Newcastle United and the Saudi Public Investment Fund know that in the Premier League, if you don’t have a seat at the big stadium table, you’re probably on the menu.
PIF were under no illusions when they bought Newcastle United in October 2021 about what was required to compete among football finance’s elite.
Unlike Man City’s takeover by an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund a decade earlier, there would be no speedy boarding to the Premier League’s business class. Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), which limit the financial losses that PIF can underwrite to £105m over three seasons, would make sure of that.
Instead, the Saudis knew that to see the Magpies fly, they would need to invest for the long term.
That means player trading, a sophisticated commercial strategy and upgrading both digital and physical infrastructure. And in that last category, Newcastle fans are starting to see plans accelerate.
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As well as promises for a best-in-class new training complex, PIF have committed to building Newcastle a new stadium or carrying out a sweeping revamp of St James’ Park, the club’s home since 1892.
Increasingly, it looks like the Tynesiders will be moving out of St James’ Park, albeit to a site directly next door to the existing stadium at Leazes Park. Initially, a 65,000-seater stadium was mooted, but reports today suggest that the new-build could actually accommodate up to 70,000 fans.
That would be an increase of 18,000 on St James’ Park. It would also make it the Premier League’s second biggest stadium as it stands, though several clubs are also currently considering expansions that mean it is a fluid picture.
Updated chart showing the matchday incomes and stadium capacities of top English clubs
Matchday income and stadium capacities chart Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media
How lucrative might that be for Newcastle and, crucially, what difference might it make to the sums on their PSR ledger? Well, a crude pro-rata calculation based on their 2023-24 matchday income of £50m suggests that – if they have the same number and calibre of home matches as they did last season – the club will earn £67.3m through the turnstiles annually.
In reality, however, the final figure would be higher – potentially by quite a margin.
Newcastle would make outsized returns from hospitality and premium seating, with other non-ticketing streams also rising sharply thanks to the mix of behavioural science, data analytics, branding, and design psychology that shapes modern stadiums into high-performing commercial environments.
General admission prices at St James’ Park are already rising as Eddie Howe’s side have continued to perform on the pitch. A shiny new stadium would, in PIF’s view, justify even more expensive tickets.
Chart showing Newcastle United matchday income over the years
Newcastle matchday income graph Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media
The balance, of course, will be marrying the need for increased commercial and matchday income with the interests of bedrock fans, those who create the atmosphere and give the club its identity.
If the aim is to generate as much revenue as possible without disproportionately impacting the everyday supporter, then the latest movements of decision makers in the city bode well.
Newcastle United chiefs seeking private investment as plans for stadium-centred redevelopment accelerate
In America, there has been a pivot towards stadium designs which put the structure itself in the middle of a much larger, often much more lucrative complex.
That trend is now sweeping English football too. Manchester United, Birmingham City, Leeds United and Everton all want their new stadiums to be part of a bigger urban development.
In Newcastle’s case, land is more limited, though they will presumably have the footprint of St James’ Park to work within once they move into what looks likely to be a 70,000-seater stadium right on its doorstep.
And, per the Financial Times, this is exactly how the club is pitching the plans for the new stadium.
According to that outlet, St James’ Park 2.0 has been framed as a catalyst for urban regeneration at this year’s MIPIM festival in Cannes, an event widely considered one of the most salubrious in global real estate.
That likely means that, as well as the stadium itself, when the announcement of the new stadium does finally come, Newcastle fans can expect to see renderings of a mixed-use commercial and residential space too, which might include offices, apartments, shops and leisure areas.
Other clubs have made the case for public funds to be used towards their stadium redevelopment sites, using the wider site as a business case for economic growth.
Could Yasir Al-Rumayyan make a similar proposal? “A football stadium is a standalone project isn’t a good idea,” says University of Liverpool football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire, speaking exclusively to TBR Football.
“Realistically it will only be open 25-30 days per year, unlike a retail shop which is open 365 days per year. That significantly restricts revenue generating opportunities.
“Having a new stadium for Newcastle as a hub for a broader retail, office, leisure development and so on can be beneficial because the stadium acts as a lightning rod for attention. You’re tying in tourism and hospitality – it’s a bigger base for supporting activities for the football club. That helps bring revenue to that part of the city.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
“If there needs to be substantial investment in infrastructure and transport, that’s spread across more than the football club.
“We have seen the benefits that this Abu Dhabi investment has seen in east Manchester with the Co-op Live Arena.
“There are opportunities for job creation and enhancing the reputation of the city. All of that can be accelerated if the club is part of a broader project.”