If you’ve ever talked about the Utah Jazz with your family, buddies at work, or your fellow Jazz fans online, you may have been caught up in conversations/debates that may have looked like: “___ is better than ___”. While those conversations are natural when discussing your favorite team, bias tends to creep in. What if we could just cut the theoreticals & bias and just focus on the historical stats and nature of development based on where the Utah Jazz’s young core is now? How do we do that? While there are many statistics to use nowadays, I am going to be using one of my favorite ones, EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus).
What is EPM?
Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) is a statistic that measures a player’s overall impact on the game. It looks at how much a player helps or hurts their team when they’re on the court, based on the score difference while accounting for things like teammates, opponents, and game situations. It is a catch-all player metric that predicts a player’s contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions.
EPM has evolved into a predictive tool powered by a machine learned system that estimates a player’s true skill level at any given time. These projections filter out randomness to reflect actual ability, updating game by game with fresh data. They take into account factors like age, recent trends, team changes, and opponent quality to predict how a player is likely to perform, with historical data going back to the 2001-02 season.
With all of the context included, I believe that it is a great statistic to use when evaluating players.
EPM typically ranges from negative to positive (negative = less impactful player, while positive = impactful player). For instance, this year’s highest EPM leader was Nikola Jokic at +8.1, and then the lowest rated player was Cody Williams at -6.3.
YOU CAN FIND EPM HERE —>dunksandthrees.com
FUN FACT: EPM was created by a former member and Lead Basketball Analyst of the Utah Jazz’s Analytics Team!
What I have done: First Three Years
Typically, the first 3 years of a player’s career can tell you if they are an impactful role player or a negative impact bench player that will be jumping around from team to team, year by year. So, what I have done is go through every single player that has come through the league since the 2001-02 season (drafted in the 2001 class) and sorted them by who became role players, and then who exceeded role player status and became an all-star (even a 1x all-star)
But how do we define what a role player is? I have defined an NBA role player as someone who has played at least 20 minutes per game for 5+ years.
Hopefully that makes sense. Just a reminder that there are outliers, and somebody that you yourself would consider a role player might not hit that threshold at all, but might have had 1 or 2 good years, and then the rest of their career was not impactful whatsoever. No queries are 100% sound.
A guy like Chris Andersen wouldn’t meet this standard of a “role player” because, despite having a 15-year career, he only hit 20mpg in 3 of those years. However, one could argue that he might not have been impactful enough to be a legitimate role player. I also believe that 20mpg is a fine number to have because some teams prioritize high picks even if they become nothing. For example, Derrick Williams was the 2nd overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft and had 3 years over 20mpg, and 3 more years averaging 15+ mpg, but ultimately, he didn’t amount to anything in the NBA. So, I have to account for team buy-in just because they were a high pick in the draft. Another example could be Jordan Hill (8th overall pick). There are always gray areas.
Back to what I was saying, in addition to separating who became role players and who didn’t, I looked at the EPM trends of each one of those players, separated them from negative EPM to positive EPM, and then took it a step further, separating them into categories. I’ll just show you:
FULL SPREADSHEET HERE: MY DATA <—
Dray Mottishaw
In the picture above, is a cumulative data set for players in their first year (rookie seasons from 2001-02 season to 2017-18 season) and the % of how many players who became role players and the % of how many players who became an all-star IN THEIR CATEGORY.
Why did I stop at the 2017-18 season? Because there is still a chance that more players might get a season with 20mpg, which could push them over the threshold.
Jazz Time: Where are the Jazz’s kids at now?
Last Season Rookies:
Portland Trail Blazers v Utah Jazz Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
KYLE FILIPOWSKI • EPM: -1.3
Kyle Filipowski was by far our best rookie, according to EPM (and my own eyes). Currently sitting at an EPM rating of -1.3, he is actually our best-established (ones that have played) young player outside of Walker Kessler.
I have talked about “Flip” many times, but his ability to dribble, pass, and shoot at his size is incredible, and something the Utah Jazz should not overlook.
Diving into the analytics more, Kyle Filipowski is in an EPM category (-1.0 to -1.9 EPM) that only 19.8% of rookies get into — it is the 3rd most common spot for players to land, which is decent. According to my study, Kyle Filipowski has a 38.9% chance of becoming an NBA role player and an 8.9% chance of becoming an all-star.
Comparison Trends:
Kyle Filipowski has been compared to numerous amounts of guys: Kelly Olynyk, Boris Diaw, Domantas Sabonis, and Mo Wagner being the prototypical names. Here are two EPM trend charts (age graph vs career game graph) to show where Kyle lies among these names:
(Look for the dot; the line cuts off slightly before. I am not sure why)
AGE EPM CHART
dunksandthrees.com
Kyle Filipowski is off to a great start for his early career, on par with Sabonis and ahead of everyone else when it comes to age.
CAREER GAME EPM CHART
dunksandthrees.com
As for career games, it seems Kyle Filipowski is still on pace with Sabonis, but also looks to be near Kelly Olynyk. In my opinion, this is great for Flip. Each one of these guys has had a decent career and has played for quite some time. I also compared Kyle to NBA All-Star David Lee, and Filipowski is ahead when it comes to age.
