A bucket-getter, scorer, freshman phenom, fabulous freshman, leading scorer of the SEC, there are many ways to describe Tre Johnson. There are many things to love about him, he is a fantastic shooter — a top 2 or 3 shooter in the draft — he is an underrated playmaker, he was one of the best scorers in college basketball this last year, he had the 9th best standing vertical leap at the combine as well as the fastest lane agility time, he stands at 6’6 with shoes with a 6’10 wingspan, and from what I have seen and heard, he seems like a great kid. There are a lot more things I could say about Tre to describe who he is and how he plays, and if you want to hear what the SLC Dunk team and I have already said, CLICK HERE!
It’s no secret that the Utah Jazz don’t have a lot going for them as far as drafting their next “guy”, and I am going to keep it real with every single one of you because we’re in the same boat; most fans are growing impatient with how long the rebuild has taken us so far, and I share your frustration. I understand the desire for a primary creator; it is so hard watching Utah Jazz basketball. However, it’s imperative we take a player who can contribute to wins 3 to 5 years from now. The last thing we need is to draft a player who is a liability in the long run; that would defeat the whole purpose of this last year of misery and tanking.
Now, I know you saw the title of the article and see that I am already dishing some low blows to Tre Johnson. Though, before I get too deep into it, I would just like to say that it is completely fine if you love Tre Johnson — he is an easy guy to fall in love with. There are so many amazing draft evaluators whose opinions I value, who love Tre Johnson and have him as high as 3! For me, that’s a bit rich — I have Tre Johnson 11th on my final big board.
Nobody knows who Tre will be in the NBA or what he will amount to; it is all educated guesses at the end of the day, and you can make a case either way, but for me, I choose to believe that Tre Johnson will be a flawed primary in the NBA. I am aware of how great Tre Johnson performed with how the Texas roster was constructed — for those of you who don’t know, Texas had a bunch of score-first, iso players who didn’t enjoy sharing the ball. So, Tre Johnson was essentially acting as the lead ball-handler/point-guard for Texas, and he did a fine job. With that being said, why in the world do I believe that Tre Johnson will be a flawed primary in the NBA? Here are my qualms.
2025 NBA Draft Combine Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
My Analytical Findings:
Tre Johnson ranks last among freshmen in HALFCOURT rim frequency at 14% (what % of a player’s shots come at the rim) and almost last in the entire class next to guys like Chaz Lanier (Tennessee) and Koby Brea (Kentucky), who rank lower than them — Ace Bailey is ahead of Tre Johnson coming in at 17%. For reference, Dylan Harper, a known guard who likes to score in the paint, has a 38% rim frequency in the halfcourt.
Why is Rim Frequency% so Important?
Rim Frequency is a very important indicator when evaluating for primary offensive roles. NBA teams expect their lead initiators to consistently pressure the rim, bend defenses, and create easy scoring opportunities, both for themselves and for teammates. Getting downhill forces rotations, opens up passing windows, and generates high-efficiency shots — all staples of sustainable, high-level offense. Conversely, players who rely heavily on perimeter jumpers and midrange pull-ups, especially without an elite first step or physical driving ability, are far easier for playoff defenses to scheme against. When low rim frequency combines with poor two-point efficiency, it raises serious concerns about a player’s ability to shoulder an efficient primary workload at the next level. Many players can survive as secondary or off-ball scorers without great rim pressure, but for projected primaries, it’s often the difference between becoming a true engine or stalling out as a volume scorer with limited impact.
Low-Rim Frequency + Usage + Rim Attempts + 2PT FG%
2PT Freq Query
Barttorvik.com
This is essentially a 2-filter production query for players who have been drafted and were around the same age as Tre Johnson (Fr-So). The filters are players who have had a high usage rate, but stayed under that 100 rim attempt threshold, showing that even though they had the ball, they didn’t take it to the rack (we already talked about Tre having one of the lowest RF% in the draft).
One of the bigger concerns with projecting Tre Johnson as a primary option at the next level is the combination of his low two-point percentage on top of his RF%. While Tre excels as a perimeter shot maker, with impressive 3PT volume and a polished midrange game, his inability to consistently generate easy looks inside the arc raises questions about his ability to create true advantages against NBA defenses. A low 2PT% for high-usage guards is less often about pure finishing ability and more about whether they can create separation and collapse the defense. When players struggle to pressure the rim and are forced to rely on tough pull-up jumpers or floaters, their offensive impact tends to be more volatile, especially in playoff settings where easy shots become paramount. Unless Tre adds more downhill burst or develops greater craft around the rim, his profile leans more toward a secondary scorer than a true offensive engine — which we will touch on later.
In the query above, you may see guys such as Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard, and Klay Thompson, and that may excite you. However, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Tre Johnson is not the defender that those guys are/were. You will have outliers in any query you make, you just have to use your brain, look, and see what other factors are in play.
One & Done Freshman
My immediate thought after looking at that first query was how many freshmen who ended up being one-and-dones had that much usage and became primaries? Here is the list of the freshmen drafted top 10 who had a low 2PT%, and a considerably low rim volume (though I raised the rim volume to help Tre out).
One & Done DRAFTED TOP 10
Barttorvik.com
Not the best list here if I am being completely honest. Only 1 guy returning impactful value, Cade Cunningham, who so happened to be the 1st pick in the draft. The other guys.... yikes.
