Mike Maignan might not be a popular figure in Milan right now. Not only is he itching to leave and join Chelsea but his performance for France will not have done new manager Max Allegri much good.
With the two clubs negotiating over a price for Maignan, who is out of contract in just over 12 months, this was not the time to concede five goals. Coming off the back of possibly his worst senior season in eight years, Milan do not hold too much strength.
They are out of Europe, let alone just the Champions League, after an eighth-place finish in Serie A. They are onto a third manager since the start of last season, and have a genuine rebuild on their hands.
Maignan now wishes to leave to move to Chelsea and whilst the clubs are apart on the transfer fee, Maignan did little to justify the asking price on Thursday as France were beaten 5-4 by Spain in the Nations League. At one point they were 4-0 down and Maignan might have done better with at least two of the goals.
The narrative can easily be twisted as the 29-year-old being a distracted man as Chelsea and Milan hold talks ahead of the June 10 mini summer transfer deadline for players to be registered in time for the Club World Cup later this month. Maignan picked the wrong moment to have a poor game, even if Chelsea and their finances might not agree.
Supporters should not be persuaded against Maignan on this game alone but it does follow a bit of a trend which explains why Chelsea are reticent to give in to Milan's demands. The sides have been good friends in recent years, even if they have had to haggle over price. Since 2021, Fikayo Tomori, Christian Pulisic, Olivier Giroud, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Joao Felix have all made the switch from SW6 to San Siro.
Maignan would be going the opposite way and now it is Chelsea's turn to fight their corner. Reports suggest that there is a significant but not unbridgeable gap in valuation.
Milan, wary of losing Maignan for free in 2026, are still after close to £25million. Chelsea, smelling blood and looking to take advantage, are currently looking at closer to £10million.
Whilst some have been critical of Chelsea's market tactics, it is understandable why the recruitment team are not simply bowing to the demands of Milan. Yes, Maignan is an established name in world football and represents an upgrade in stature, at least, over Robert Sanchez, but it is not that simple.
The argument that Chelsea were willing to spend so much money on Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Joao Felix, Sanchez himself (as well as his underwhelming backup Filip Jorgensen), not to mention the countless teenage talents signed for plenty more, but are now holding out on Maignan, and showing why they are not a serious institution, is unfair. Two wrongs do not make a right.
Chelsea made mistakes, absolutely massive ones, with a lot of the business and prices here (the above names cost a combined £122million and none are certain to be at the club next season). But giving in to Milan over Maignan is not the correct move either.
Maignan will be 30 at the start of next month. This is not old for a goalkeeper but he is trending downwards. It has been three league seasons since he last prevented more goals than his xG (expected goals) suggested he should have based on the shots faced.
Mike Maignan
Chelsea are interested in AC Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan (Image: Image Photo Agency)
Although he has been on cusp of going positive in this respect in two out of those three, it is not necessarily the major improvement on Sanchez that it seemed at first view. Chelsea being linked with Maignan was a great surprise in the first place, so it is logical that most were excited.
Maignan, after all, is a household name. He has won major trophies, he is experienced, and he has been Milan's captain at times. He is the No.1 for his country and has played in the Champions League.
Between 2020/21 and 2021/22 he had a genuine claim to be among the best in his position and was a rising star in the European game. He won the league in back-to-back seasons at Lille and then Milan. Only in his mid-20s at this stage, Maignan looked set to be one of the top goalkeepers around for a while.
Since then, turbulence at Milan has not helped as his underlying numbers reflect. Although there is penalty noise to account for, Maignan has a post-shot xG differential of -6.1 in the last three years. Essentially, it means that he has let in six goals more than xG models would expect of him based off where shots have ended up, not just where they have been taken from. They are not the underlying metrics of a brilliant goalkeeper.
Sanchez, in comparison, only has one net positive season in his last four (which, ironically, was this year), but has only conceded three more than expected in that time. This, though, does not account for the other mistakes he has made with his feet, and there is more on that to come.
Robert Sanchez
Robert Sanchez celebrates Chelsea's stoppage time winner against Fulham (Image: Visionhaus)
On the surface, Maignan's numbers are a reflection of his shot-stopping performance across a relatively large body of work. Compare that to the four years prior and it is slightly worrying for Chelsea.
