History shows that for clubs outside the Premier League’s elite, qualifying for Europe often leads to a sharp drop in league performance. With Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace stepping into continental competition, how might they deal with that risk?
After hugely successful domestic campaigns last season, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace are looking forward to playing some European football.
For Forest, it’s a return to a stage they once dominated, famously winning the European Cup on two occasions under the legendary Brian Clough, but they’ve not been in European competition since 1995-96. They’ll play in the Europa League this season following Monday’s news that Palace had lost their appeal to the CAS against UEFA’s decision to demote them to the Conference League for breaching the governing body’s multi-club ownership rules.
Although Palace are far from happy about that outcome, they will still play in one of Europe’s main competitions for the first time in their history following their FA Cup victory over Manchester City back in May.
But with opportunity comes risk. One of the difficulties teams encounter when they try to balance European and domestic commitments is juggling their squads to compete on multiple fronts. And history suggests this usually results in a significant drop-off in a club’s league results.
The ‘big six’ traditionally play in Europe every season and typically have the resources and squad depth to cope with the busy schedule, but other clubs are rarely as well-equipped.
In fact, non-big-six teams who qualify for Europe win around nine points fewer in the league in the campaign immediately following qualification.
Only three non-big-six clubs have managed back-to-back European qualifications over the past decade, and just two improved their league points tally in that second campaign.
What’s more, only two teams have managed three consecutive seasons of European football outside the big six in the last decade: West Ham and Aston Villa.
Here’s how the “European hangover” has affected clubs in recent years.
2015-16 Season
The 2015-16 Premier League was unusual on so many levels. Leicester City ended the season as champions after finishing the previous campaign 14th. The Foxes only survived in 2014-15 after an incredible seven wins in their last nine league games dragged them out of trouble, saving them from a relegation that looked inevitable after they’d sat bottom at the start of April 2015.
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No one predicted what would happen the following season as they romped to the most unexpected title in recent memory.
After qualifying for the 2016-17 Champions League as Premier League winners, Leicester won their group and made it to the quarter-finals, where they were knocked out by Atlético Madrid. But the distractions of Europe had a severe knock-on effect in the league, and the Foxes won just 44 points – a fall of 37 compared to their previous campaign.
Leicester 2015-16 to 2016-17 finishes
Southampton and West Ham also both qualified for Europe for a second campaign in a row in the 2015-16 season after finishing sixth and seventh, respectively, with Liverpool and Chelsea finishing below them and missing out on the European spots.
2016-17 Season
Having had success with Southampton the previous season, new Everton boss Ronald Koeman repeated the trick by masterminding the club’s seventh-place finish in 2016-17 and earned the Toffees a spot in the Europa League.
After navigating the qualifying rounds, Everton struggled in the group stage and were eliminated, while in the league their form was patchy and they ended the season with 12 fewer points, albeit finishing only one position lower.
Everton 2016-17 to 2017-18 finishes
2017-18 Season
2017-18 was a record-breaking season as Manchester City finished with 100 points, a new milestone in the Premier League, but the surprise package of the season was Burnley, who finished seventh under Sean Dyche.
It wasn’t exactly a vintage campaign in general though as the Clarets achieved that position with just 54 points – the lowest total needed to finish seventh since 2008-09.
The following campaign would have stretched the club’s resources anyway, but they faltered at the qualifying stage in Europe, losing to Olympiakos.
Even without the regular distraction of midweek football, Burnley finished 15th with just 40 points.
Burnley 2017-18 to 2018-19 finishes
2018-19 Season
Wolves were the surprise package of 2018-19 and qualified for the Europa League by finishing seventh. Having been promoted from the Championship the previous campaign, Nuno Espírito Santo surprised everyone by guiding his side to such a lofty position.
Wolves then performed well in Europe in the COVID-affected 2019-20 season, losing to eventual winners Sevilla in the quarter-finals. They actually improved on their points tally (+2) in 2019-20 to finish seventh once again.
Unfortunately, eighth-placed Arsenal’s FA Cup win meant Wolves didn’t qualify for Europe in 2020-21.