DRAFTED TOP 60 ONE AND DONE’S:
One & Done DRAFTED TOP 60
Barttorvik.com
Here is a friendlier query to look at. However, still not the most promising if you are looking to find your next contributor.
FTR + Usage
One of my biggest gripes about Tre Johnson (another one, I know) is that he doesn’t get to the FT line (26.5 FT rate — anything in the 20s is considered low). If Tre has the label of being “the best scorer in the draft”, I expect that means that he can generate points at the FT line. All of the best scorers in the NBA do it. From Jayson Tatum to Jokic to Shai to Embiid to Harden to Donovan Mitchell and others, they all can get free points at the rim. However, Tre Johnson does not. His slim frame, lack of burst & functional athleticism on top of the fact that he doesn’t go to the rim really make me concerned about him being a 1 or 2 option at the next level. He doesn’t throw his body into yours; he doesn’t get you with head fakes, and he struggles to switch up the pace at which he plays. To me, that screams like a guy you can figure out and guard easier than others.
FTR + Usage
Barttorvik.com
Here are freshmen who shared high usage rates along with a sub-30 % FT rate. The only primary player to be shown on the list is Stephen Curry, the greatest shooter of all time. However, there are some contributors, such as Jamal Murray, Miles Bridges, and that’s pretty much it. Another query that is not very promising if you’re wanting to draft Tre as “the guy”.
Last but not Least, the Defense:
Tre Johnson was just not a good enough defender at the college level, so I do not expect him to be a great defender at the next level. The measurables are nice and can give you some comfort if the Jazz decide to come away with Tre Johnson, but if he has a 6’10 wingspan and isn’t disrupting plays in college spacing, then that’s a red flag to me. As the post below states, he ball watches a ton, leading him to get back-cut a significant amount. His frame and build make it hard to fight through screens (similar to Cody Williams at Colorado), and despite having a high vertical leap in an open gym, he is not even close to a defensive athlete. His pop is not enough to contest shots at the basket — though he will get one every now and then — and his lateral movement isn’t quick enough to stay in front of his man.
One thing I found very interesting was that Tre Johnson only had 3 blocks recorded in his senior year of high school, via Link Academy’s website. I’ll let you decide for yourself on that one.
(The clips below are only from the first 2 months of the season)
For me to put Tre Johnson into T5 convos he has to show a consistent level of assertiveness on defense.
He ball watches often off ball. Over commits on the role man as a help defender a ton.
In man coverages he’s stiff and stands upright, which is why he gets blown by pic.twitter.com/BLY4qgORJ6
— JJ (@netsful) December 31, 2024
Scalability: What is his median outcome?
Utah Jazz v Sacramento Kings Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
If Tre Johnson isn’t a primary, that changes a whole lot for me, and like I said earlier, I don’t view him as one or a secondary. Tre Johnson can shoot it, and he can pass, but outside of that, I struggle to see how he can impact the game at a high level. His defensive contributions are 2 years away from being 2 years away, and it scares me for when we are competitive again. It reminds me of the Houston Rockets’ situation with Jalen Green. An electric scoring guard who can light it up in the regular season, but when the playoffs get going, teams are going to hunt you down, and if you have a bad shooting night and aren’t impacting the game then that is a player you don’t want on the court, and you would hope that your 5th overall pick can stay on the court. I am a believer in secondary ball handling, but if you are a scorer who stops the flow of the offense for a bad shot because they can’t get to the rim, then I wouldn’t want you on my team.
My median outcome for Tre Johnson is Utah Jazz legend, Rodney Hood. Tre Johnson has more notoriety and buzz around his name compared to Hood because of collegiate utilization and role, but once Tre gets to the NBA level, I would assume the level of impact is the same despite how many shots or points Tre Johnson puts up — I am not talking about box score stats, I'm talking about overall impact and playstyle.
New Tre Johnson comp just dropped.... Rodney Hood! Rodney Hood goes later than 14 in a 2014 re-draft.
(I am sure somebody else has already used this comp btw) pic.twitter.com/KiNDzVXFGQ
— Dray Mottishaw (@draymottishaw) June 7, 2025
I do believe that there is a world where Tre Johnson pops off. If he does, my NBA comparison would be Allan Houston.
I believe there are other guys in the draft that have already shown that they can be scalable and have a positive impact for WHEN WE DO GET THE GUY — and we will in due time. A swing sounds lovely, but if you look at the Utah Jazz roster right now, we need a player who is just good at basketball rather than a guy who might be good at basketball in a few years or really good in a few years. If you look at the 4 stars in the playoffs right now: Haliburton, Shai, JDub, and Siakam, they were drafted to be productive NBA players to fit a role, not to be a primary. They developed into primaries because they were already good at basketball. The league and fans get too caught up in Giannis’ projects that they forget there are good basketball players there for the taking. Jared McCain might have won Rookie of the Year this year if he hadn’t gotten injured, and he was a guy who was drafted to fit a role! Stop chasing swing picks and take GOOD PLAYERS!
If we do draft Tre Johnson, I will root for the kid. I hope he has a successful career despite what I think he’ll become. Again, nobody knows, and that is the fun of the draft. I would love to hear all of your opinions on who YOU want the Utah Jazz to take! It’s that time of year, baby!