Maignan let in 18 goals fewer than expected between 2018 and 2022. That is elite performance but that is now quite a long time ago and the questions being asked at Chelsea are whether the reward of Maignan's best is worth the risk of tying into another contract for a 'keeper when there are alternatives.
Sanchez, for example, is far from a popular player but his underlying numbers have generally been impressive this season. Especially since he returned to the side in March, Sanchez was solid and reliable for Chelsea.
His problem has forever been decision-making and errant passing. Although he is happy to play short (on the whole), he often causes more problems than many believe it is worth. Enzo Maresca disagrees but was nonetheless brought to dropping Sanchez in January.
Chelsea have needed to find a better option almost ever since Sanchez joined, and Maignan does appear to be that, but it would require a change in fortune. Maignan in his current form is arguably no upgrade at all in several areas.
The big plus that Maignan has is his passing. Compared to Sanchez, he plays a similar volume of passes but of a shorter length, which suits Maresca's desired style. He went direct less often last season but has a similar completion percentage to previous years.
(Image: © 2024 Marco Canoniero)
Maignan completes his sweeper-keeper actions higher up the field than Sanchez, which allows for a more advanced defensive line, and does them more regularly than Sanchez as well. His progressive passing distance is up and so is his accuracy.
He is almost twice as good at completing accurate launches. This allows Chelsea to play through a press, something that Sanchez has massively struggled with. You cannot put a number on confidence that a defence gets from the goalkeeper, and Sanchez rarely transmits that.
Maignan certainly could bring that and he has spent enough time at the top to help a young team massively. Sanchez cannot compete with this sort of thing given his EFL and Brighton background.
So on this front, Maignan would offer Chelsea something new. However, he is considerably worse at dealing with crosses, which Sanchez excels at. Last season Maignan only stopped 5.8 per cent of crosses which is less than half than Sanchez dealt with. Last season was a particular low for Maignan but even at his peak he was comfortably below eight per cent.
Sanchez's aerial dominance is among the best in the Premier League. He has made poor decisions on when to come for some balls, which have been costly, so again, it is his mental side and consistency that have been a big letdown.
Ultimately, Chelsea need to find a goalkeeper they can trust. The question is, can Maignan find his shot-stopping form from the early 2020s to be that man and perform as such as well? If he can, then £25million is absolutely a fair price for Chelsea to pay, even with his contract uncertainty. But it is not like Maignan is right at the top of his game and Chelsea are being stubborn for the sake of it.
They have been bruised by signing ageing players on the way down before (namely Kalidou Koulibaly and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang). Maignan, as a 'keeper, should go on for longer and be less affected by that, but it is only right that Chelsea do not fall at Milan's knees just because he is available.
They must try to get a deal done for a good price, and whether being hung up on between £5-10million is right or not, this time round it does make sense to be wary. For around £15-20million, Maignan is worth the risk for Chelsea, his match against Spain should not change that.
But if Milan hold out and do not budge then Chelsea would be justified in moving away. They have Djordje Petrovic returning from loan this summer, and he is 25 and on an upward trajectory in his career. Petrovic had an excellent season with RC Strasbourg in Ligue 1 and has earned the right to try and prove Maresca wrong.
Chelsea goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic on loan at RC Strasbourg
Djordje Petrovic deserves a chance to play for Chelsea again (Image: Jean Catuffe/Getty Images)
If Chelsea were to buy Maignan then it would sure end his stay at Stamford Bridge. That is not necessarily the wrong call to make, and relying on Petrovic is still not certain to be the correct decision either given there remain questions over his own ability at dealing with crosses and passing from the back, but it does open Chelsea up to looking foolish if Maignan continues his descent and Petrovic rises somewhere else.
These are all factors to be digested. If one thing is clear then it is that Chelsea do need to find a permanent solution to their goalkeeping problems and Sanchez, for the good stuff he can do, is simply not that. It has been evident for a while that he is not fit for purpose.
Whether Maignan represents value for money is also in doubt. Chelsea will weigh it up and probably block out his weak hands for Lamine Yamal's toe-poke or questionable positioning for Mikel Merino's near-post goal. As it is with goalkeeping, making the right decision is better than being quick to make the wrong one.
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Chelsea flag prior the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Leg One match between Chelsea FC and Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge. (Photo by Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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