The wounds are still healing.
That Game 5 loss to OKC? It was like walking into a cold lake. First, shock. Then numbness. Then you get used to it. Then you realize your soul has floated 10 feet off your body and is hovering over the shoreline.
But now that the sting has dulled and the internet has calmed down, it’s time to stop doomscrolling and start looking forward. The Timberwolves have entered what may be the single most important offseason of the Anthony Edwards era so far — and that’s saying something, considering last offseason they traded Karl-Anthony Towns.
This summer isn’t about swinging for the fences. It’s not about headline-grabbing trades or shiny new toys. It’s about threading the needle — one fine stitch at a time — to keep the Wolves’ championship window open without stepping on a landmine made of second apron penalties.
That starts with one question:
What do you do with N.A.W.?
Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The guy who showed up in the DLo trade as an after-thought and morphed into a Swiss Army knife disguised as a role player. The kind of guy who plays 26 minutes, hits two timely threes, defends three positions, and somehow ends with a +13.
He’s also an unrestricted free agent. And the Wolves’ path to keeping him is... complicated.
The Broader Landscape: Luxury Taxes and the Cap From Hell
Let’s zoom out before we zoom in.
Thanks to the new CBA, the NBA’s salary cap structure now resembles a high-stakes game of The Floor Is Lava. There are not one, but two luxury tax aprons — and the consequences of crossing them aren’t just financial anymore. They’re tactical.
Here’s the quick cheat sheet:
Luxury Tax Line Projected at $187.9 million.
Teams exceeding this threshold pay a tax on the overage, with rates escalating based on the amount over the line and repeat offenses.
Tax Brackets: Luxury tax rates increase with the salary cap (previously fixed at $5 million intervals). For 2025-26, exact rates depend on the final cap growth, but historically, they start at $1.50 per dollar for the first $5 million over the tax line, with higher rates for larger overages and repeat offenders.
First Apron Projected at $195.6 million (approximately $7 million above the luxury tax line).
Teams exceeding this face:
A reduced Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (MLE).
Restrictions on salary matching in trades (limited to 110% of outgoing salary in 2023-24, dropping to 100% starting in 2024-25).
Prohibition on signing buyout players whose previous salary exceeded the MLE.
If a team executes a trade between the end of the regular season and June 30 that violates first-apron rules, they are hard-capped at the first apron for the current and following season (e.g., 2025-26).
Second Apron Projected at $207.8 million ($17.5 million above the luxury tax line).
Cross this and Adam Silver himself comes to your house and slaps the phone out of your hand before you can call a free agent.
Okay, not really. But it does trigger major restrictions:
Loss of the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception.
Inability to send cash in trades or use players in sign-and-trade deals.
Prohibition on aggregating salaries for trade matching (e.g., combining multiple players’ salaries to match a single incoming salary).
Inability to take back more salary in a trade than sent out.
Freezing of first-round draft picks seven years out (e.g., 2032 for 2025-26). If a team exceeds the second apron in two of the next four years, that pick moves to the end of the first round, regardless of their record. A pick can be unfrozen if the team stays at or below the second apron for three of the next four years.
Teams above the second apron are hard-capped at this level if they execute prohibited transactions (e.g., taking back more salary than sent out) between the end of the regular season and June 30.
Bottom line: if you’re a second-apron team, you better already be a contender. Not trying to be one. Not sort of hoping to be one. You better be knocking on the Larry O’Brien’s door and hearing it creak open.
Which brings us back to the Wolves.
They’re already over the cap. They will be over the first apron if Julius Randle and Naz Reid decide to opt-in and remain on their current deals. If the Wolves want to avoid the second apron — and they should — every dollar counts.
Here’s a breakdown of the current Wolves financials as it relates to the salary cap:
Guaranteed Contracts
The Timberwolves have $152,866,686 committed to players under guaranteed contracts or assumed exercised club options for 2025-26. This forms the core of their payroll:
Anthony Edwards: $45,550,512.
Rudy Gobert: $35,000,000. Signed a three-year, $109.5 million extension in 2024, guaranteeing his salary for 2025-26.
