Liverpool’s business this summer has been loud and, in the eyes of many observers, out of character for an FSG ownership regime routinely characterised as conservative, methodical and value-driven.
In reality, however, the last few weeks and months have been peak Fenway Sports Group. Their blitzkrieg in the transfer market is the result of years of planning and a data-led risk-benefit analysis.
Liverpool are spending so much because A) they have PSR headspace to rival any club in the Premier League, B) they are supremely confident in their recruitment department, and C) FSG have grown core revenue to such an extent that, even after 15 years on Merseyside, they still don’t need to use their own cash reserves.
If they do go onto sign Alexander Isak before 1 September, it will be entirely within their means. Even without the player sales that they are lining up, they could afford the Swede without Richard Hughes and Michael Edwards going cap in hand to John Henry at FSG HQ.
Chart showing Liverpool revenue vs squad cost, which is made up wages plus amortisation, with TBR Football
Liverpool squad cost vs revenue Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media
Since buying the club, Fenway have overseen a boom in revenue, from £185m in 2009-10 to somewhere in the region of £700m in the title-winning 2024-25 campaign. The alchemy of FSG is that they have been able to do so without any investment from the owners whatsoever besides in infrastructure.
Their cost control meanwhile has been peerless. While others around them have lost their heads in football’s dizzying wage and transfer space race, Liverpool’s owners have struck the perfect balance between ambition and restraint, winning nine pieces of silverware along the way, all while competing with clubs owned by the world’s richest private equity firms and Gulf state sovereign wealth funds.
Major Trophy Season
League Cup 2023-24, 2021-22, 2011-12
FA Cup 2021-22, 2011-12
Champions League 2018-19
Premier League 2024-25, 2019-20
Club World Cup 2019
FSG trophies under FSG
There have been mistakes, of course. Big ones. Project Big Picture, the European Super League, walkout-triggering ticket price rises. But those were – for want of a better expression – moral failings. With FSG, it has never been an issue of competence.
The Boston-based party aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but they are, probably, the sharpest elite club owners in the world.
So, when someone from FSG speaks about the future of football finance, you sit up and listen.
Billy Hogan predicts move to new Premier League broadcast model
While Liverpool have enjoyed outsized commercial and matchday income growth under FSG’s leadership, TV money is where the real treasure has been buried.
Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, Liverpool’s annual media revenue has risen from £3m to probably around £275m last season. Sky Sports have embedded themselves in the architecture of the sport itself, underpinning a revenue stream worth £12.25bn to clubs in the current rights cycle.
Chart showing Liverpool's media income since the inception of the Premier League
Liverpool media income chart Credit: Adam Williams/TBR Football/GRV Media
In total, Liverpool’s accounts since 1992 reflect media revenue of £2.9bn. When their latest financial statements are released, they will break the £3bn barrier. Most of that has come direct from Sky Sports, via the Premier League.
It sounds like a pretty cushty deal: the Premier League sell their IP to the broadcasters, who more or less take care of the rest, marketing the ‘product’ and getting billions of eyeballs on clubs’ ‘brands’. It’s easy. It’s risk-free. It’s extraordinarily lucrative. Sky’s whole business model is built on their Premier League offering, so they continue to relent to its financial demands.
And yet, there is belief at the offices of some Premier League clubs that they are underselling themselves.
Liverpool CEO Billy Hogan addresses press conference
Photo by Nikki Dyer – LFC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images
Domestically, the value of the TV deal has slowed. On a per-game basis, the current agreement is worth less than the previous one. Internationally, it is still flying, but a view exists that inertia is holding Liverpool and their peers back from unlocking the next massive revenue panacea.
An in-house streaming service, or at least a move towards an outsourced Netflix-style model, is therefore often mooted as the next big thing. And Liverpool CEO Billy Hogan has now suggested that the move in this direction is inevitable.
“From our perspective, ultimately the Premier League controls all the broadcast rights,” he told Bloomberg.
“Look, we’re in an evolving media market, clearly. We’ll see that over the course of the next decade or so as the media continues to shift from what was previously linear to now more of a streaming concept.”
Expert’s view: Liverpool insulated from risks of streaming business
As mentioned, the reason Liverpool and their contemporaries in the Premier League appear in no rush to move to a direct-to-consumer or over-the-top streaming service is because there
“The real risk is that they don’t have the expertise to pull it off, although I think those are probably overstated because you just hire third parties to do that for you,” University of Liverpool football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire says in exclusive conversation with TBR Football.
“At present, Sky Sports do all the donkey work for you. They have cameras, the production team and so on. The other risk is that expectations are overstated in terms of the numbers being generated by a streaming service.
“At the moment, owners have certainty in terms of how much money is coming in, but some people argue that the Premier League is selling itself short.
“The alternative is taking a gamble on a streaming service. That gives you volatility, and business investors like FSG don’t like volatility. For a brand like Liverpool, I don’t think that volatility is an issue, however. The degree of brand loyalty that fans have for their clubs is unmatched.”
Limited matchday income growth may lead Liverpool to lobby for change at Premier League HQ
“Media in its present form has probably reached a plateau,” says Maguire.
“Matchday income is limited by the number of matches, multiplied by the capacity of the ground, multiplied by average ticket price.
“In terms of the number of matches, it’s difficult to squeeze anymore into the calendar. You have the Club World Cup and the expanded Champions League – and they would ideally like six home matches in the league phase. There’s limited scope for that.
A general exterior view of Anfield, Liverpool's stadium
Photo by Alex Livesey – The FA/The FA via Getty Images
“They can’t extend Anfield further. Therefore, it comes down to price per ticket. In an ideal world, and we saw this in Project Big Picture and Super League, they want a 16 or 18-team Premier League.
“In FSG’s minds, a home match against Crystal Palace or Bournemouth is wasted money because you can’t charge premium prices. They would certainly like to scrap the League Cup.”