Norwich City and Watford earned automatic promotion together in 2020/21Norwich City and Watford earned automatic promotion together in 2020/21 (Image: PA)
2020/21 – AFC Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich City
Starting with the 2020/21 campaign, there were two success stories. Norwich had a torrid time in the Premier League, dropping down after picking up just 21 points from five wins, six draws and 27 defeats.
They didn’t do much to strengthen their squad, but crucially kept key players like Teemu Pukki and Emi Buendia, who fired them to a 97-point title winning campaign.
Watford’s campaign was stranger. They lost quite a few key players, such as Abdoulaye Doucoure, Roberto Pereyra and Gerard Deulofeu. Crucially, they kept winger Ismaila Sarr at the club for the entire campaign, but controversially sacked manager Vladimir Ivic in December while sitting fifth in the league.
Xisco came in as his replacement, ensuring a second-place finish with 91 points following a strong second half of the season.
Bournemouth didn’t join them back in the Premier League, having struggled following Eddie Howe’s departure. Jason Tindall lasted until the start of February, when he was replaced by Jonathan Woodgate,
They only signed five players – three of which were on loan – and ended up in sixth place with 77 points, losing to eventual play-off winners Brentford over two legs.
Bounced back: 2/3
Fulham have remained in the Premier League since Aleksander Mitrovic fired them to promotionFulham have remained in the Premier League since Aleksander Mitrovic fired them to promotion (Image: PA)
2021/22 – Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
Fulham spent far too long bouncing between the Premier League and the Championship, but having been relegated once again in 2020/21, something seemed to click. Marco Silva – who is still their manager – came in following Scott Parker’s exit, guiding them to the title with 90 points.
The arrival of Liverpool’s Harry Wilson gave them an edge in the second tier, but it was Aleksander Mitrovic who did the heavy lifting, scoring an astonishing 43 league goals. The Cottagers have now established themselves in the top flight, entering their fourth consecutive campaign at the level next season.
West Brom and Sheffield United didn’t cope with relegation as well as Fulham did. The Baggies ended up appointing Valerien Ismael as manager, but with things not working out, they replaced him with Steve Bruce, who could only secure a 10th-place finish. They still remain in the Championship, having finished fifth once and ninth twice.
The Blades did a bit better, moving Slavisa Jokanovic on in November and bringing in Paul Heckingbottom. They ended up in fifth place, losing to Nottingham Forest over two legs in the play-off semi-finals.
Forest went on to secure promotion with a 1-0 win against Huddersfield Town at Wembley, then surviving in the Premier League and qualifying for Europe last season. Bournemouth, who finished second under Parker, have also established themselves at the highest level under Parker.
Bounced back: 1/3
Burnley won the title after Vincent Kompany changed their style of playBurnley won the title after Vincent Kompany changed their style of play (Image: PA)
2022/23 – Burnley, Watford, Norwich City
2022/23 was the season that Watford and Norwich were dreading. Known for recovering after relegation, this time, they didn’t.
The Hornets had a chaotic season. Rob Edwards replaced Roy Hodgson in the summer, but he was only given until the end of September. Slaven Bilic stepped in next, but he lasted until the start of March, when Chris Wilder was picked as his replacement. They finished 11th.
The Canaries did even worse. Dean Smith’s appointment was a disaster and he was sacked after a Boxing Day defeat at Luton Town. David Wagner came in, but they ended up in 13th, seven points off the play-offs. Both Watford and Norwich remain in the Championship.
Burnley, however, came straight back up, winning the league with 101 points under Vincent Kompany. They lost just three games all season, adapting to life without Sean Dyche by adopting an open, expansive style of football.
Promoted alongside them were Sheffield United and play-off winners Luton Town. All three sides were immediately relegated back to the Championship.
Bounced back: 1/3
Leeds United lost to Southampton in the 2023/24 play-off finalLeeds United lost to Southampton in the 2023/24 play-off final (Image: PA)
2023/24 – Leicester City, Leeds United, Southampton
The 2023/24 Championship was shark-infested waters. Southampton and Leicester City were relegated after lengthy spells in the top flight. The Foxes had won the Premier League and played in Europe in their stint away from the Championship. They entered as title favourites and delivered.
Enzo Maresca’s approach was questioned, but he did what was required, bagging 97 points in his maiden season as a manager in English football, having lost key players like James Maddison, Youri Tielemans and Harvey Barnes.
Leeds and Southampton ended up on 90 and 87 points respectively, but neither earned automatic promotion. The former beat Norwich in the play-off semi-finals while the latter knocked out West Brom, setting up a Wembley showdown, where the Saints won 1-0.
Promoted in second? Ipswich, stepping up from League One to the Premier League. Once again, however, all three sides were relegated at the first time of asking.
Bounced back: 2/3
Luton Town suffered back-to-back relegations to League OneLuton Town suffered back-to-back relegations to League One (Image: PA)
2024/25 – Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United
Another mixed bag to end with. Burnley ended up as the outliers once again, appointing promotion-specialist Parker to secure a second-place finish. They will be back in the Premier League again next season and will hope to finally establish themselves at the level. They will be joined by Leeds, who won the title on goal difference.
Sheffield United re-appointed Chris Wilder at the end of their top-flight campaign, but he was faced with a two-point deduction. Nonetheless, the Blades remained in a fierce promotion battle until the very end of the season, where they wobbled and dropped into the play-offs. They thrashed Bristol City in the semi-finals but lost out to Sunderland at Wembley.
Luton were the big surprise. Having had a competitive campaign in the Premier League, they were tipped by many to earn another promotion. Instead, they were embroiled in a fierce relegation battle, sacking Rob Edwards after an extended run of excruciatingly poor form.
Matt Bloomfield took a while to steady the ship, but a defeat to West Brom on the final day of the season sealed their fate. Back-to-back relegations to send them to League One, becoming the first side to drop from the Premier League to the third tier since Sunderland in 2017/18.
Bounced back: 1/3
Town are the bookies' favourites to go up next seasonTown are the bookies' favourites to go up next season (Image: PA)
Verdict
In each of the last five seasons, at least one of the three relegated teams bounced straight back up to the Premier League. In fact, the last time this didn’t happen was 2018/19, when Swansea City, Stoke City and West Brom were relegated but Norwich, Sheffield United and Aston Villa went up.
So history tells us that at least one of the relegated trio will make an immediate return, but quite often it’s just one, having happened in three of the last five seasons. The Championship has never seen all three earn a promotion at the first time of asking.
Of the 15 relegations in the last five years, seven have gone straight back up. That’s 46.67%.
What it suggests is that at least one of Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton will be celebrating promotion again in just under 12 months’ time. Context had to be used here, however. The Foxes are facing a hefty points deduction while the Saints are back in the Championship after one of the worst seasons in Premier League history.
The gap between the two divisions is getting wider. There will be fears of ‘doing a Luton’, or following in the footsteps of Watford and Norwich, who have been stuck in the second tier for a while. But that’s such a rarity these days with the differences in finances and squad levels.
At the very least, Town should be in the promotion conversation next season.