts” think, and the Pacers have a chance to shock the world.
The key statistic in this series will be three-point shooting. It was what Dallas used to beat the Thunder last season, and what Indiana will have to utilize for them to stay in the race. Oklahoma City’s defense is suffocating. They held Denver and Memphis under 42 percent shooting. Minnesota’s offensive rating dropped four points from their regular-season number in the Conference Finals. Scoring points on them is a tall task, but if you can find ways to stretch their defense, they are vulnerable. In the game that Minnesota won (convincingly), they shot 50 percent from deep compared to the Thunder’s 31 percent. In the other four, the Timberwolves shot under 35 percent thrice and 45 percent once (and only lost by two). In the second round last year, the Mavericks outshot the Thunder 40 percent to 33 percent from deep.
The Pacers are currently shooting 40 percent from three in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is at 34 percent. Maintaining this discrepancy will be the key to Indiana’s success. Additionally, the Pacers are the team of destiny, and I am expecting a miracle win in this Finals. Pair all of this with the coaching advantage Rick Carlisle has, and Indiana has enough to get this done. Give me Indiana in six games.
Series props
Pascal Siakam to average 20+ PPG (-170)
Tyrese Haliburton to average 10+ APG (+100)
Pacers to win (+475)
Over 5.5 games (+120)
Siakam will be a key in this series. He has to win his matchup against Jalen Williams or whatever secondary defender they decide to put on him. Haliburton is the best passer in this series, and in such a small sample size, a game of 15 assists that he is capable of getting can keep the average up high. The series is not ending in five games either way, and the Pacers are going to win. It is time to bring a ring home for the Hoosiers.