Leeds United aren’t totally fancied for survival this summer, as is the current norm for clubs promoted into the Premier League from the Championship.
The 49ers have overseen promotion back to the Premier League this year, but find themselves tussling in a division that has changed drastically since United were last in it.
Six promoted sides have dropped straight back down and the 17 sides that have stayed in the top flight in the meantime have only got stronger as a result, making it even tougher for Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley.
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Opta make opening Premier League table predictions – Leeds United and Sunderland chances assessed
Predictions for the upcoming season are being made left, right and centre as the Premier League campaign nears in less than two weeks’ time.
Opta Analyst’s ‘Supercomputer’ verdict for the 25/26 season makes for unsurprising reading, expecting Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley to be the three facing a return to the Championship:
“The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.”
As shown above, Leeds have a combined 48% chance of finishing in the bottom three, while the Black Cats are said to have a 66.4% chance.
What is not taken into account is the quality of both Sunderland and Leeds’ window thus far, which should see them have a greater chance of survival than Burnley, who have lost multiple key players that were integral to their rock solid defence that likely weighs significantly into their better survival probability in this model.
Leeds United can only be judged once they have concluded their attacking business
This model is basing the predictions off last season’s performances, which rightly have Sunderland nowhere near Premier League level, as they were miles off the pace set by Leeds and Burnley, but that won’t be the case this season, based on their investment already.
As brutal as it sounds, most sensible Leeds and Sunderland fans would agree that the current squads both clubs have would be relegated this season.
However, both have vital business to attend to before the deadline passes, and that could have a real bearing on their chances.
Sunderland badly need to address their defence further while Leeds badly need to address their attack, but doing so would make both much more competitive than this model suggests.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!