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As the 2025/26 Premier League season approaches, Arsenal enter a decisive stage in Mikel Arteta’s project.
According to Opta’s Supercomputer, which simulates the league campaign 10,000 times using historical and recent performance data, the Gunners have a 24.3% chance of winning their first title since 2004, the strongest projection of Arteta’s tenure.
For the fourth season running, however, Arsenal are still tipped to finish runners-up. Liverpool are favourites to defend their crown with a 28.5% title probability and an average of 73.2 points. Arsenal follow closely on 71.9 points, ahead of Manchester City (69.9 points, 16.7% chance), Chelsea (63.7 points, 4.1%) and Manchester United (49.1 points, 0.8%).
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The figures reflect Arsenal’s steady rise under Arteta, with their title probability almost doubling from last year’s pre-season forecast of 12.2%. The Gunners are expected to finish in the top two 61% of the time and secure Champions League qualification in 68.5% of simulations. But their most likely outcome, another second-place finish highlights how narrow the margins remain at the top.
Arsenal’s summer transfer business directly targeted weaknesses that cost them crucial points last season. The arrival of Viktor Gyokeres from Sporting CP adds a prolific striker to complement Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, while Riccardo Calafiori reinforces a defence anchored by William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães. These moves have increased Arsenal’s scoring potential and squad depth, key factors in Opta’s improved projection.
𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 2025-26 📈
The 2025-26 Premier League season begins next week, but who will be crowned champions this time around?
The Opta supercomputer is predicting a titanic tussle at the top… pic.twitter.com/weYmEQBhUx
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 6, 2025
The Gunners finished the 2024/25 season with 89 points, just two behind Liverpool, showcasing both promise and frustration. Highlights included a 5–1 thrashing of Manchester City at the Emirates and a resilient 2–2 draw at Anfield. However, costly setbacks including defeats to West Ham and Bournemouth showed a tendency to falter at decisive moments, a pattern Arteta must reverse.
Liverpool’s recruitment of Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike and Jeremie Frimpong bolsters their attack but leaves defensive vulnerabilities. Manchester City face uncertainty amid speculation Pep Guardiola could leave at season’s end. Chelsea and Manchester United are improving under Enzo Maresca and Ruben Amorim respectively, but remain outsiders.
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Arteta’s side open the campaign with a daunting run of fixtures against Manchester United, Leeds, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and City in their first five games, a period that could define their season. A strong start may help Arsenal convert Opta’s numbers into reality; early stumbles could reinforce their label as perennial runners-up.
After climbing from a 0.13% title probability in 2022/23 to 24.3% this year, Arsenal’s trajectory under Arteta is undeniable. But after three straight second-place finishes, fans are desperate for more than progress. With a robust squad, improved attacking options and a manager entering his sixth year, the Gunners have their best shot yet at ending a 21-year title drought.
Whether they can overcome Liverpool’s edge and their own history of late-season slips will define the Premier League’s tightest title race in years.
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