2025 NBA Finals - Game One
Source: Matthew Stockman / Getty
Vegas Continues Their Streak At Being Very Wrong About The Indiana Pacers This Postseason
The Indiana Pacers continue to defy expectations and prove doubters wrong during their historic 2025 NBA Playoffs run.
Time and time again, Vegas sportsbooks have underestimated this resilient squad.
Despite their impressive postseason performances, the odds have consistently favored their opponents, and the trend continued in the NBA Finals.
Heading into Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Pacers were listed as 10-point underdogs, cementing the narrative that few believed they could compete with the Western Conference champions.
Yet, Indiana stunned everyone by pulling off an upset in a thrilling 111-110 victory.
The Odds Don’t Lie, but They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
From the start of the playoffs, the Pacers were labeled underdogs.
Vegas gave them the longest odds to win the Eastern Conference Finals and only slightly more respect heading into the NBA Finals.
According to one BetMGM trading manager, the Thunder had been favorites since the start of the postseason, with odds as steep as -700 to win the championship.
Meanwhile, Indiana’s odds soared to +500 at some sportsbooks, painting a bleak picture for Pacers fans.
This lack of trust wasn’t just in the series line but extended to individual games.
The Thunder were 10-point favorites for Game 1, a massive spread in the Finals.
The Pacers not only covered that spread but also stole the win on the Thunder’s home court, silencing doubters once again.
Oklahoma City’s dominance throughout the postseason, including multiple double-digit victories, likely played a role in the disrespect toward Indiana, but it’s clear that oddsmakers underestimated the Pacers’ grit, balance, and ability to execute under pressure.
Lack of Respect or Lack of Research?
Vegas’ odds have repeatedly suggested a limited understanding of the Pacers’ true capabilities.
Indiana has played with an unmatched level of focus and resilience in these playoffs, knocking out higher-seeded teams like the Cavaliers and Knicks along the way.
Their formula has been rooted in exceptional road performances, stellar leadership from Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and an unrelenting pace that opposing defenses struggle to contain.
Despite this, Vegas continued to overlook their ability to thrive against adversity.
For example, while the Thunder boasted an MVP favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a formidable defense, Indiana’s dynamic duo of Haliburton and Siakam has proven equally lethal.
Critics might argue that the Pacers lack household names compared to Oklahoma City, but their team-oriented approach has demonstrated why basketball is a game of five, not one.
The Game 1 upset throws another wrench into the perception of the Pacers.
It’s a message to sportsbooks and critics alike that this team is more than just an underdog; they are legitimate championship contenders.
Perhaps this persistent underestimation reveals just how flawed the metrics and perceptions often used to set these odds can be.
Betting professionals and analysts have consistently pointed to the Pacers’ ability to perform on the road and their knack for proving Vegas wrong, yet the sportsbooks remain hesitant to adjust their perspective.
With Indiana’s Game 1 victory, it’s clear the Finals won’t be as one-sided as the odds-makers predicted.
The Pacers are riding the momentum of not only a strong postseason but also the confidence that comes from consistently defying expectations.
If there’s one lesson to learn here, it’s that Vegas doesn’t always have all the answers, and the numbers on paper don’t fully capture the heart, chemistry, and fight of the Indiana Pacers.
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