Wolves 2018-19 to 2019-20 finishes
2019-20 Season
Leicester City forced their way back into European competition by finishing fifth in 2019-20. Despite exiting the Europa League the following campaign at the last-32 stage, they had a very good season domestically, finishing fifth again with four more points than in 2019-20. They also lifted the FA Cup to qualify for Europe for a second season in a row.
In doing so, Leicester became the first team outside the big six to achieve back-to-back European qualifications since Aston Villa did so between 2009 and 2011.
Their following European campaign came with mixed results. They were eliminated from the group stage of the Europa League but then dropped into the Conference League, where they made the semi-final.
However, their European exertions came with a 14-point drop-off in the league and the financial implications of not being in Europe hastened a decline that continued as the club were relegated in 2022-23.
Leicester League finishes 2019 to 2022
2020-21 Season
In 2020-21, David Moyes guided West Ham to sixth place and a record points haul of 65 in the Premier League.
The Hammers did perform worse in 2021-22, but despite earning seven points fewer, they finished seventh again and qualified for Europe.
In 2022-23, West Ham won the Europa Conference League to secure European football for a third consecutive season, but paid the price in the league as they only picked up 40 points and finished 14th. Of course, they had lost their captain and best player, Declan Rice, that summer.
They did do better the following campaign in the league and reached the Europa League quarter-finals thanks to a deeper squad and two years’ experience of competing in both domestic and European competition.
West Ham Premier League finishes 2020 to 2024
2022-23 Season
In 2022-23, Arsenal mounted a serious title challenge for the first time in a decade, Newcastle finished fourth under Eddie Howe’s guidance, Brighton qualified for the Europa League, and Aston Villa surged from 16th to 7th having parted ways with Steven Gerrad and appointed Unai Emery.
The following season, Newcastle struggled to cope with their busier schedule and hovered around upper mid-table for most of their domestic campaign, eventually finishing seventh with 11 points fewer than in 2022-23. They also finished bottom of their Champions League group.
Newcastle 2022-23 to 2023-24 finishes
Brighton also found the balancing act tough. After finishing 6th and earning a Europa League spot in 2022-23, they reached the last 16 before losing to Roma. But they slipped to 11th domestically and Roberto De Zerbi departed by mutual consent.
Brighton 2022-23 to 2023-24 finishes
Aston Villa, on the other han,d continued to blossom under Unai Emery and they reached the semi-final of the Europa Conference League, but also finished fourth in the league with seven more points, and qualified for the Champions League.
Going up another level in Europe didn’t seem to faze them, with Villa making a run to the quarter-finals of the Champions League in 2024-25, where they narrowly lost to eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain. Domestically, they picked up just two points fewer in the Premier League, narrowly missing out on the Champions League spots for 2025-26 after a controversial last-day defeat to Manchester United.
Aston Villa Premier League finishes 2022 to 2025
Given Emery’s outstanding record in Europe – where’s he won four Europa League crowns – perhaps Villa can be confident of another successful campaign.
Palace and Forest in 2025-26:
So, what does this mean for Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
The average decline in league performance over the last decade of non-big-six teams making an appearance in Europe is nine points.
Chopping nine points off each club’s Premier League tally from last season would mean a mid-table finish for Forest and push Palace down to just above the relegation zone.
The last club to be relegated after qualifying for Europe were Hull City in 2014-15, though they only qualified as FA Cup runners-up and had finished 16th the previous season, so their drop into the second tier wasn’t a huge surprise. Both teams will be confident of avoiding that ignominy.
Perhaps it’ll be Palace who will be able to cope better with their schedule given the lower quality of opposition in they’ll be facing in the Conference League. That will enable them to rotate their squad heavily and still focus on the league, as Chelsea did to good effect last season.
After all, English teams have thrived in the Conference League: four of five have reached the semi-finals (including Leicester, who dropped down from the Europa League), and two have won it in the last three seasons.
Forest, however, go into the Europa League, where the challenge is greater. Excluding Conference League participants, the average points drop-off is 14 points for clubs playing in Europe.
Despite the potential downside, what’s certain is that this season will be a thrilling new chapter for both sets of fans. For Forest, it’s a return to a legacy. For Palace, it’s a leap into the unknown. European nights await, but the impact it has on each team’s domestic form could be heavy.
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