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AI Image from Grok, I do not have the ability to grow a beard like that
I used to do this back in 2022 and it was a fun thing but I sort of dropped it and I haven’t come back to it and I want to change that by making some predictions again.
The idea of these is that I am going to give a range for what I think the likely hood of the outcome for something is, in general I want to try and make the prediction so that it is worded to be in the 51% and up to 100%, so for example instead of saying something will happen with a 20% certainty I would word that as something will NOT happen with 80% certainty.
I will look at trying to do this monthly, I will open up the comments so feel free to drop things you want me to give me thoughts on for future months.
Let’s lean heavy into the transfer related ones this month:
**High level transfer figures for Arsenal:**
Arsenal will have a positive Net Transfer Spend for the summer of 2025 window: 99%
Arsenal's gross transfer spending will be more than the €200m at the conclusion of the summer transfer window (using reported fees from transfermarkt.co.uk): 70%
Arsenal's reported transfer income will be more than €50m: 75%
Arsenal's reported transfer income will be less than €75m: 75%
Arsenal will make 3 signings with a fee of €50m or higher: 90%
I think it will be a pretty big summer from Arsenal with a net spend that pushes past the €150m mark.
**Individual Player Signing Predications:**
Arsenal will sign Matin Zubimendi: 95%
Matin Zubimendi will be part of Arsenal’s pre-season squad: 85%
Arsenal will **NOT** sign another midfielder: 65%
Arsenal will sign Benjamin Sesko: 70%
Arsenal will **NOT** sign Viktor Gyokeres: 75%
Arsenal will **NOT** sign Ollie Watkins: 85%
Arsenal will sign Rodrygo from Real Madrid: 55%
Arsenal sign TWO players that would be considered attackers (Strikers, Attacking Midfield or Wingers): 85%
Arsenal sign THREE players that would be considered attackers (Strikers, Attacking Midfield or Wingers): 55%
Arsenal sign FIVE or more first team players in the summer window: 65%
One of Trossard or Martinelli leaves by the end of the transfer window: 60%
I have pretty high confidence about Zubimendi and Sesko, outside of that my certainty drops quite a bit. Let me know for July if there are any particular players that I should add when we get there.
**Contract Renewals:**
Thomas Partey signs to a new contract by the start of the new season: 70%
William Saliba signs to a new contract by the start of the new season: 55%
William Saliba signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 80%
Bukayo Saka signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 65%
Bukayo Saka signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 95%
Myles Lewis-Skelly signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 80%
Myles Lewis-Skelly signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 95%
Ethan Nwaneri signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 60%
Ethan Nwaneri signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 90%
Contract renewals are a bit tough but I do think Arsenal will get most of these done, even if not all of them are by the start of the season.
**Club World Cup**
PSG Win the Club World Cup: 30% (it’s too hard to make this a 50% or more type)
A European Team wins the Club World Cup: 80%
That’s a good start for trying to get these updated, let me know what more you want to give my educated gut feel estimate on that is Soccer related.
These are the results from when I started but it is a good baseline to start off of.
I made 13 guesses that were 90%+, and all 13 happened. 100% overall
I made 7 guesses that were between 80% and 89%, and 5 happened. 71% overall
I made 10 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 67 happened. 70% overall
I made 15 guesses that were between 60% and 69%, and 10 happened. 67% overall
I made 10 guesses that were between 51% and 59%, and 5 happened. 50% overall
Overall before I stopped doing this I had made 55guesses, with 40 happening as I predicted. The average odds I have given these guesses is 72% and I have been right 73% of the time.
My calibration on my guesses before I stopped turned out to be pretty good, hopefully I can keep it going.