There aren’t many big moves left in the 2025 NBA offseason. So it’s the perfect time to take stock of the league using our preseason TRACR rankings.
It’s no secret that the NBA news cycle is in a bit of a dry period, with the main storyline revolving around the four marquee restricted free agents.
This makes now the perfect time to start sorting out the hierarchy of the league heading into the 2025-26 NBA season.
But unlike most power rankings that are guided by arbitrary opinions, our list will be steered by our preseason TRACR.
How Preseason TRACR is Calculated
TRACR is a one-number metric that calculates how many points better or worse a team is relative to the rest of the league per 100 possessions. That part is pretty simple. But how can you project something like this before the season even begins? By looking at past data to inform how good and how healthy a team can project to be in 2025-26.
The analysis includes any player who has been active in the last year. For the sake of simplicity, the formula assumes that the core four restricted free agents (Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes, Jonathan Kuminga and Cam Thomas) and Al Horford will stay with their respective teams (although Horford remaining with the Celtics is highly unlikely).
Last year’s DRIP is then used to predict player game-level minutes. Anyone who is ranked lower than 10th on the roster in expected minutes is scaled down. So, the 12th man won’t factor too much into the calculus.
It is worth noting that this could underestimate young players who take a massive leap in performance, and therefore, see a major increase in playing time.
Preseason TRACR also accounts for availability. It looks at what percentage of games a player appeared in over the last three years and multiplied that by their baseline minutes we got from using DRIP. If a player has not played three years in the league, we just looked at the years that they have played.
Players who will miss the entire season were also accounted for, so guys like Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum are not included in their team’s DRIP calculation.
Now, with the ground rules established, here are our tiers based on preseason TRACR.
Bottom of the Barrel: Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz
The Wizards, Nets and Jazz being in this tier should come as no surprise to anyone. All three teams spent all of last season tanking for young talent and they doubled down on this by trading any worthwhile veterans they had for future draft capital.
The Hornets being here is a little more interesting. Despite adding useful rotation players like Collin Sexton, Pat Connaughton, Mason Plumlee and Spencer Dinwiddie, Charlotte is still expected to be one of the worst teams in the association.
The supercomputer’s lack of enthusiasm with the Hornets likely stems from the fact that all four of these players were negatives in DRIP last season.
Bad but Spunky: New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Phoenix Suns, Chicago Bulls
All the teams in this tier aren’t expected to be great, but for one reason or another, there’s a world in which they could be passable.
The Pelicans have Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy (28th in DRIP). The 76ers have their star-studded Big 3 (three players in the top 51). The Raptors are adding Brandon Ingram to a core of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett.
The Suns finally have some lineup balance after getting off Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, and the Bulls always seem to find a way to win 40 games.
It is also worth noting that this is the tier that gets dinged by our model accounting for past availability. The Pelicans, 76ers and Raptors have all struggled mightily with health to key players in the past.
So if they stay healthy this year, they could rise significantly in the rankings.
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Basketball Purgatory: Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Milwaukee Bucks, Memphis Grizzlies
This tier of teams is expected to compete for play-in/low-end playoff spots in their respective conferences. Not good enough to seriously compete, but also not bad enough to bottom out and tank – hence the tier name being “Basketball Purgatory.”
The Heat and Grizzlies were in the same boat last year. So their existence on this list seems fair. Giannis Antetokounmpo is ninth in the entire league in DRIP, and the Bucks did a great job signing well-fitting ancillary pieces like Myles Turner, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris. However, it might not be enough to overcome the loss of Damian Lillard.
The Spurs are likely being dinged by the 36 games Victor Wembanyama (No. 7 in DRIP) missed last season and the large number of young and unproven players on their roster (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Carter Bryant, etc.).
The biggest shock here is the Pistons. After finishing 12th in TRACR in 2024-25, they’re 19th in the new rankings despite retaining their five highest DRIP finishers from last season (Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed and Cade Cunningham).
This is likely due in large part to Cunningham only playing 144 games in the last three seasons. If he can move past his injury issues, the Pistons’ outlook brightens significantly.
TRACR Risers
Good, but Not a Contender: Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Sacramento Kings, Portland Trail Blazers
Even with the Pacers set to get no help from Haliburton (fourth in DRIP), the team is expected to be an above-average team (0.13 preseason TRACR).
The Magic and Hawks are two teams that everyone has been raving about this offseason. However, our model isn’t nearly as high on them. Even with the additions of Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, and Jase Richardson (a future stud guard in this league), Orlando is still projected to have the 23rd-ranked offense next season.
As for Atlanta, they are projected to be 11th in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) and 17th in D-TRACR. Teams with this statistical profile usually end up being middle-of-the-pack. The supercomputer is pretty high on the Kings – likely because their best players (Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray) tend to be pretty available.
The Blazers are projected to have a top-10 defense (ninth in D-TRACR) and above-average offense (12th in O-TRACR). They are the highest-rated team in this group (11th in TRACR).
Puncher’s Chance: Los Angeles Clippers, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers
This is the largest tier in our rankings and the perfect indicator of how many very good teams are in the league today. All these teams finished in the top seven in their respective conference last year, and our model points to them repeating the feat in 2025-26.
As we mentioned earlier, the Celtics’ expected TRACR is juiced by the assumption that Horford (89th percentile in DRIP) is returning next season. If he is removed from the equation, they will probably plummet to the tier below.
Outside of the Warriors (who are the favorite to land Horford), these teams have already made moves this offseason to improve their rosters. The Lakers tied for the biggest leap of any team, climbing 10 spots from where they were to end the season (14th in TRACR) to where they sit in the preseason rankings (fourth).
True Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves
TRACR ranks these teams a cut above other contending teams (nearly two points per possession better than anyone in the last tier). After finishing second in TRACR last year, the Cavaliers got even deeper, adding solid two-way role players in Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr.
They are the highest-rated team in the Eastern Conference.
Despite losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Timberwolves still seem to be a threat to make the Western Conference finals for the third-straight year. That’s probably because they are returning their top eight players in DRIP, including Anthony Edwards (11th) – a notorious iron man who has played in 96% of the team’s regular-season games over the last three seasons.
Preseason TRACR
World of Their Own: Oklahoma City Thunder
There is no question that the Thunder are the NBA’s best team again heading into 2025-26. After winning their first title in OKC, the Thunder brought back their top 12 players in total minutes played.
What is amazing is how far ahead of the rest of the league they are projected to be. The Thunder’s preseason TRACR is 10.3, with the next closest team (Minnesota) at 6.1.
That 4.2 TRACR difference is nearly as big as the gap between the Timberwolves and the 11th-ranked Trail Blazers (they have a gap of 4.4 points per 100 between them).
Are back-to-back titles on the horizon for reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder? It looks like a real possibility.
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