Jaden McDaniels: $27,648,276.
Mike Conley: $10,369,380.
Donte DiVincenzo: $12,189,000.
Joe Ingles: $3,477,351.
Rob Dillingham: $6,265,560. The #8 overall pick, signed at 120% of the rookie scale.
Terrence Shannon Jr.: $3,432,360. The #27 pick, also at 120% of the rookie scale,.
Leonard Miller: $2,221,677. Partially guaranteed, assumed to become fully guaranteed by June 30, 2025.
Josh Minott: $2,196,970. Club option, assumed exercised for cost-effective depth.
Luka Garza: $2,405,760. Club option, assumed exercised for low-cost frontcourt depth.
Jaylen Clark: $2,109,840. Club option, estimated from a two-year, $4.51 million deal, assumed exercised.
Player Options
Two key players have player options totaling $45,957,984, which significantly impact the payroll if they opt in:
Julius Randle: $30,935,520. Randle’s player option includes a 10% trade bonus if traded.
Naz Reid: $15,022,464.
Free Agents (Cap Holds)
The Timberwolves have two unrestricted free agents with cap holds totaling $10,906,250:
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: $8,906,250.
P.J. Dozier: $2,000,000.
Other Cap Considerations
Additional cap obligations total $5,700,000, primarily from draft picks:
2025 #17 Pick (via Detroit): $3,800,000. Estimated based on the 2024-25 rookie scale, adjusted for 10% cap growth.
2025 #31 Pick: $1,900,000. Estimated based on recent second-round contracts (e.g., Terrence Shannon Jr.).
Incomplete Roster Charge: $0. With 12 players (10 guaranteed + Randle and Reid, if both opt in), the roster meets the NBA’s 12-player minimum, avoiding a $1,223,000 charge per empty spot.
Total Payroll (Base Scenario)
Before any pending free-agents are considered, the Timberwolves total payroll, assuming Randle and Reid opt in, is $204,524,670. This includes $152,866,686 in guaranteed contracts, $45,957,984 in player options, and $5,700,000 in draft pick cap hits.
Cap Status
Relative to the 2025-26 thresholds, the Timberwolves’ cap situation is:
Salary Cap ($154,600,000): The payroll of $204,524,670 is $49,924,670 over the cap, eliminating cap space for free agent signings without exceptions.
Luxury Tax ($187,900,000): The payroll is $16,624,670 over the luxury tax line, incurring tax payments starting at $1.50 per dollar over, escalating with higher overages.
First Apron ($195,600,000): The payroll is $8,924,670 over the first apron, restricting trade salary matching to 100% and limiting the Mid-Level Exception to the Taxpayer MLE ($5.45 million).
Second Apron ($207,800,000): The payroll is $3,275,330 under the second apron, preserving access to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (~$13.2 million) and trade flexibility, avoiding severe penalties like frozen draft picks.
Sources: Salary figures from Spotrac, HoopsHype, and ESPN. Draft pick estimates based on 2024-25 rookie scale adjusted for 10% cap growth. Free agent cap holds calculated per CBA rules (190% for Bird Rights, 200% for non-Bird).
NAW: The Hidden Glue Guy
Let’s talk about what this dude is.
He’s a high-effort, low-usage guard who defends 1-through-3. He hits enough threes to punish sagging defenders. He’s smart, selfless, and can seamlessly slide next to either Ant or Conley. He’s the definition of connective tissue.
He’s also a guy who makes winning plays. Go back and watch Minnesota’s final regular season game against Denver. You know the one I’m talking about - the double OT thriller where Jokic’s season-high 61 points were nullified by Nickeil hitting a pair of cold-blooded free-throws to end the game. NAW was everywhere — deflections, contests, diving for loose balls, cutting at just the right time. He’s like the NBA’s version of the bassist in a great rock band. You don’t always notice him. But when he’s gone, the song sounds off.
When it comes to Nickeil Alexander-Walker, this isn’t a case of “do the Wolves want to keep him?” Of course they do. That part’s obvious. Everyone in the organization values him — Finch, Ant, the locker room, the analytics guys, the fans. But this isn’t about want. It’s about reality — specifically, the cold, frustrating, CBA-shaped reality of whether the Wolves can afford to keep him.
