The 49ers may have up to five rookie starters on defense this year. That carries a risk in the early season as the draft picks are tossed out of the nest and forced to fly. Some may struggle and consistency will be an issue.
There’s also a second risk, a more subtle one, apparent holes in the secondary that will need to be addressed by free agent signings or trades. It does not appear the Niners will act on that yet, they may wait to see the hand they’ve been dealt at mandatory minicamp over the next two days and then decide if additional moves are necessary.
Edge
The largest investment of the offseason was at edge with first round selection Mykel Williams and trade acquisition Bryce Huff. Williams adds the missing skill of setting the edge against the run, and the bonus of moving inside to rush the passer on 3rd downs. Huff is a designated pass rusher with proven success as a speed rusher in the Wide 9 under Robert Saleh in New York. In 2023, Huff had 10 sacks, 33 pressures, and 21 quarterback hits.
Given that the Niners were 27th in the league in 3rd down conversions against last year, Huff is a critical addition, and Williams gives them their best interior pass rusher in years. With more help along the defensive line Nick Bosa’s production should improve, provided the rotational depth can deliver and give him enough rest. Sam Okuayinonu flashed with great play in moments last year and needs to grow into a reliable contributor.
Defensive Tackle
Last year’s starting tandem was arguably the league’s worst, hence two early draft picks to replace them in Alfred Collins and C.J. West. Collins reaggravated a calf injury before the draft and has yet to practice. No word yet if he will participate at minicamp. West impressed at OTAs, particularly with his hand usage to shed blocks.
At least one of Jordan Elliott, Evan Anderson, or Kevin Givens will need to step up to spell the rookies. The Niners are heavily dependent on the rookies here, the depth is questionable.
Linebacker
Dre Greenlaw is in Denver, and it appears that Dee Winters will get the initial shot at replacing him. Winters is proven in pass coverage, it’s the run defense where he has to show his value. The Niners hedged their bets by drafting Nick Martin, the inverse of Winters, a proven run defender but iffy in coverage. If the Niners were sold on Winters, they wouldn’t have drafted Martin, which likely means Martin gets the job when he’s ready. I don’t think that will be to begin the year.
Some are sleeping on Curtis Robinson, who looked good until he got hurt early last year. He should be in the mix. After that, special teams guys provide depth.
It will be interesting to see how that sorts out for the final 53-man roster. Shanahan is not accustomed to clearing several roster spots for special-teams coverage guys, but Brant Boyer is. Will Shanahan make the room to give Boyer what he wants for coverage units? Or will Shanahan go with his usual roster numbers by position? Just putting this out there, the final 53 is going to be contentious.
Defensive Back
Renardo Green did not play well in OTAs. Sophomore slump incoming? It’s just OTAs, chill? The Niners need to come out of minicamp with an answer. Jaire Alexander is suddenly available, but he’s not consistently available to play, having appeared in just 14 games over the past two years. Jalen Ramsey in trade? He’s lost tread on his tires, I’d pass on him as well, so free agency. Rasul Douglas is rumored to be headed to the Rams eventually. Which leaves Asante Samuel. That’s who I would target and get. The rest of the DBs on the roster currently, we’ll see.
Upton Stout is small as a 5-8 nickel, but an interesting twist in this year’s draft, Robert Saleh didn’t just go for speed and length, he added power. Nick Martin led the LBs in bench reps at the Combine, and Upton Stout led the DBs in bench reps. I think that strength is going to prove to be important and may get Stout on the field sooner than expected.
Safety
The weakest position group on the team and a looming vulnerability if they do not address it. Malik Mustapha is injured and won’t likely be ready until mid-season. Even when he returns, there is no starting caliber free safety on this team. Ji’Ayir Brown has regressed and is more of a strong safety. Late draft pick Marques Sigle is hurt.
Two quality veteran safeties remain unsigned in free agency, Justin Simmons and Julian Blackmon, the Niners need to add one of them. Blackmon has seven picks in the last two years, 12 passes defensed, is 26 years old, he’s my first choice. Simmons is 31, but still highly productive, a 2nd team All-Pro and Pro Bowler in 2023. Five interceptions, 15 passes defensed.
Fail to sign either one, and perhaps they look to trade for Jalen Ramsey and play him at free safety. Otherwise, the starting safeties to open the season are Jason Pinnock and Richie Grant. This is why I picked Seattle to win the opener. The subpar safeties will be targeted, and in my view, burned. In the first half of the Niners schedule, seven of the eight opponents have strong-armed quarterbacks that can throw deep with accuracy. By the time Mustapha returns it can be too late.
A new starting free safety must be added. If that doesn’t happen, then we can conclude that the Yorks have reached their ceiling on roster spending this year, and we’ll see if the resulting hole at safety costs them a playoff spot.