Summary
AI has ranked the Ballon d'Or nominees based on their chances of winning the award.
Only two players make the top category.
Scott McTominay in the same bracket as Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior.
With a new season upon us, it also means that the memories of the last are easy to reflect on. Which is perfect timing, with the Ballon d'Or ceremony less than two months away. The thirty nominees for the famous award have already been revealed, with players from Guinea to Argentina in the mix.
While the favourites may seem obvious, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. After all, it seemed all but guaranteed that Vinicius Junior had last year's trophy in his hands until Rodri swooped in and stole the gold. So, instead of us predicting who will earn the title of the best player in the world, we have instead enlisted the help of Grok AI to categorise all thirty nominees based on their chances of winning come the September gala.
No Chance of Winning
Kicking things off with the players that the AI believes simply have no chance of coming through victorious. For PSG star Gianluigi Donnarumma, it's a harsh assessment given his role in their treble, but then again, the fact he seems surplus to requirements at the club may speak volumes about his standing. There are also two Bayern Munich stars in this category too - Harry Kane and Michael Olise.
Inter Milan stars Denzel Dumfries and Lautaro Martinez may have had more of a chance if the Nerazzurri hadn't walked away without the Serie A and Champions League titles, but as the AI says, 'Inter’s lack of major success and his role limit them significantly.'
Serhou Guirassy was in top form for Borussia Dortmund and his goals earned him a place in the top 30, but that is likely to be all - with the same also being said for Viktor Gyokeres. Finally, Declan Rice is also set to walk away empty-handed because 'his role is too understated.'
Ballon d'Or Nominees - No Chance of Winning
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Harry Kane
Michael Olise
Denzel Dumfries
Lautaro Martinez
Serhou Guirassy
Viktor Gyokeres
Declan Rice
Huge Outsiders
The next bracket is for players who, realistically, aren't among the favourites but may just shock the world if those voting deem their roles in their teams' success worthy enough. Among those are PSG's Champions League-winning stars Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, both of whom starred in the latter stages of their European adventure.
PSG also had their share of domestic success, as did Barcelona as they reclaimed the La Liga title, which is why both Pedri and Robert Lewandowski have been nominated, but stand less of a chance than some of their other teammates. Meanwhile, Liverpool's Premier League title winners Virgil van Dijk and Alexis Mac Allister are also considered to have an outside chance.
Florian Wirtz will join the latter pair after completing a club-record move to Anfield, and his exploits at Bayer Leverkusen have him in the hat, but not with as good a chance as he had during their unbeaten Bundesliga season. Erling Haaland is also deemed an outsider due to 'Manchester City’s lack of major trophies.'
Who'd have envisioned Scott McTominay to be in this position this time last year? Not Roy Keane, that's for sure. But after being named the Serie A MVP in his debut season, the Scot is deemed to have as strong a chance of winning the Ballon d'Or as Real Madrid trio Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham - with the final two dropping considerably from their second and third-place finishes last year.
Ballon d'Or Nominees - Huge Outsiders
Desire Doue
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Pedri
Robert Lewandowski
Virgil van Dijk
Alexis Mac Allister
Florian Wirtz
Erling Haaland
Scott McTominay
Vinicius Jr
Jude Bellingham
Kylian Mbappe
In With a Shout
As the chances of victory grow, we begin to see more players from PSG emerging as a result of their incredible term under Luis Enrique. Out of the five players in this section, four are from the Parisian club, including full-backs Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes. There is also consideration for midfielders Fabian Ruiz and Joao Neves.
Standing above all of them though, is Cole Palmer. Despite early struggles in 2025, the Englishman pulled his form together to win the Best Player award at the Club World Cup, leaving the AI to state: "Starred in Chelsea’s Club World Cup triumph, earning Player of the Match in the final with two goals and an assist. His inconsistent league form earlier in the season keeps him from the top tier."
|Ballon d'Or Nominees - In With a Shout|
|Joao Neves|Paris Saint-Germain|
|Fabian Ruiz|Paris Saint-Germain|
|Nuno Mendes|Paris Saint-Germain|
|Achraf Hakimi|Paris Saint-Germain|
|Cole Palmer|Chelsea|
|---|
Hot Contenders
With 25 down, we are left with five. And had Barcelona won the Champions League, maybe Raphinha could've become the first Brazilian since Kaka in 2007 to claim the award, after his exploits in Europe saw him match Cristiano Ronaldo's best season in the competition.
Mohamed Salah was also a hot favourite when Liverpool were running rampant in the Premier League, as he looked to become the first African since George Weah to claim the Golden Ball, but the Reds' early Champions League elimination put a stop to that.
Finally, Vitinha is expected to put up a fight too - not only for his role in PSG's Champions League win, but also as a result of Portugal's Nations League triumph.
|Ballon d'Or Nominees - Hot Contenders|
|Raphinha|Barcelona|
|Mohamed Salah|Liverpool|
|Vitinha|Paris Saint-Germain|
|---|
One Hand on the Trophy
The top two on this list both have a chance of making history. First, Lamine Yamal, who the AI claims had "standout performances for Barcelona’s domestic treble and a strong showing in the Nations League. His youth and impact make him a close contender, though missing a European title may hinder him slightly." Should he win the trophy, he will be the youngest ever recipient.
As for Ousmane Dembele, if he is crowned champion, he will be the first player since George Weah to win the award without ever being nominated in years previous to his coronation. For him, the AI says: "Scored 35 goals and provided 16 assists in all competitions, instrumental in PSG’s treble (Ligue 1, French Cup, Champions League) and their Club World Cup runner-up finish. His explosive form, especially in the Champions League, makes him the bookmakers’ favourite."
|Ballon d'Or Nominees - One Hand on the Trophy|
|Lamine Yamal|Barcelona|
|Ousmane Dembele|Paris Saint-Germain|
|---|