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'30% chance' - why Alexander Isak to Liverpool remains open despite Newcastle United stance

Alexander Isak has been the talk of world football after trying to force a move to Liverpool from Newcastle United all summer.placeholder image

Alexander Isak has been the talk of world football after trying to force a move to Liverpool from Newcastle United all summer. | National World

Liverpool and Newcastle United’s transfer saga involving Alexander Isak rumbles on - so we tried to get some answers and solutions to the issue.

Less than three weeks out from the close of the transfer window and Alexander Isak remains a Newcastle United player. After weeks of sulking, the Swede has been yet to force through his desired move to Liverpool from Tyneside. And while a bid remains untabled, as yet, he has to face up to the prospect of remaining with the Magpies for the forthcoming season, although he will play no part in the season opener at Aston Villa on Saturday.

Isak missed the summer tour of Asia, then checked out to train away in Spain. Since then he has been banished to a late start, training away from his current/former teammates at Benton. And while an initial bid of £110million was thrown out by Newcastle, the Reds are yet to come in with anything close to what the Magpies will accept, especially as they’ve struggled to find, and complete a deal, for a suitable replacement.

So here we are, just days away from the 2025/26 season and Isak is no closer to knowing who he will line up for next season. We asked AI tool Grok to decide what the future holds for Isak - and here’s what it said.

Who will Alexander Isak play for this season - Newcastle United or Liverpool?

AI said: “Alexander Isak will play for Newcastle United during the 2025-2026 season. Despite interest from Liverpool and reports of a rejected bid, Newcastle's management and Saudi owners have firmly stated that Isak is not for sale this transfer window. The club has emphasized their intent to keep him, and he remains under contract with Newcastle until June 2028.”

Will Liverpool bid again for Alexander Isak this summer?

AI said: “As of August 12, 2025, there are conflicting reports about whether Liverpool will submit another bid for Alexander Isak this summer. Some sources indicate that Liverpool have no plans to make a second offer after Newcastle United rejected their initial £110m bid, viewing further attempts as futile unless Newcastle's stance changes. However, other reports suggest Liverpool remain interested and could return with an improved offer, potentially up to £140m, if Newcastle make progress on signing a replacement striker like Yoane Wissa.

“Isak has expressed a desire to leave Newcastle and is keen on joining Liverpool, which could push negotiations forward. Given Newcastle's firm £150m valuation and their reluctance to sell, combined with Liverpool's significant summer spending, a second bid seems uncertain and hinges on Newcastle's ability to secure a replacement.

“The transfer window closes on September 1, 2025, so any developments would need to happen soon. For now, no definitive second bid has been confirmed, and Liverpool's next move remains speculative.”

Alexander Isak to Liverpool - what percentage chance transfer goes through?

AI said: “Estimating the percentage chance of Alexander Isak transferring to Liverpool this summer (before the transfer window closes on September 1, 2025) is speculative, but based on available information, I’d assign it a 30% chance.

“This estimate is based on current reports and sentiment, but transfer dynamics can change rapidly, especially with nearly three weeks left in the window.”

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