Will João Pedro start for Chelsea against Crystal Palace - and should you have him in your FPL team?
While it’s always a little unwise to read too far into pre-season performances, it’s hard not to sit up and pay attention when a striker scores five goals in just four games before the big kick-off next weekend – but is João Pedro really going to become a Fantasy Premier League star this season?
The Brazilian was more a trap than anything else in the FPL while he was at Brighton & Hove Albion, but between warm-up games against Bayer Leverkusen and AC Milan and three Club World Cup appearances after his £60m move, he’s now scored five times in just 250 minutes of football.
That’s the kind of form that’s hard to ignore, especially when he’s down as a £7.5m forward in the game. But will João Pedro start over Liam Delap? How many minutes will the two forwards get? And should you sign either for your squad? As 3 Added Minutes’ resident FPL expert, I’ve taken a look…
Will João Pedro start for Chelsea against Crystal Palace?
There’s no doubt that João Pedro’s form in front of goal during the course of his short stint as a Chelsea player has been remarkably impressive, especially considering that his efficiency in converting chances point had actually been rather uninspiring prior to this point.
Scoring so many goals so quickly, some in consequential games in the Club World Cup and all against high-level opposition, means a lengthy list of FPL managers keen to snap him up ahead of strikers such as Chris Wood and Dominic Solanke, who sit at the same price point.
The good news for managers who want to buy him is that he looks very likely to be the starting centre-forward for Chelsea against Crystal Palace on Sunday, based not just on his form but on Maresca’s selection for the final pre-season match against Milan.
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With just two friendlies to play prior to the big kick-off, Maresca used the first game against Leverkusen to experiment with some fringe players such as Tyrique George and Josh Acheampong – and then played what looks a lot like his full-strength starting XI against Milan.
That starting XI included João Pedro, who scored Chelsea’s second goal of a 4-1 win before being substituted off for Delap in the second half. Given that the Brazilian also started the Club World Cup final, it seems fair to assume that Maresca has decided that João Pedro is a part of his best side for now – and it would be a major surprise if Delap was given the nod next weekend.
That means that players who are buying high on João Pedro’s form are unlikely to get stung by his starting on the bench. That said, the 23-year-old has yet to play a full 90 minutes for Chelsea, so don’t expect him to see out the match either.
Why FPL players should still be wary of buying João Pedro
While João Pedro seems overwhelmingly likely to be Chelsea’s early-season starter over Delap, there are still some good reasons to avoid picking him in your Fantasy Premier League team – not least the fact that Delap will get his minutes.
Delap was signed for £30m early in the transfer window and based on his performances with Ipswich Town is a much more efficient finisher. He, too, comes into the Premier League season with some confidence under his belt, having scored twice to wrap up that pre-season victory over Milan.
In short, it’s very likely that Delap comes on in most matches and gets the occasional early-season start over João Pedro, and he could take the Brazilian’s starting spot very swiftly if he hits form as João Pedro’s fades. It’s likely that the pair rotate over the course of the season to at least some degree, and it could happen quite quickly.
If João Pedro keeps scoring at his recent rate, of course, it won’t matter if he’s only averaging 60 minutes per match – but there is a reason that he was on my list of potential trap players to avoid this season, and that’s because he isn’t a historically efficient finisher.
Take away the penalty kicks he is unlikely to take for Chelsea (nobody is wrestling that ball off Cole Palmer) and in two seasons at Brighton the forward only scored 10 goals from a total xG of 12.9, an unimpressive conversion rate
It didn’t stop him from being a fine player from Brighton because he has many other qualities and was typically deployed in a deeper supporting role. It did, however, make him an unreliable FPL asset and the data suggests that João Pedro is unlikely to maintain his current rate of goal-scoring for any length of time.
Perhaps I’m proven horribly wrong, and there are worse ideas than gambling on a hot streak in the FPL, but it’s likely that between rotation and his habit of missing slightly too many chances, João Pedro is only a good asset in the game for a short period of time.
If you sign him, have a plan to transfer him out. Chelsea’s relatively soft early season fixtures strengthen the case for his inclusion, but he will very likely tail off at some stage and has to be seen as a gamble and as a player who needs to be transferred out quickly if the starts and goals both dry up.
Personally, I think there are better options at his price point. Chris Wood and Jean-Philippe Mateta are both more reliable goalscorers at £7.5m, and Wood also enjoys some pretty lenient early fixture difficulty while Mateta is a nailed-on penalty taker who will play 90 minutes almost every time and has just scored… five goals in four games. The same as João Pedro. Granted, one of them was against Crawley Town.
Incidentally, there isn’t a good case for starting the season with Delap in your side despite his budget-friendly £6.5m price point. There is every chance that he becomes an excellent buy as the season unfolds, but picking players who are set to start on the bench is a poor way to build a team, even when the price is low. One to watchlist and wait on.
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