The Premier League returns for the 2025-26 season this week. Ahead of the action commencing, we focus on Manchester City and their bid to regain the title.
How Much of a Difference Will Rodri Make?
Manchester City’s 2024-25 season took a huge knock before it had barely started, as Rodri suffered an ACL injury just 21 minutes into his first start of the campaign in September.
It was always going to have an impact on City’s season. You don’t lose a player of such all-encompassing ability and not notice it, but most were probably still surprised to see them ultimately finish as many as 13 points behind champions Liverpool.
Now, that wouldn’t have just been down to Rodri’s absence, but it’s still fair to link the two, so influential is the Spaniard.
At the time of his injury, City had lost just one their previous 77 games across all competitions in which Rodri had featured, stretching back to February 2023. Over the same period, they’d lost five of the 16 matches he hadn’t appeared in.
During the time Rodri was out last season, City lost 16 times in all competitions. That was four more defeats than they’d suffered in any other full season under Pep Guardiola.
The reason why many would have directly linked City’s struggles with Rodri’s absence is how essential he is to their possession-based style of play.
For instance, in the 2023-24 season, he averaged 111.2 passes per 90 minutes with an accuracy of 92.3%. That was more passes per 90 than any other player from Europe’s top five leagues in all competitions; in fact, his average was 8.8 passes per 90 higher than anyone else.
That contributed to him setting a new Premier League record (since at least 2003-04) for successful passes (3,359) and successful passes in the opposition’s half (2,122) in a single season.
Rodri pass map Premier League 2023-24
He was the only Premier League player to average more than 100 successful passes per game (103), while no one saw as much of the ball as he did, his 126 touches per 90 being 24 more than any of his teammates in the competition.
He also led the Premier League rankings for shot-ending open-play sequence involvements per 90 (2,000+ mins played), with 8.4.
Rodri Importance Manchester City
But beyond his influence as City’s midfield metronome, Rodri elevated himself in 2023-24 to become a real force offensively, recording 22 goal involvements (9 goals, 13 assists), a new personal best for him in a single campaign.
The news that a groin strain he suffered in pre-season is likely to keep him out until at least the September international break comes as a blow, but City will hope to have him back for much more of this season than they had him last. You might say he’ll be like a new signing…
Who Will Pick up the Creative Slack From Kevin De Bruyne?
Speaking of actual new signings, there are a couple of new faces who fans will be hoping pick up some of the creative slack following the departure of Kevin De Bruyne to Napoli in the summer.
The Belgian will go down as one of the Premier League’s best ever players, leaving having tallied the second-most assists (119) and the joint-second most chances created (846) (since 2003-04).
Kevin De Bruyne chances created - Premier League all seasons
Even in more recent seasons, when De Bruyne became less of a presence due to injuries, he could still be frequently relied upon to create something out of nothing when on the pitch.
The De Bruyne era is no more, however. It’s now over to others to produce the creativity, and Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki will have roles to play there.
While Reijnders probably won’t ever have quite the same creative quality as De Bruyne, he is an exceptional passer between the lines and boasts press-resistant abilities when it comes to receiving passes and breaking forward.
Reijnders broke the opposition’s defensive line with a pass more times (47) than any other player in Serie A last season. He also ranked seventh for the number of times he broke the opposition’s midfield line (147).
Tijjani Reijnders defensive line-breaking passes
Many of them were played in behind the opposition’s full-backs, meaning that could be an avenue City look to exploit frequently this term, potentially leading to some inviting balls across the face of goal for Erling Haaland.
But Reijnders is also an attacking threat in his own right. He netted 10 Serie A goals last term, with his 77 shots the 10th most of all players in the division and more than any other non-striker, highlighting the positivity and purpose he offers from midfield.
And then there’s Cherki.
The Frenchman is a bit of a maverick and quite unpredictable. Whereas De Bruyne would be likely to whip in a teasing delivery to create a chance, Cherki might rely a little more on his trickery, flair and ability running with the ball.
For instance, he laid on 20 chances to teammates following a ball carry for Lyon last season, the fourth most in Ligue 1 and six more than any of his Les Gones colleagues.
But it must also be said that he was just a highly reliable creator in general, standing out head and shoulders above everyone else in Ligue 1. Bruno Fernandes (158) and Raphinha (152) were the only players from Europe’s top five leagues to create more chances than him (125) in all competitions. If you narrow that down to open play, only Fernandes (120), Raphinha (105) and Mohamed Salah (104) created more than his 100.
Cherki chances creation open play - 2024-25 all competitions
On a per-90 basis, however, Cherki’s impact becomes even more striking. No player across Europe’s top five leagues created more chances per 90 in all competitions than Cherki – both overall (3.7) and from open play (2.9) – among those to play at least 1,600 minutes. That’s how influential he was in 2024-25.
Exactly where he’ll fit in remains to be seen. While nominally a right-winger, he did most of his best work at Lyon from central positions as he was able to roam. Will he have that freedom at City? Or will he have to be more disciplined in where he operates?
Either way, his adaptation will be fascinating to watch as the Frenchman is such an exciting talent. Replacing De Bruyne is no small task, however.
What Does Rayan Aït-Nouri’s Arrival Mean for City’s Full-Backs?