Kyle Filipowski has a great future lined up for himself if the development continues to be linear over time.
Utah Jazz v Atlanta Hawks Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images
ISAIAH COLLIER • EPM: -3.1
Despite breaking the Utah Jazz’s rookie assist record in a single season, Isaiah Collier’s impact was still pretty negative. It is normal to be negative as a rookie — 94% of rookies are negative. As for Collier’s category/zone (-3.0 to -3.9 EPM), 22.73% of rookies land here, as it is the 2nd most common spot for rookies to land. The downside of that is that the hit rate is not great at all.
According to my study, Collier has a 15.9% chance of becoming a role player and a 3.1% chance of becoming an all-star based on his first year and other players’ first year in the league.
Collier is an interesting player. While he is fast and can rack up assists left and right, he struggles to find ways to impact the game. He is a guard who can’t shoot the basketball outside of 5 feet, can’t fly above the rim, doesn’t defend well, and is turnover prone. I struggle to see a path for him in the long run.
Comparison Trends:
Collier is usually compared to Tre Jones, Raymond Felton, Russell Westbrook, and Baron Davis. Here are two EPM trend charts (age graph vs career game graph) to show where Isaiah lies among these names:
(Look for the dot; the line cuts off slightly before. I am not sure why)
AGE EPM CHART
dunksandthrees.com
Baron Davis was drafted in 1999, so he has 2 seasons cut off, but hopefully Collier can get there. Obviously, Zay is not Westbrook.
CAREER GAME EPM CHART
dunksandthrees.com
This career game chart gives us an idea of how Collier stacks up among the listed names. He is on pace with Tre Jones, who hasn’t amounted to anything more than being a bench PG. Unfortunately, Collier is not in the realm of Westbrook and Baron Davis, nor is he close to what Raymond Felton was as a rookie, which was just average.
Hopefully, Isaiah Collier can be a statistical outlier, but I am not too optimistic.
Boston Celtics v Utah Jazz Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
CODY WILLIAMS • EPM: -6.3
We all know that Cody had a very bad season, it’s not a secret, but did you know that Cody Williams had the 2nd worst EPM for a rookie in the past 25 seasons? Here’s a list of the 5 players with the worst rookie EPM since 2001-02:
Nathan Mensah (2023) -7.0 and 12.2 mpg — 25 games
- Cody Williams (2024) - 6.3 and 21.2 mpg — 50 games
- Blake Wesley (2022) -6.2 and 18.1 mpg — 37 games
- Maxwell Lewis (2023) -5.8 and 3.0 mpg — 34 games
- Avery Bradley (2010) -5.8 and 5.8 mpg — 31 games
If you look at the games played and minutes per game, one could argue that Cody Williams had the worst rookie season in the past 25+ years.
Cody Williams would be the first player ever with an EPM under -6 to become a role player.
Now, I am not even going to bother comparing him to anyone else because we know what it will look like, but I am kind of sick and tired of the whole “He just needs to put on weight” gimmick that everyone has been talking about. There have been plenty of NBA players whose bodies did not look physically capable of competing at the next level: Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Chet Holmgren, Chris Bosh, Tayshaun Prince, Reggie Miller, Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton, Rip Hamilton, Latrell Sprewell, and more. Those guys came into the league skinny (still needed to put on weight) and still found a way to impact basketball games.
I have been watching Cody Williams for a long time now, and he has been invisible at almost every level he has played. FIBAU19 tournaments, college, NBA, etc, it’s not been pretty for him. People have made the weight excuse for other players as well: Sekou Doumbouya, Terrence Furguson, Ziaire Williams, James Young, Anthony Randolph, Josh Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Tyrus Thomas, and more. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, then it might be a duck.
Now, for the Jazz’s sake, hopefully Cody Williams becomes something in the long run.
Last Year’s Sophomores:
Year 2 Role Player Chart
Dray Mottishaw
This is my “Year 2 EPM category/zone hit rate” data sheet.
BTW, I AM NOT DOING TAYLOR HENDRICKS BECAUSE HE HAS SUCH A LOW SAMPLE SIZE!
Utah Jazz v Minnesota Timberwolves Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
KEYONTE GEORGE • Y1 EPM: -3.3 • Y2 EPM: -3.0
Keyonte George has had plenty of ups and downs in his first 2 years in the NBA. He has been labeled as an inefficient shot chucker who is one of the worst defenders in the league — that is not a good reputation to have just 2 years in. Keyonte George is still sitting at a 16% chance of becoming a role player, but his all-star chances have dwindled to around ~2.3%.
There is speculation about whether he will still be coming off the bench or if he will take the starting spot and play next to Lauri and Walker Kessler. My assumption is that he will be starting for us next year. Keyonte has had a usage increase, and 17ppg looks nice on paper, but the inefficiency is a huge problem. This is Keyonte’s 3rd year (including college), where he has averaged a FG% under 40%!!! NOT GOOD! I get scoring guards are the hype nowadays, but if you give up more points than you score, and you can’t even score efficiently, then you’re not an impactful player in my book.
