After reaching at least the NFC Championship Game four times in the previous five seasons, the San Francisco 49ers finished last in the NFC West last year with a 6-11 record. That disappointing season brought an organizational reset in terms of cash outlay this offseason, and the exit of multiple veterans, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Injuries were a driving force for the 49ers' drop-off last season, highlighted by Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams playing a combined total of 21 games. A turn toward youth defensively, and the guidance of Robert Saleh, can only make things better there.
The idea the 49ers could go from worst-to-first in the NFC West this year has been out there some, under the sheer idea of having key players on the field more than they were last year.
An easy schedule is also very helpful to that concept.
49ers' path to taking back the NFC West this year is clear (and almost easy)
Using a simulation from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), taking into account win totals from the betting markets and a team's schedule, Aaron Schatz has ranked the eight last place teams in the NFL last season by their chances to go worst-to-first this year.
The 49ers easily had the best odds to win their division (35.8 percent) and make the playoffs (62.4 percent in the group. That chance to win the division was tops in the NFC West overall, and that playoff chance was third in the NFC.
"The 49ers have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons: schedule, health and they weren't really that bad last season."
"San Francisco finished the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings at FTN didn't have the 49ers quite that high, but they were still 14th despite a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easily the best ever by an 11-loss team, going all the way back to 1978."
According to FTN Fantasy, as Schatz noted, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury last season. That's an indicator for improvement the following season, based sheerly on expected correction on the health front.
Schatz then put a finer point on the schedule advantage the 49ers have, directly related to the Los Angeles Rams.
"Finally, the 49ers have the easiest projected schedule in the league, which is why FPI favors them to win the NFC West over the Rams, who are rated higher overall. The NFC South and AFC South make for an easy schedule outside of their division games, while the 49ers also get to play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams have a much harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens and Lions."
It's easy to just say "if (name any or all players who missed time last year) are healthy, the 49ers will win the NFC West this year." But there are plenty of numbers that say they weren't as bad as a typical 11-loss team last year, despite all the injuries, and Schatz's analytics added to that list.
If the 49ers fail to take back the top spot in their division this year, it will be due to reasons beyond the thing that hurt them most last year.
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