In the past few years, Guardiola has often strayed away from deploying swashbuckling full-backs and instead used physical defenders who were more recognised as centre-backs.
This made them physically imposing but also generally ensured a certain degree of solidity at the back as those playing at right- and left-back weren’t necessarily the most adventurous in open play.
But Rayan Aït-Nouri’s signing from Wolves in the summer appears to represent something of a departure in that respect.
The Algeria international is a natural full-back, and a very adventurous one at that.
The only defender to register more than his 104 touches in the opposition’s box last term was Daniel Muñoz (112), while the Colombian (245) was also one of just two full-/wing-backs to make more off-ball runs into the box than Aït-Nouri (137).
Rayan Ait-Nouri touches in the opposition box
Furthermore, no defender matched Aït-Nouri’s 11 goal involvements in the Premier League last term.
Aït-Nouri excelled even in a team who struggled for a significant chunk of the campaign and he promises to offer a lot going forward for City.
The jury may still be out on how good a defender he is, though, while his style of play will be a considerable change to that of Josko Gvardiol.
Although the Croatian acquitted himself very well and made himself a real asset at full-back, Aït-Nouri will provide a greater degree of subtlety and creativity, both in terms of use of the ball and when running with it.
But does that mean Gvardiol will revert to being a centre-back? Or will Aït-Nouri be seen as a specialist for certain scenarios or matches?
There seems to be a high chance of Guardiola doing something slightly different in defence this season – there always is – but for better or worse?
Who Will Be First-Choice Goalkeeper By the End of the Season?
There won’t have been many clubs around Europe with a better pair of goalkeepers than City last season with Ederson and Stefan Ortega.
Seemingly, though, City felt it was necessary to add another to the equation, exercising their buy-back clause to re-sign James Trafford from Burnley in a deal potentially worth £31m.
Now, that would be a lot of money to spend on a goalkeeper who isn’t going to play very often.
But does Ederson need replacing?
According to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGOT) conceded model, Ederson enjoyed his best season in the Premier League last season. His saves were deemed to have prevented 5.4 goals over the course of the campaign, second only to Jordan Pickford (6.0). This was made even more impressive by the fact City faced the fewest shots of all top-flight teams last term.
On top of that, Ederson’s kicking – which has always been highly regarded – was arguably in the spotlight more than ever in 2024-25 as he tallied four assists, making him the first goalkeeper in Premier League history to set up more than two goals in a single season.
Ederson assists 2024-25
Trafford is also well regarded for his passing ability, perhaps unsurprisingly given he came through City’s academy, but he doesn’t have the same pedigree as Ederson yet.
Nevertheless, Trafford showed real progress in 2024-25.
Having struggled during his maiden Premier League season at Burnley in 2023-24, conceding 5.0 goals more than the average goalkeeper would’ve expected to according to xGOT data, he excelled last term.
His saves prevented 12.5 more goals than would’ve been expected based on the quality of chances faced; only Stoke City’s Viktor Johansson (15.8) was deemed to have had a better record in that respect in the Championship, and he faced far more shots on target (214) than Trafford (103), so he had much more chance to make saves.
James Trafford goals prevented
Trafford’s exploits here contributed to Burnley conceding just 16 goals in 46 Championship matches, averaging 0.35 per game, which was the best by any team ever in a single English Football League season.
Similarly, their 30 clean sheets matched the all-time record for an EFL season.
The outlook doesn’t appear particularly encouraging for Ortega, clearly. But beyond that, it’s difficult to predict who ends up winning the battle between Ederson and Trafford in the short-to-medium term unless the Brazilian leaves.
He had been linked with a move away earlier in the window, but those reports have since gone very quiet. So, this could be a tussle that rumbles on throughout the season.
Can Guardiola Get More From His Wide Players?
In 2024-25, Guardiola’s primary options in the wide berths were Savinho, Jérémy Doku, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, while Omar Marmoush split his time between a whole variety of roles after his January arrival.
The first four in that list managed just 12 Premier League goals between them. And seven of those came via Foden in what was probably the most underwhelming season of his career.
While Grealish looks set to leave, the others have been supplemented by the arrival of Rayan Cherki. Exactly where he’ll line up – on the right or as a number 10 – remains to be seen.
Regardless of Foden’s disappointing season, he remains a highly talented player. As recently as 2023-24 he had a hand in 27 Premier League goals, a figure most midfielders and wingers could only dream of.
Phil Foden Premier League goal involvements 2023-24
Whether he features centrally or out wide, he’ll be backed to improve this term. Meanwhile, Savinho showed glimpses of his talents and his start to life can probably be categorised under “fairly promising”.
The hope will be that he truly explodes in 2025-26. There have been plenty of examples of players taking a season or so to adapt to Guardiola’s methods, and so perhaps Savinho finds another level this term.
Doku feels like a more unique case. We all know that what sets him apart is his high-volume dribbling and his effectiveness in those situations. But he regularly attracts criticism for a perceived lack of quality in his final actions.
Jeremy Doku dribbles
In fairness to him, despite not being a regular starter, he has chipped in with 11 (2023-24) and nine (2024-25) goal involvements in the past two Premier League seasons, but will he ever get to a point where he’s a reliable source of creativity and goal threat?
If he does, he’ll be unstoppable.
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