Comparison Trends:
Key often gets compared to Anfernee Simons, Jamal Murray, CJ McCollum, and Cole Anthony. Here are two EPM trend charts (age graph vs career game graph) to show where Key lies among these names:
(Look for the dot; the line cuts off slightly before. I am not sure why)
AGE EPM CHART
dunksandthrees.com
According to the age chart, Keyonte George is right in the middle of where Cole Anthony and Anfernee Simons were. CJ McCollum was drafted older, and Keyonte George is on pace to meet that line. However, he would have to peak the same way.
Career Game Chart
dunksandthrees.com
When it comes to games played, Key is closer to the bottom. Being worse than Cole Anthony and better than Anfernee Simons is not a good player. If Key is entering year 3 and the expectation is for him to become “Anfernee Simons”, then is that a player we should be buying into at all? Just food for thought.
Portland Trail Blazers v Utah Jazz Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
BRICE SENSABAUGH • Y1 EPM: -2.9 • Y2 EPM: -2.4
Brice Sensabaugh is in the zone that is most common for 2nd year players. A really efficient 2nd year in the NBA where he averaged 10.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on 46/42/89 shooting splits. I am optimistic about Brice, as he has an 18.3% chance of becoming a role player, and about a 2% chance of becoming an all-star (averaging out his 2-year EPM data sets). If there is a player who I think could break out next year, it would be him. With his efficiency and ability to put the ball on the ground when needed, I believe he could become a rotation piece in the future.
Comparison Trends:
Brice Sensabaugh often gets compared to Cam Thomas, Georges Niang, E’Twaun Moore, and (for fun) James Harden. Here are two EPM trend charts (age graph vs career game graph) to show where Brice lies among these names:
(Look for the dot; the line cuts off slightly before. I am not sure why)
AGE Chart
dunksandthrees.com
Brice Sensabaugh is right on par with Cam Thomas. Could we have a hidden microwave scorer on our team? If Summer League was just a taste, I want the whole load (iykyk).
Career Game Chart
dunksandthrees.com
Brice Sensabaugh is in the mix with everybody outside of Harden (duh). All of those guys became borderline rotation players for many years, and if Brice becomes Cam Thomas 2.0, we could have a 6MOY candidate on our hands in the years to come!
The Young Vet: Walker Kessler
Minnesota Timberwolves v Utah Jazz Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
WALKER KESSLER • Y1 EPM: +1.8 • Y2 EPM: -1.5 • Y3 EPM: +0.6
I’ll just say it like it is... Walker Kessler is really freaking good. He started out in a category that had a 52.6% chance of becoming an all-star, had a sophomore slump, and that all-star percentage dropped down to 4.9%, and now he is back up into the positive with an all-star percentage of 15.8%. Those average out at a 24.4% chance of becoming an all-star, and at this rate, it’s guaranteed he will be a long-time role player/starter barring anything crazy.
Walker Kessler is our best young player at the moment * ***pretends to be shocked*,***and I am curious as to what his development looks like from here. He is 24 years old, he has been top 5 in blocks per game every year he has been in the league, and he averaged a double-double last year. The biggest questions surrounding him right now are: “How much is he going to sign for?” and “How close are the negotiations to being done?”. As you may know, Walker Kessler is extension-eligible, and it has been nothing but crickets. Hopefully, they get a deal done shortly so I can talk about it with all of you.
Comparison Trends:
Walker Kessler has been compared to Tyson Chandler, Rudy Gobert, Ivica Zubac, and Jarrett Allen. Here are two EPM trend charts (age graph vs career game graph) to show where Walk lies among these names:
(Look for the dot; the line cuts off slightly before. I am not sure why)
AGE EPM CHART
dunksandthrees.com
Even with Walker’s sophomore slump, he is right back in the mix of names. He seems to be closest to Tyson Chandler at the moment when it comes to age-based EPM ratings.
Career Game EPM
dunksandthrees.com
I had to put an arrow on where Kessler was because it’s so crowded, but Walker Kessler is still firmly in the mix with Tyson Chandler and Zubac. If Walker Kessler can be a dominant rim protector who catches lobs and rebounds, then he is going to find success like each one of these guys has had. I am super excited to see what he looks like once we get a good guard around him who can run the pick-and-roll, which may have been part of the reason why Walker Kessler found early success in his career!
Final Verdict: Who Would I Play?
I think each one of these players has had a unique path so far, and they are still so young, but the players I would prioritize are: Kyle Filipowski, Walker Kessler, and Brice Sensabaugh. If you give me a lineup this next year that looks like:
PG: Walter Clayton Jr.
SG: Brice Sensabaugh
SF: Ace Bailey
PF: Kyle Filipowski
C: Walker Kessler
(Yes, I would trade Lauri)
I would be a happy man. There is so much to learn about every single one of our young guys, especially the new bloods, and I could not be more excited. The NBA season is 2.5 months away, which leaves us with a lot to think about!
I hope you guys enjoyed the analytics, and I suggest all of you go check out dunksandthrees.com! They do a great job over there.