The early odds are stacked against Leeds United heading into the 2025/26 Premier League season.
Jamie Carragher admits it’s been ‘really tough’ for recently promoted clubs to break into the established 17-team Premier League group.
Leeds United are one of three teams hoping to break a concerning recent trend in the Premier League, with all of the last six newly-promoted sides across two years going straight back down. Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton pipped the Whites to promotion during the 2023/24 campaign but all three went down with a whimper, recording just 12 wins between them.
Daniel Farke’s side registered 100 points on their way to the Championship title and the feeling around Elland Road so far is that recruitment has been solid, even if lacking a couple of star additions. Lucas Perri, Jaka Bijol and Anton Stach are considered serious ceiling-raisers while marquee signings further forward will only improve Leeds’ chances.
The chasm between second-tier and Premier League is bigger than ever, however, with the established 17 all having at least three years of top-flight revenue to work with. It’s going to be a massive challenge for all of Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley but Carragher hopes for a more competitive campaign at the bottom of the table.
“For the last couple of years, the teams coming into the Premier League have found it really tough,” the former Liverpool captain told The Overlap Fan Debate. “It almost felt to me like a 17-team Premier League, that’s what it sort of felt like. I think it’s really important for the league that the teams who come up make a good go of it and are really competitive.”
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Who could Leeds United finish above to survive?
The simple fact is Leeds must be above at least one established Premier League side come May, and it could well be two if Sunderland’s aggressive transfer window translates on the pitch. And while the newly-promoted trio are early favourites to go down, issues are beginning to appear elsewhere.
Few can predict how Brentford will fare this season, their first in the Premier League without impressive manager Thomas Frank. Rookie replacement Keith Andrews has never been a head coach before and has top-scoring winger Bryan Mbuemo to Manchester United, while Yoane Wissa is a target for Newcastle United.
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Similarly, Wolves have lost their two best players in Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, having floated dangerously close to the bottom three for large parts of last season. West Ham have also struggled in recent years, sold Mohammed Kudus and are yet to reinvest that money effectively.
Everton manager David Moyes has recently admitted his side aren’t ready for the Premier League yet but the expectation is they will be able to pull away from serious danger, with the freedom to spend after years of tight financial constraints. They are closing in on a deal for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and are also thought to be keen on Southampton star Tyler Dibling.
There may also be a surprise package or two emerge throughout the campaign but Leeds remain among the favourites to go down, even after a decent transfer window. Time will tell if they can beat the odds.
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