Greg Olsen knows one thing about the NFL: “It’s not going to stop growing.”
So when the Fox Sports NFL analyst looks out onto the horizon and imagines the future of the league, he sees an 18-game schedule driven by an expanded international package of games as “inevitable.”
Olsen believes that by the time of the next NFL broadcast rights package in 2029, each team will be playing at least one game overseas. And as a result, the NFL will be playing an 18-game season.
“I think it’s inevitable,” Olsen said this week on The Sports Media Podcast. “I think as the league continues to grow, obviously there’s the international package that’s still kind of lingering out there. I don’t think we’re very far from every team playing one of their games internationally, building an entire new window.”
For years, media analysts have expected the next growth opportunity for the NFL to come with a 9 a.m. EST international window for games played overseas. In recent years, the NFL has played in England, Germany, and Brazil as part of its International Series. This fall, it will play in Spain.
There should be a massive appetite for these live game rights, given digital broadcasters’ desire for global audiences. As we’ve seen with Amazon and Netflix in particular, the ability to own global rights for properties like the WWE and NBA drove these streamers to make strong bids for rights.
Olsen knows it won’t be an easy pill to swallow for players. The physical toll of each game is immense. But the league is clearly focused on international growth as its main mechanism to increase revenue, so the former star tight end expects that the NFLPA will ultimately go for the money as well.
Said Olsen: “The union will push back and there will be some guys who don’t really want to do it, but when they see their salaries go up and they see the salary cap continue to grow the way it has, I think … just like when they went to 17 games, everyone will complain, and then they’ll get over it.”
To be clear, the league and commissioner Roger Goodell haven’t exactly been shy about these plans. But it sounds like Olsen believes the league will create a permanent footprint overseas as soon as this decade.
The NFL will, of course, continue to increase revenue in the U.S. Broadcast rights-holders and sponsors will have to pay up to be associated with the biggest media entity in the country. But looking at the league’s ability to turn events like the NFL Draft and the combine into huge events and pepper games throughout the week, there is less territory left to conquer.
To keep growing at the rate that owners likely desire, Olsen believes the NFL has no choice but to build out a larger infrastructure overseas. Perhaps that will come with an additional bye week and an even longer schedule or a permanent team overseas, but one thing is sure: the NFL is coming for the world.
“The league is not going to stop growing. It’s not going to stop growing outside of the United States. It’s not going to [stop finding] international markets,” Olsen said. “That is the future of the NFL, is becoming a global sport. And from a business perspective, it’s very easy to see why.”