All aboard as Ozzy Osbourne once screamed. This time it’s the Nicolas Jackson train and it’s leaving soon.
Newcastle United have been left scrambling for two strikers and have yet to make a major breakthrough. From Joao Pedro, to Hugo Ekitike, to Yoane Wissa, to Benjamin Sesko. Bids have been made. Deals have been close, but no major breakthrough has been made. We have been left embarrassed on social media, as ‘rejections’ pile up.
It can be argued that none of these players have ‘rejected’ Newcastle per se. More likely explanations are that better offers were received and they’ve taken them. It is difficult to compete against the top six clubs, as we have found out time and time again.
The next rumoured name on the agenda is Nicolas Jackson and this is a link I can fully get behind. In an earlier piece for the blog this summer, I speculated that the Senegal international could be a perfect long-term replacement for Alexander Isak.
“There is no doubting that the Senegalese striker is raw and needs to be developed further. However, he could be the perfect long-term replacement for Isak should the Swede ever leave the club. If he ever becomes available, we should be all over it.”
These were words I wrote way back in June. This article hyping up the Jackson link is far from ‘cope’, rather it is a genuine belief that he could be the perfect signing for us this summer.
Stylistically, he is most similar to Isak according to fbref’s comparison tools. That would suggest that he would suit our system perfectly and for that reason, it isn’t surprising that his name is on our list of potential replacements for Isak.
Now, I can accept it is a downgrade. I can understand why some may be unmoved by the link. Isak is arguably the best striker in the world and he guarantees’ 20+ league goals per season. Jackson doesn’t bring the same guarantees. He is raw in the final third and can be wasteful in front of goal.
That all being said, nearly every player in world football would be a downgrade on Isak. Jackson is a good stylistic fit and he has shown that he can lead the line for a team that has finished in the top six of the Premier League in successive seasons. He is far from the meme that he is portrayed as online.
If we were signing a player with a similar profile from Milan, Dortmund or Bilbao, there would be lots of excitement about the link. Unfortunately for Jackson, we have been exposed to his flaws. Plenty of players have been turned into caricatures in England, influenced by the media and ‘Football Twitter’. Every miss is highlighted and confirmation bias takes hold.
Is Nicolas Jackson an inconsistent finisher? Yes. Is he as bad as he is portrayed? Nowhere near.
In the previous Premier League season, Jackson averaged 0.5 xG (expected goals) and 3.08 shots per ninety minutes. These rank in the 81st and 78th percentiles respectively. These are promising numbers and the right coach can hone the striker’s instincts in front of goal.
The Senegal international has scored 24 goals across his two seasons in England. In addition to these, he has contributed 10 assists. These are not bad numbers. As an average, he has a goal involvement every 147.6 minutes. With further coaching, he could improve on this further.
A lot of Chelsea supporters believe they have been a better side with Jackson than without. He adds to the output of Cole Palmer with his selfless running, both behind to create space and when the team doesn’t have the ball to press.
The transfer fee has been rumoured to be as much as £80-100 million, but these are pie in the sky numbers. Chelsea will know that they will get nowhere near this amount. They have already briefed that he is available and the transfer fees of Hugo Ekitike and Benjamin Sesko feel fairer barometers.
If we manage to get a deal agreed for Jackson for a fee around £55-60 million, it could prove to be a very smart deal. Many will disagree with me and there are valid reasons to.
However, this writer will be at the front of the Nicolas Jackson train. There is plenty of room for you too.
Stats taken from fbref (powered by Opta)