This isn’t about whether Alex Rodriguez wants to trim a few zeroes off the books to buy another yacht. This is about flexibility — the kind of long-term, roster-shaping flexibility that determines whether a team with a bona fide superstar entering his prime (hi, Ant) can stay in the contender conversation for the next five years. It’s the same exact logic that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York last summer. That wasn’t a basketball move — that was a CBA survival move. The Wolves saw what was coming and chose optionality over nostalgia.
And now? They’re up against it again.
The Odd Man Out
NAW absolutely makes this team better. He’s a culture guy. He’s a grinder. He’s won them games as the eighth man, sometimes with his defense, sometimes with timely shooting, sometimes with sheer effort. But if you look at this strictly through a financial lens — which, unfortunately, Tim Connelly and company have to — it becomes harder and harder to justify retaining him.
Assuming both Julius Randle and Naz Reid opt into their contracts, Minnesota is already staring down the second apron — and NAW doesn’t even have a deal yet. He made just $4.3 million last season, one of the best value contracts on the team, but that number is about to double — maybe more. And if you’re a team like the Wolves, a team that’s operating with a championship ceiling but a tightrope-thin salary sheet, you simply cannot hard-cap yourself for your eighth man.
Let’s say NAW gets something like $10 million a year. That kind of deal might be totally reasonable in a vacuum. But if signing him at that number means you can’t make in-season trades, can’t use the mid-level exception, and lose all upward mobility? That’s not just a luxury tax issue. That’s a competitive window issue.
And it only gets more complicated when you start stacking the roster choices.
If Minnesota has to pick two out of three between Randle, Reid, and NAW — and unless someone takes a surprise pay cut, that’s almost certainly the case — then Nickeil is probably the odd man out. It’s brutal. But that’s just the math.
You can’t easily replace Naz’s ability to be an inside and outside threat. You can’t easily replace Julius’s creation and frontcourt size. Outside of Rudy Gobert, the Wolves don’t have another starter-level big on the roster. Take away one of those guys, and suddenly you’re asking Luka Garza to guard Jaren Jackson Jr. in a playoff game. Good luck with that.
On the other hand, the backcourt has actual depth. Ant, DDV, Conley — that’s your top three. But behind them, you’ve got two up-and-coming wildcards in Terence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark, both of whom look ready to eat real rotation minutes next season. That’s not redundancy — that’s insulation.
The Verdict
That’s what ultimately tilts the balance. The Wolves could replace NAW’s minutes internally. They can’t replace Reid or Randle nearly as easily. So unless one of those guys walks and unexpectedly frees up space under the apron, NAW might simply be a luxury the Wolves can’t afford anymore.
That doesn’t mean he wasn’t important. He was. He is. He might be outshined by his MVP cousin, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker has shown us — repeatedly — that he’s a real NBA player, a winning player. He’s earned every minute he played here, and then some. But the league’s economics are what they are. And right now, with frontcourt depth a priority, with a true Conley successor still needing to be identified, and with younger guys on the verge of breaking through, Nickeil’s role — and cost — may no longer align with the Wolves’ big-picture needs.
He’s going to get paid. He deserves to get paid. He might find a starting gig elsewhere. And honestly? Good for him. He’ll be a cap casualty in Minnesota — the kind of player you wish you could keep but just can’t.
That’s the new NBA. Every contending team is going to feel this squeeze. Too much talent, not enough dollars to go around, and a cap system designed to force tough choices. This summer, NAW is one of them.
If I’m Tim Connelly, I’m prioritizing Randle and Reid. I’m protecting the frontcourt. I’m leaning on the youth movement — TSJ, Clark, maybe even Rob Dillingham — to step into the void.
Will it suck to lose Nickeil? Of course.
Will we be happy to see him back in a Wolves jersey if a path opens up? Absolutely.
But right now? All signs are pointing to goodbye.
And if this is the end of Nickeil’s run in Minnesota, we send him off with nothing but respect — for the work, the grit, and the way he always made this team feel whole when it needed it most.