Jan 5, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) talk on the field before the start of the game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
Jan 5, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) talk on the field before the start of the game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images
The New England Patriots were the bottom dwellers of the AFC East, finishing last in both 2023 and 2024. Those performances cost two head coaches their jobs. In January of 2025, the Patriots' ownership finally hired the right guy, Mike Vrabel, and the change has been monumental.
Vrabel has instilled a new confidence in the Patriots organization, fueled by his professionalism, experience, and knowledge of the game. Those traits were sorely lacking in the previous two seasons. Now, a new confidence has permeated the building, based on facts rather than illusions.
Vrabel's personnel administration has left the lackluster efforts of the past few years in the dustbin of Patriots history. He knows what he's doing, and it's being recognized. One place is by ESPN, where a recent article by Aaron Schatz has raised a startling potentiality.
ESPN ranks the Patriots as third likeliest team to go from worst to first
The prospect of an NFL team going from last in its division to first is remote. Yet, it sometimes happens. In his article, Schatz has ranked the Patriots as the third most likely team to finish last and accomplish this feat.
"ESPN's stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?
"There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel."
Besides the obvious credit that Vrabel's influence deserves for improving the Patriots' season, there are also the numerous player upgrades the team made this offseason. From free agency to the draft, the roster is in the best position possible to go from worst to first, which likely explains their high ranking on Schatz's list.
"With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.
The problem isn't the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid."
Schatz's deference to the Buffalo Bills is wholly justified. The Bills have been the kings of the AFC East since Bill Belichick ill-advisedly kicked Tom Brady to the curb and his own legacy into the trash can. The Bills are the class of the division until some team dethrones them. But everything's changed in Foxborough, and they should be looking over their shoulders.
The Patriots are after the AFC East title now
Schatz's speculation is sound. The reasons begin with second-year quarterback, Drake Maye. Maye isn't Josh Allen, not yet, but he has the talent to challenge even Allen for supremacy. Maye has top-of-the-league potential, as his outstanding 2024 demonstrated.
Without an offensive line, a solid running game, or much at wide receiver, he logged a top rookie season. This happened despite having almost no first-team reps in the camps, the preseason, or the first five weeks of the season.
Regardless, Maye somehow notched a 66 percent completion percentage with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while running (primarily for his life) for 421 yards and two rushing TDs to boot. Maye can win the AFC East Division, but not by himself.
Fortunately, because of Vrabel, he won't have to. Vrabel rebuilt the offensive line, added several new wide receivers, including a former multiple Pro-Bowler and an explosive rookie, and drafted a game-breaking running back to assist Maye. The lackluster 2024 offense is gone.
Vrabel also revamped his defense, adding playmakers at all three levels: the defensive line and the edge, the linebacker corps, and the secondary. He also scrapped the outdated read-and-react defense and is instituting an attacking style to torment opposition offenses. And importantly, Mike Vrabel, Head Coach, is running the on-field show with an experienced supporting coaching staff.
All this supports Aaron Schatz's supposition that the Patriots have a chance to compete for a playoff spot, if not the top spot in the AFC East. None of this is certain until they play the games. But one thing is clear: this is not the 2023 or 2024 Patriots, and it will be evident from the very first snap. Don't be surprised if they do the unthinkable and surprise everyone.