The Indiana Pacers shouldn’t have won Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
But they did.
Still, they know that playing as poorly as they did in the first half of Game 1 should have given them a loss, not an iconic moment in Pacers’ history.
“This game if you look at all the numbers, it’s not the recipe to win. We can’t turn the ball over that much. We have to do a better job of being in gaps, rebounding, all over the floor but come May and June, it doesn’t matter how you get them, just get them,” Tyrese Haliburton said after Game 1.
If the Pacers want to win Game 2 and take a commanding lead over the Thunder in the Finals, they need more than a recipe change; they need to be completely aware that whatever happened for them to win Game 1 was part tenacity, part luck. The ingredients they threw together caused a fire but somehow didn’t burn down the kitchen.
What any rational person should believe is that while there are certain things about the psychology of this Indiana team, the number of clutch shots made by Haliburton or comebacks at the last minute is not something anyone should expect to continue.
Unless the plan is to have The Moment (no, we’re not calling him that) and the Pacers continue to defy statistical probability, then here are a few things they simply can’t do if they want to win Game 2.
Don’t commit 25 turnovers
The Pacers were not ready for the aggressiveness of Oklahoma City’s defense in the first half, and the 19 turnovers are a testament to that.
Indiana tried to split gaps that weren’t there. They tried to thread passes inside or drive into pairs of defenders and were flummoxed by the result. If the ball came down below Indiana’s shoulders, the Thunder were ready to swipe and slap the ball loose and create a turnover.
The good news for Indiana is that they adapted in the second half and dropped their turnovers down to just five.
The Pacers were frankly lucky that there weren’t as many live-ball turnovers in those two dozen giveaways. They did get back on defense when they made mistakes and only allowed nine points off the giveaways, but you don’t want to give a 68-win team extra possessions.
If the Pacers did learn that the physical, swarming nature of the OKC’s defense means they can’t get away with certain things, then this might be the easiest thing for Indiana to clean up going into Game 2.
Don’t assume the shots will continue to fall
Things like Obi Toppin making more threes than he’s taken in any playoff game this season were great in Game 1, but is that what you want to bet on in Game 2?
The Pacers can’t assume the bank will remain open — that was a heist by Myles Turner — and that they’ll make nearly half of their three-pointers.
They are a great shooting team, the best in the playoffs, but wins like Game 1 come with extremely narrow margins. They had to make 60% of their three-pointers in the fourth quarter to win; if not, this series wouldn’t feel up for grabs, and Indiana fans aren’t fantasizing about actually winning the finals.
Indiana played smarter basketball in the second half, but it’s worth pointing out the sheer unlikeliness of what happened, even for the cardiac-induced stress progeny Pacers.
Conversely, don’t assume Indiana’s own defense was why Oklahoma City shot 36.8% in the fourth quarter and missed all their three-pointers in those critical minutes. Some of those shots are going to fall in Game 2.
Jalen Williams and Chet Holgrem went 8 from 28 on Thursday. I wouldn’t bet on both of them shooting 33% in Game 2.
Don’t send Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to the foul line
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 9.1 free throws per game in this year’s playoffs. He only went to the line six times on Thursday.
What are the chances that betting the under pays off again? For a man fighting free-throw merchant allegations that is extremely unlikely.
Most of the night SGA was guarded by either Aaron Nesmith or Andrew Nembhard, and the Pacers’ duo kept him to a 29.4% shooting percentage on 17 attempts. They managed to do that without sending the MVP to the free-throw line at a steady clip.
The Pacers do seem to have a plan throughout the playoffs of focusing on keeping everyone but the other team’s best player from scoring — coach Rick Carlisle denies this — but he does believe SGA and the Thunder will be more aggressive in Game 2.
It requires physical defense to stop Gilgeous-Alexander, but that also means fouls will come. The Pacers can still win if SGA is shooting more free throws, but they might as well assume that they’re going to have to clean up other mistakes from Game 1 to make up for that.
What has to happen in Game 2
Very simply, the Pacers can’t be sloppy. They can’t just hope another comeback is going to happen. They may believe in themselves, but to plan on that is pure hubris.
The turnover battle will play a key role, but the Pacers had more than that to clean up after Game 1. The defense let several easy shots be taken, even during the frantic comeback that should have made that rally a failed one.
The Pacers played bad basketball in the first half, bad enough they shouldn’t have had any chance to win. They caught some breaks — who calls a lane violation these days? — and took advantage of them.
The Pacers can’t win if they play like they did in Game 1. If they do play that poorly and still win, we’re going to need to investigate some of the Pacers’ witchcraft memes on social media more seriously.
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