Could Jared Goff win his first MVP award in the 2025 season? (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
With the NFL offseason just about complete, now is the perfect time to capitalize on futures markets before training camp buzz and preseason performances shift the odds. From divisional dark horses to playoff contenders, betting early can unlock profitable value — if you know where to look. Whether you’re searching for a long-shot payoff or a high-confidence play, I’ve analyzed the landscape to identify five futures bets worth locking in.
This is an easy one. The Bucs are poised to clinch their fifth consecutive NFC South title; they are the only team in the division expected to be above average, according to the implied power ratings derived from the preseason point spreads released in May. And we can still get plus-money odds for that? Neat.
Retaining all 11 offensive starters from last season, including key playmakers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, should ensure a stable and potent attack for Tampa Bay. Its offense scored seven more points per game than expected last season, per TruMedia, the fourth-best rate in the league. The addition of first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka, who Pro Football Focus predicts could be “the next great slot receiver,” should further bolster the receiving corps.
The Bucs fortified their defense by re-signing linebacker Lavonte David for a 14th season — he ranked 21st out of 53 linebackers last season, per PFF — and acquiring edge rusher Haason Reddick (who generated 26 pressures over 241 pass-rush snaps in 2024, per PFF).
Denver Broncos to win the AFC West (at +245 or better)
I am bullish on Denver — not only to win the division but to go over 9½ wins and as a flier to win the Super Bowl. However, the divisional futures bet appears to be the best value play.
Since Sean Payton was hired ahead of the 2023 season, the Broncos improved from five wins in 2022 to eight in 2023 and 10 in 2024. And with quarterback Bo Nix entering his second season, it’s fair to expect further improvement. Just look at Nix’s progress after a slow start to his rookie season. During the first four weeks, he managed a passer rating of 62.5 and cost his team 0.3 expected points per dropback, per TruMedia. From Week 5 on, his passer rating soared to 103.2 — seventh best in the league — and he added more than 0.1 expected points per dropback. PFF ranked Nix the league’s 11th-best passer from Week 5 through the end of the regular season.
Denver shored up its defense by signing two ex-San Francisco standouts, former all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw, enhancing a unit already featuring standout cornerback Patrick Surtain II (third best in 2024, per PFF). Hufanga played just seven games last season because of torn ligaments in his wrist, but if healthy, he could again be one of the league’s better strong safeties. (He was ranked 31st of 104 safeties in 2023 by PFF.) Greenlaw is PFF’s fifth-ranked linebacker heading into 2025.
The biggest hurdle for Denver, of course, is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have dominated the AFC West with nine consecutive titles. That’s why the price for the Broncos to win the division is what it is. However, Kansas City’s offensive line faces challenges — the Chiefs traded two-time all-pro Joe Thuney to the Chicago Bears, while their first-round pick, Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons, is rehabbing a torn patellar tendon. And key players such as tight end Travis Kelce are approaching the twilight of their careers.
Baltimore Ravens to win fewer than 11½ games (at -110 or better)
Baltimore’s early-season schedule is challenging, including matchups against the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and Chiefs in the first four weeks. The Ravens haven’t won at Kansas City since their Super Bowl season in 2012, and quarterback Lamar Jackson is 0-3 at Arrowhead Stadium. Based on the implied power ratings for these teams, there is a 53 percent chance the Ravens start the season 2-2 or worse.
Five of their six divisional games come after their Week 7 bye, including trips to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the final four weeks. If Baltimore falters during that stretch, it could be difficult to defend its crown. Speaking of which, since its inception in 2002, the AFC North has never had a team win the title three straight years.
One more thing. Eventually, Derrick Henry — a huge part of Baltimore’s offense in 2024 — will start his decline, which usually happens past the age of 30 for running backs. Henry turned 31 in January, and it becomes increasingly difficult for ballcarriers to remain productive in their 30s, no matter their prior performance.
Since 2002, three running backs other than Henry have carried the ball at least 300 times and scored 10 or more rushing touchdowns in a season at or past the age of 30: Curtis Martin (2004), Thomas Jones (2009) and Adrian Peterson (2015). Martin scored five touchdowns the following season, his last in the NFL. Jones scored six touchdowns the following season and spent just one more season in the NFL after that. Peterson was injured in 2016 and was limited to three games. He would play five more seasons but never scored more than seven rushing touchdowns in any of them.
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Cincinnati Bengals to miss the playoffs (at +115 or better)
Despite a strong offense featuring quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals have missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons, finishing 9-8 in 2023 and 2024. Defense has been the issue: In 2024, Cincinnati allowed three more points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia, to rank 29th in the NFL. The retirement of defensive end Sam Hubbard and a contract dispute with top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, the runner-up for 2024 defensive player of the year honors, could further weaken the Bengals on that side of the ball.
The Bengals’ schedule also presents challenges. They will play six teams (in eight games) that are expected to be above average, per the implied ratings derived from preseason point spreads, and five of those games will be on the road. Notably, the Bengals have a Thanksgiving night game on the road against the Ravens, a matchup they have lost each of the past three seasons.
Jared Goff to be named MVP (at +2500 or better)
A quarterback has won the MVP award each of the past 12 seasons. And not just any quarterback; in each of those seasons, the winner played for a team that was its conference’s No. 1 or No. 2 seed. According to the latest betting odds, the most likely conference winners are the Philadelphia Eagles, Bills, Ravens, Chiefs and Detroit Lions. Each of the starting quarterbacks of those teams has MVP odds of +1700 or shorter — except Detroit’s Jared Goff, who is listed at a robust +3000 at some shops.
That feels like a sizable premium for a passer whose team’s conference title odds are not that far removed from that of the other contenders.
Some analysts are down on Detroit — which lost both of its coordinators — and on Goff, but they shouldn’t be. Despite the unexpected retirement of all-pro center Frank Ragnow, the Lions’ offense remains formidable with Pro Bowl talent in running back Jahmyr Gibbs — who led the NFL with 20 touchdowns last season — and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions proactively addressed their offensive line by drafting Tate Ratledge and Miles Frazier, and they have veteran internal options such as Graham Glasgow. Glasgow played just 24 snaps at center last season but allowed zero pressures on the quarterback, per PFF.